The Divergence Index
Where the markets disagree with the press
Storyflo's Market-vs-Media Divergence Index measures where prediction markets disagree with the news. For each event Storyflo computes the gap between the market-implied probability and the probability the news narrative implies, then ranks events by that gap — surfacing where the market most disagrees with the press. It updates weekly.
Storyflo is the only newsroom that holds both the prediction-market-implied probability anda narrated-news corpus for the same event — so it can measure the gap between them. This index is Storyflo's own computed analysis. Read the methodology →
Last updated July 2, 2026 · 50 markets scanned · 17,779 stories
Top 2 divergences right now
Ranked by |divergence|- 1Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
Largest Company end of July? This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be
Divergence+80 ptsNews narrative10%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 2Stark gapPolymarketvia polymarket
NFL Champion 2027 This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the
Divergence-46 ptsNews narrative50%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
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