The Divergence Index
Where the markets disagree with the press
Storyflo's Market-vs-Media Divergence Index measures where prediction markets disagree with the news. For each event Storyflo computes the gap between the market-implied probability and the probability the news narrative implies, then ranks events by that gap — surfacing where the market most disagrees with the press. It updates weekly.
Storyflo is the only newsroom that holds both the prediction-market-implied probability and a narrated-news corpus for the same event — so it can measure the gap between them. This index is Storyflo's own computed analysis. Read the methodology →
Last updated September 30, 2026 · 3,118 markets scanned · 24,827 stories
Top 25 divergences right now
Ranked by |divergence|- 1Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October? Before 2026
Divergence-95 ptsNews narrative100%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 2Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the
Divergence-86 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 3Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Ed Sheeran Loop Tour · Number of Dates Cancelled Before Dec 12, 2026
Divergence-85 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 4Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Who will perform at Las Vegas Sphere in 2027?
Divergence-82 ptsNews narrative99%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 5Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl · The Encore: First Week Pure Album Sales The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore | September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026
Divergence-76 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 6Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Stranger Things: New season announced this year? Before 2027
Divergence-76 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 7Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
When will Elder Scrolls VI be released? Before 2028
Divergence-76 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 8Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next? This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2
Divergence-76 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 9Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Bank of England rate decision in December Dec 17, 2026 meeting
Divergence-75 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 10Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
When will Big Bend border construction resume? Big Bend National Park
Divergence-75 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 11Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Trump's second term
Divergence-75 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 12Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Brooklyn Beckham: Seen in public with David or Victoria Beckham in 2026? Before Jan 1, 2027
Divergence-74 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 13Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will Netanyahu be arrested? Benjamin Netanyahu
Divergence-74 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 14Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? Mandatory independent AI safety evaluations or audits
Divergence-73 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 15Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
Divergence-73 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 16Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Divergence-73 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 17Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent? Before Jan 1, 2027
Divergence-72 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 18Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
US imports of goods from China in 2026
Divergence-71 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 19Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods? Before Jan 1, 2027
Divergence-70 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 20Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent? Product feature rollout
Divergence-69 ptsNews narrative90%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 21Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
New main Fast & Furious film officially announced in 2026? Before 2027
Divergence-69 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 22Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album · Features XXX - Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album
Divergence-68 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 23Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
James Bond · Release Date
Divergence-68 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 24Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by De
Divergence-67 ptsNews narrative70%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 25Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? During Trump's term
Divergence-66 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage