Stark gap+95 ptsEntertainmentvia kalshi
Dune vs Avengers: Highest Rotten Tomatoes Score Dune: Part Three vs Avengers: Doomsday
Market more confident than the press
storyflo · markets
Where prediction marketsmeet the news.
storyflo narrates the day's markets journalism and measures where prediction markets diverge from the news narrative — the Divergence Index. Kalshi and Polymarket are editorial sources here: storyflo reports where they disagree with the press, not what to trade.
storyflo's own computed analysis — not odds, not forecasts, not investment advice.
Today's briefing
Daily Finance & Markets Brief · September 11th
storyflo · finance & markets·today
The Divergence Index
Updated weeklyThe biggest gaps right now
The events where prediction markets most disagree with the news narrative — ranked by the gap between the market-implied story and the narrated record. storyflo's own analysis; the full ranked index lives on the Divergence Index.
Stark gap-88 ptsPoliticsvia kalshi
Will the U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement enter into force? the bilateral U.S.–Saudi agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation under Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act has entered into force and become legally operative between the two governments
Press leans further than the market
Stark gap-83 ptsEconomicsvia kalshi
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September Sep 28, 2026 meeting
Press leans further than the market
Stark gap-82 ptsElectionsvia kalshi
Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt? in 2026
Press leans further than the market
Stark gap-76 ptsEntertainmentvia kalshi
How many Emmys will 'The Pitt' win? 78th Emmy Awards - The Pitt
Press leans further than the market
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Today's curated set
Storyflo's agent monitors thousands of partner publishers and promotes stories into the trending feed when they get multiple sends or operator curation.
Elliott Wave 2.0·2 min
Another week delivered at EW 2.0
This week, 21 updates rolled out from the EW 2.0 team, focusing on structure and execution rather than the usual market noise. They've mapped out 40 crypto assets ahead of time, setting targets for the rally when prices were low, not in hindsight. It’s all about patience and discipline, emphasizing data-driven decisions. Throughout the week, they delivered video analyses on key assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL, alongside insights on altcoins like SHIB, XRP, and ALGO. The macro update included cycle positioning and breakout lines, reinforcing that structure comes first, and price action will confirm the rest. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports BTC — link in show notes.
Ken Klippenstein·4 min
Fuck 9/11
Twenty-five years post-9/11, the anniversary has shifted into a fundraising spectacle for the security state. Families remember their loved ones while institutions that failed to prevent the attacks push narratives of vigilance and cash flow. A memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizes the need to stay alert, but it feels hollow against the backdrop of past failures. The initial outpouring of global sympathy has morphed into a cash grab, with political elites turning the tragedy into a self-congratulatory saga. Accountability remains elusive, and discussions often overlook the warnings that preceded the attacks. The real legacy of 9/11 is a shift toward a national security state that prioritizes funding over genuine remembrance. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.
Economics Matters by Laurence Kotlikoff·—
Mr. Fiscal Policy, Eugene Steuerle, is Back to Discuss "Abandoned -- How Democrats and Republicans Have Deserted the Working Class, the Young, and the American Dream"
Worried about $40 trillion in federal debt? Worried about Social Security cutting your benefits by one fifth in six years? Worried that the US is in far worse fiscal shape than Italy?
Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion·2 min
Is the Bottom In For SPX? September 14 Plan
The ES dipped to 7586 yesterday, but bulls stepped in to buy. This dip was part of a familiar pattern where institutions accumulate during failed breakdowns. They often use these moments to trap shorts, creating liquidity for a swift price recovery. After hitting that low, the market bounced back, reclaiming the previous support levels around 7622/27 and pushing up to 7671+. The key takeaway is that the bulls seem to have regained control, at least for now. If they can maintain this momentum, we might see further gains. Keep an eye on those failed breakdowns; they’re crucial for understanding market moves. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.
Capital Flows·6 min
The Price Of Surviving Monetary Regime Change
The macro landscape has shifted significantly, with capital flows now heavily influenced by sovereign debt risks. The reality is that a sovereign debt crisis doesn’t equate to endless gains for risk assets. When currencies are devalued, traders often exit those assets, as returns are diminished by inflation and hedging costs. We’re seeing a stark drawdown in bonds, which is dragging down equities as well. Inflation isn’t just a concern for bonds; it can also impact equities negatively, as we learned from the 70s. The misconception that inflation benefits equities overlooks how it actually reduces liquidity and purchasing power. We’re in a precarious environment, and with rising volatility, it’s crucial to actively manage risk. Scott Bessent’s narrative about inflation being merely a supply shock misses the larger structural issues at play, particularly with interest rates being influenced by government spending and energy prices. The Fed's current stance remains overly accommodative, which keeps bonds under pressure. As we look ahead, understanding the interplay of these factors will be key to navigating the market. If you’re curious about low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.
Cartoons Hate Her·2 min
What I Wore For the End of Summer
So, summer wrapped up for me in early August, and I wanted to share some of my favorite outfits from my travels before diving into fall. First up, Bruges. It was a day trip from Paris, and I was reminded of a past visit during a rainstorm when my husband and I ended up in a cozy underground pub. This time, the city was buzzing with tourists, which was a bit of a shock. I opted for a comfy lime green coord set from FRNCH, paired with my trusty Camper Twins shoes, perfect for all the walking. Then there was Antibes, where I had a fun beach meet-up. I didn’t exactly nail the outfit there—just tossed on some beachy clothes, including a pajama top, because, let’s be real, a bikini shot wouldn’t have been appropriate. But I did have a standout look: satin pull-on pants from FRNCH and a cute navy gingham halter top I found at a local pop-up. It’s all about finding those little gems, right?
phildauber·9 min
Never Forget
Today, the 30-year yield hit 5.37% and the 10-year at 4.95%, both at a 52-week high. The market seems to be pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed hike, but there’s a sense that this is more about hedging against persistent inflation rather than a direct response to demand. Brent crude settled at 107.63, influenced by geopolitical headlines, while WTI traded around 99.94. Kroger’s Q2 EPS beat expectations, but they lowered their full-year sales forecast, which might reflect broader retail challenges. It’s a mixed bag, with some signals pointing to caution as we navigate these economic waters. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.
QTR’s Fringe Finance·3 min
A Dark Horse Way To Short The Market
Please read my full disclaimer at the bottom of this post and on my “About” page. I’ve been increasingly vocal about the possibility that the AI bubble could pop sooner rather than later.
Kerry Lutz's Financial Survival Network Substack·8 min
The Silver Roller Coaster, Part 3: The Crash Before the Biggest Move in History
Silver investors have experienced enough motion sickness for one lifetime.
Elliott Wave 2.0·26s
🚨ORBS + SEI + XLM 🚨
Looks like three new assets just joined the EW 2.0 crypto universe: ORBS, SEI, and XLM. Each one’s been analyzed through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, which means they’re looking at cycle positioning and market structure to figure out where they might be headed next. For ORBS, it’s about finding that sweet spot in the cycle, while SEI is getting attention for its potential breakout lines. XLM is also in the mix, with some overhead resistance to watch. The focus here is on patience and letting the price action confirm the analysis. So, if you’re keeping an eye on these assets, it’s all about understanding their current positions and what the waves might be signaling for the future. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports XLM — link in show notes.