National Intelligence Council: The Biological Warfare Threat, January 2001

National Intelligence Council: The Biological Warfare Threat, January 2001 Released: 2017-10-31 The Black Vault Entry: https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/national-intelligence-council-biological-warfare-threat-january-2001/ Canonical PDF: https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/cia/nic-biowarfare.pdf This document, released in 2017, is a report from the National Intelligence Council, dated January 2001, assessing the biological warfare threat. The report was declassified and made available through a Freedom of Information Act request. The document was processed by the Central Intelligence Agency in accordance with the FOIA, 5 U.S.C. § 552, as amended, and the CIA Information Act, 50 U.S.C. § 3141, as amended. The CIA determined that the document, consisting of seven pages, could be released in its entirety. The Biological Warfare Threat The biological warfare (BW) capabilities of state and nonstate actors are growing worldwide. This trend leads us to believe that the risk of an attack against the United States, its interests, and allies will increase in the coming years. In addition, the United States would be affected by the use of BW agents anywhere in the world - a strong possibility in the years ahead. Washington probably would be called upon to help contain conflicts or deal with a terrorist attack in which biological agents were used - either overtly or covertly - or to provide scientific expertise and humanitarian assistance to deal with their effects. Biological weapons lend themselves to covert development and use; a deliberately initiated disease outbreak can be difficult to distinguish from an infectious disease that occurs naturally. The intentional introduction of disease to a susceptible vector can be very costly politically, economically, and in terms of human life. Although the preparation and effective use of BW agents by both states and nonstate actors are more difficult than some popular literature seems to suggest, the degree of difficulty varies with the specific biological agent sought and the sophistication of the dispersal mechanism. Mature BW programs may include extensive research and development efforts on pathogens to improve their virulence, stability, and resistance to detection and vaccines or treatments. Such BW programs also have the means to produce large quantities of biological agents and the means to optimize their delivery. The materials for a simple, unsophisticated biological agent delivery device are widely available. A state or nonstate actor with the objective of causing some limited casualties and creating panic probably could design and assemble the components for a crude biological device and develop an unsophisticated method of agent dispersal. Biological Warfare Agents Biological agents - living microorganisms or their derivatives, including bacteria, viruses, fungi, and toxins - could be used to target humans as well as crops and animals. Many biological agents are found naturally in the environment but vary considerably in transmissibility, infectivity, and virulence or toxicity. A biological attack could mimic a natural disease outbreak, making it extremely difficult to identify the incident as an attack. A nonstate group or individual pursuing a biological weapons capability is more likely to choose bacteria, fungi, or toxins; such agents are generally easier to handle and produce and require less specialized production equipment than viruses. Bacteria are single-celled organisms that include the causative agents of anthrax, brucellosis, tularemia, plague, and many other diseases. Rickettsiae are a genus of bacteria that cause diseases such as typhus, Q fever, and Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Rickettsiae differ from most other types of bacteria in that they require a host cell for replication. Viruses are organisms that contain DNA or RNA and require other living cells to replicate. Examples of viruses that could be used for BW include smallpox, Ebola, Marburg, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis. Fungi are "plant-like" multi-cellular organisms that can cause diseases in humans, animals, and plants. Fungal spores can be dispersed through the air, water, or soil, and can be used as biological agents. This is what the public record looks like at its most ordinary. The document is available at storyflo.com and at the canonical PDF link provided.