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This is Declassified. Today, we examine a declassified C-I-A record titled "Political, Economic, and Military Trends in the Far East." This report, dated December eighteenth, nineteen-fifty-one, provides an intelligence analysis of enemy activities during the Korean War, and possible future actions. This document is available on documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was released under the Freedom of Information Act by the C-I-A, declassified on July ninth, two-thousand-four. It bears the mark O-S-D Review Completed, indicating it underwent review by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The document begins: "Political, Economic and Military Trends in the Far East, eighteen December nineteen-fifty-one. This estimate consists of an analysis of trends throughout the Far East during the past six months in the military, political and economic fields. Its purpose is to determine the answer to three basic questions: First, do Communist trends provide any indication of the prospects of a military armistice in Korea? Second, in the event of a failure to reach an armistice agreement, do these same trends provide clues to the next Communist move in the Far East? And third, in the event that a military armistice is successfully concluded, do these trends reveal the Communist intentions thereafter? In order to provide an appropriate background for this analysis of trends, Communist capabilities in the Far East are established as follows: One. To conclude a military armistice in Korea, and thereafter, as a result of lessened U-N pressure, resort to an invasion of Formosa or the commitment of military forces in Southeast Asia. Two. In the event of a failure to reach a successful armistice agreement in Korea, to increase the commitment of Chinese Communist forces in Korea and to commit Soviet forces in Korea. Three. In the event that the commitment of Soviet forces in Korea is accepted as the prelude to World War three, to invade Hokkaido and northern Honshu with Soviet forces. With these capabilities in mind, the trends will be analyzed in the following sequence: First, the trends in Korea in the political and military fields, exclusive of air activity; second, air trends throughout the Far East, not only in Korea and Manchuria, but in China and the U-S-S-R as well; and thereafter, the trends in the military, political and economic fields in China, the U-S-S-R and in Southeast Asia. Korea. The first requirement is to estimate the probabilities of a military armistice in Korea. It is now believed that the enemy probably conceived the idea of an armistice as a result of his abortive Fifth Phase Offensive, April to May nineteen-fifty-one. It was then that the enemy leaders realized that any further large-scale attacks under the then-existing conditions were not only futile but terribly wasteful. The enemy leaders were thus confronted with three broad courses of future action. These courses of action were: One. Continue the stalemate. Two. Terminate the…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

Political, Economic, And Military Trends In The Far East.

◆ BLUF — The short version

This is Declassified. " This report, dated December eighteenth, nineteen-fifty-one, provides an intelligence analysis of enemy activities during the Korean War, and possible future actions. com. This document was released under the Freedom of Information Act by the C-I-A, declassified on July ninth, two-thousand-four.

Date: OCT 15 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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This is Declassified. Today, we examine a declassified C-I-A record titled "Political, Economic, and Military Trends in the Far East." This report, dated December eighteenth, nineteen-fifty-one, provides an intelligence analysis of enemy activities during the Korean War, and possible future…

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What was Political, Economic, And Military Trends In The Far East. about?: This is Declassified. " This report, dated December eighteenth, nineteen-fifty-one, provides an intelligence analysis of enemy activities during the Korean War, and possible future actions. com. This document was released under the Freedom of Information Act by the C-I-A, declassified on July ninth, two-thousand-four.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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Political, Economic, And Military Trends In The Far East.

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