The Divergence Index
Where the markets disagree with the press
Storyflo's Market-vs-Media Divergence Index measures where prediction markets disagree with the news. For each event Storyflo computes the gap between the market-implied probability and the probability the news narrative implies, then ranks events by that gap — surfacing where the market most disagrees with the press. It updates weekly.
Storyflo is the only newsroom that holds both the prediction-market-implied probability and a narrated-news corpus for the same event — so it can measure the gap between them. This index is Storyflo's own computed analysis. Read the methodology →
Last updated August 16, 2026 · 2,479 markets scanned · 24,774 stories
Top 25 divergences right now
Ranked by |divergence|- 1Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Stranger Things: New episode this year? Before Jan 1, 2027
Divergence-96 ptsNews narrative100%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 2Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent Vote Percent - Randy Fine
Divergence+95 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 3Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Popeyes Classic Chicken Sandwich price in August 2026 August 2026
Divergence+95 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 4Stark gapFinancialsvia kalshi
Miller Lite Point of Sale Growth in August August 2026
Divergence+94 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 5Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent Vote Percent - Abdul El-Sayed
Divergence-92 ptsNews narrative96%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 6Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
Minnesota Democratic gubernatorial primary: Amy Klobuchar vote percent Vote Percent - Amy Klobuchar
Divergence-92 ptsNews narrative96%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
- 7Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Tyler, The Creator Streams in 2026 Tyler, The Creator: January 01 - December 31, 2026
Divergence+92 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 8Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
MacBook base model price on Black Friday on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Divergence+85 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 9Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Next Miami Vice film: Cast Before 2035
Divergence-81 ptsNews narrative92%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 10Stark gapCompaniesvia kalshi
When will Apple release the iPhone 18? iPhone 18
Divergence-78 ptsNews narrative85%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 11Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Bank of England rate decision in September Sep 17, 2026 meeting
Divergence+78 ptsNews narrative15%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 12Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Quantum computer
Divergence-77 ptsNews narrative81%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 13Stark gapFinancialsvia kalshi
Amazon headcount in Q3 employees (full-time & part-time, excl. contractors/temps) in Q3 2026
Divergence+75 ptsNews narrative7%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 14Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
FL-19 Republican primary: Catalina Lauf vote percent Vote Percent - Catalina Lauf
Divergence-75 ptsNews narrative92%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 15Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
Number of US data centers in 2026? 2026
Divergence+74 ptsNews narrative22%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 16Stark gapElectionsvia kalshi
How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries? in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026
Divergence-72 ptsNews narrative92%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 17Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
First Week Sales: Lost Weekend vs WILD Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers vs WILD by KATSEYE
Divergence+72 ptsNews narrative20%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 18Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Trump's second term
Divergence-71 ptsNews narrative78%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 19Stark gapPoliticsvia kalshi
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/10 - 8/16) 8/10 - 8/16
Divergence-69 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 20Stark gapScience and Technologyvia kalshi
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? Before 2027
Divergence-68 ptsNews narrative80%Storyflo-computedPress leans further than the market.
Storyflo coverage
- 21Stark gapEconomicsvia kalshi
Americas data center capacity at the end of 2026 2026
Divergence+67 ptsNews narrative27%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 22Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027? Eurovision 2027
Divergence+66 ptsNews narrative22%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 23Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Who will be featured on Travis Scott's next album? before 2027
Divergence+65 ptsNews narrative0%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
- 24Stark gapEntertainmentvia kalshi
Resident Evil · Rotten Tomatoes score Resident Evil
Divergence+62 ptsNews narrative22%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage
- 25Stark gapSocialvia kalshi
Will NYC add a new 3 Michelin Star restaurant in 2026? In 2026
Divergence+62 ptsNews narrative8%Storyflo-computedMarket more confident than the press.
Storyflo coverage