The Divergence Index
Where the markets disagree with the press
Storyflo's Market-vs-Media Divergence Index measures where prediction markets disagree with the news. For each event Storyflo computes the gap between the market-implied probability and the probability the news narrative implies, then ranks events by that gap — surfacing where the market most disagrees with the press. It updates weekly.
Storyflo is the only newsroom that holds both the prediction-market-implied probability and a narrated-news corpus for the same event — so it can measure the gap between them. This index is Storyflo's own computed analysis. Read the methodology →
Last updated November 14, 2026 · 188 markets scanned · 29,546 stories
Top 25 divergences right now
Ranked by |divergence|- 1Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by...? On November 12, 2026, NVIDIA announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of its Board of Directors, effecti
Divergence-87 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 2Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date,
Divergence-85 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 3Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Who will be the next Speaker of the House? Before 2031
Divergence-75 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 4Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
When will Texas enact a state income tax? Before 2030
Divergence-73 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 5Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Fed Decision in December? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made
Divergence-72 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 6Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Next CEO of NVIDIA? This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Jensen Huang as CEO of NVIDIA Corporation by December
Divergence-71 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 7Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Jensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31? On November 8, 2026, Jensen Huang sent a message to NVIDIA employees in which he stated “I was unfaithful to my wife.” The message did not name the woman involv
Divergence-67 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 8Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Oregon State vs. Boise State In the upcoming college football game between Oregon State and Boise State, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET (as of creation o
Divergence-65 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 9Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Jensen Huang divorce by...? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen or Lori Huang file for divorce or announce their definitive intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Divergence-65 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 10Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 14? This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Nov 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the
Divergence-64 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 11Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election? Before Oct 28, 2030
Divergence-62 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 12Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 202
Divergence-61 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 13Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Los Angeles Mayor winner? In 2030
Divergence-61 ptsNews narrative100%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 14Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and s
Divergence-60 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 15Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Ethereum Up or Down on November 14? This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Nov 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the
Divergence-58 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 16Stark gapCompaniesvia kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Divergence-58 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 17Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any dat
Divergence-56 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 18Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Will Trump bring back manufacturing? In Q4 2028
Divergence-56 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 19Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is comple
Divergence-56 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- Trump says U.S. military action against Iran not necessary ‘at this point’
- Trump says further military action against Iran ‘doesn’t seem necessary,’ reveals Tehran is talking
- Morning Digest: Trump says U.S. military action against Iran not necessary ‘at this point’; U.K. writer M. John Harrison wins Booker for AI-tinged apocalyptic novel, and more
- 20Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11
Divergence-55 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 21Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Bitcoin price on November 14? This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date
Divergence-55 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 22Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of
Divergence-50 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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- 23Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to pu
Divergence-50 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 24Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
2030 Brazil Presidential election winner? (Party) in 2030
Divergence-50 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 25Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Will the National Popular Vote compact reach 270 electoral votes? Before 2034
Divergence-49 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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