The Divergence Index
Where the markets disagree with the press
Storyflo's Market-vs-Media Divergence Index measures where prediction markets disagree with the news. For each event Storyflo computes the gap between the market-implied probability and the probability the news narrative implies, then ranks events by that gap — surfacing where the market most disagrees with the press. It updates weekly.
Storyflo is the only newsroom that holds both the prediction-market-implied probability and a narrated-news corpus for the same event — so it can measure the gap between them. This index is Storyflo's own computed analysis. Read the methodology →
Last updated August 17, 2026 · 2,453 markets scanned · 23,548 stories
Top 25 divergences right now
Ranked by |divergence|- 1Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Popeyes Classic Chicken Sandwich price in August 2026 August 2026
Divergence+95 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 2Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song Global Aug 14 - Aug 20, 2026
Divergence-84 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 3Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Next Miami Vice film: Cast Before 2035
Divergence-81 ptsNews narrative92%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 4Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
US labor force participation rate at year-end 2026 December 2026
Divergence-80 ptsNews narrative85%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 5Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Quantum computer
Divergence-77 ptsNews narrative81%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 6Stark gapFinancialsvia kalshi
Airbnb bookings in Q3 nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026
Divergence+73 ptsNews narrative15%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 7Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Trump's second term
Divergence-71 ptsNews narrative78%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 8Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will Congress keep 5mg hemp THC beverages federally legal? legislation allowing finished hemp-derived beverages containing at least 5 milligrams of total THC per retail container to remain hemp under federal law
Divergence+70 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 9Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
DeepSeek market share this week DeepSeek market share - Aug 16, 2026
Divergence-70 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 10Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
New business applications monthly record in 2026? 2026
Divergence+69 ptsNews narrative22%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 11Stark gapFinancialsvia kalshi
Lockheed Martin F-35 deliveries in fiscal 2026 f-35 aircraft deliveries in 2026
Divergence+64 ptsNews narrative30%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 12Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? In 2026
Divergence-61 ptsNews narrative75%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 13Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026? Before 2027
Divergence+61 ptsNews narrative12%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 14Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Coyote vs. Acme · Rotten Tomatoes score Coyote vs. Acme
Divergence-61 ptsNews narrative96%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 15Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent Vote Percent - Dan Bilzerian
Divergence+59 ptsNews narrative20%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 16Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions? Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School
Divergence-56 ptsNews narrative95%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 17Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Will Ariana Madix Host Love Island USA Season 9? Love Island USA Season 9
Divergence+55 ptsNews narrative20%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 18Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
FL-20 Democratic primary: Debbie Wasserman Schultz vote percent Vote Percent - Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Divergence+55 ptsNews narrative32%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 19Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Chris Brown Streams in 2026 Chris Brown: January 01 - December 31, 2026
Divergence+54 ptsNews narrative38%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 20Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Tyler, The Creator Streams in 2026 Tyler, The Creator: January 01 - December 31, 2026
Divergence+49 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 21Stark gapClimate and Weathervia kalshi
EU meets its 2030 climate goals? By 2030
Divergence+48 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 22Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? in 2026
Divergence+45 ptsNews narrative35%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 23Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
Gemini market share this week Google market share - Aug 16, 2026
Divergence+45 ptsNews narrative15%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
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- 24Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Taiwan Local Elections winner? in 2026
Divergence-45 ptsNews narrative50%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 25Stark gapCompaniesvia kalshi
Will Tesla release a two door Model Y car for $30,000 or less before 2027? In 2027
Divergence-45 ptsNews narrative50%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage