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Daily Finance & Markets Brief · September 30th

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storyflo · finance and markets·5 min

Daily Finance & Markets Brief · September 30th

This is your daily audio brief. Here's what I'd flag before the open. First, from Bloomberg · Markets. FTSE 100 Live: UK Stocks Set for Rebound, Pound Reverses Decline.

DeLong's Grasping Reality: Economy in the 2000s & Before·8 min

CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent’s reputation is taking a serious hit after his recent antics as Treasury Secretary. He confidently declared himself “the house now” while trying to support the yen and push down long-term interest rates, but that’s backfired spectacularly. With crude oil prices spiking after Trump’s rejection of an Iranian peace proposal, inflation is staying elevated, which means the Fed is keeping short-term rates high. This environment is making it nearly impossible for Bessent to achieve his goals, and his bold predictions about Iran's economy collapsing soon seem increasingly far-fetched. The irony here is that Bessent had a solid reputation before joining the Trump administration. Now, he's become a figure of ridicule, likened to "Baghdad Bob" for his overconfidence in the bond market. The political landscape is unforgiving, and it seems anyone who aligns with Trump risks losing their credibility entirely. It’s a cautionary tale about the costs of sycophancy in today’s political climate. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

DeLong's Grasping Reality: Economy in the 2000s & Before·3 min

The Ten-Year Treasury Bond: CHART OF THE DAY

The ten-year US Treasury interest rates have jumped to 5.25%, and it’s not just about the Iran War and inflation. There’s a significant AI-driven investment boom happening, which is likely contributing to this spike. The traditional safe-asset premium that made US debt so appealing is being eroded by the sheer volume of debt now out there. Paul Krugman highlights four key factors influencing this situation: the war and inflation affecting oil supplies, the AI investment surge, the diminishing safe-asset premium, and the fiscal challenges not just in the US but also in countries like France and the UK. While inflation and debasement could be players here, the evidence suggests that the AI boom and the erosion of the safe-asset premium are the main drivers. It’s a complex landscape, and the dynamics could shift quickly if perceptions change about what constitutes a safe asset. So, keep an eye on how these factors evolve; they could really shape the market moving forward. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Economics Matters by Laurence Kotlikoff·—

Betsy Stevenson, Former Department of Labor Chief Economist and University of Michigan Professor

Betsy Stevenson, a prominent figure in economics, is making waves with her insights. As a professor at the University of Michigan and former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, she brings a wealth of experience to the table. Her work spans various economic topics, particularly focusing on labor markets and the impact of public policies on families. Stevenson's impressive credentials include serving on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and being part of the Biden-Harris transition team at the U.S. Treasury. She's also a board member at Lyft and has contributed significantly to economic literature, coauthoring textbooks that are used globally. Her research delves into women’s labor market experiences and the economic forces shaping modern families, providing a nuanced understanding of how these dynamics affect the broader economy. If you’re looking for a deeper understanding of these issues, check out her episode on the Economics Matters podcast, hosted by Laurence Kotlikoff. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion·3 min

Will Today’s SPX Dip Setup The Next Leg Higher? September 30th Plan

The S&P 500 dipped down to 7716 before bouncing back, which is a classic setup for bulls who thrive on buying dips. This pattern often begins with what’s called a Failed Breakdown, where institutions accumulate positions after a sharp drop, trapping shorts and driving prices back up. This morning’s move from 7780 to 7716 and back was a textbook example of that. The key level to watch is 7758, which has been a significant resistance point in recent weeks. After hitting that mark, the index retreated but managed to hold above 7716 as the session closed. So, the question now is whether this dip will lead to the next upward leg. Keep an eye on how these Failed Breakdowns play out; they could signal the next move. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Gregory’s Newsletter·1 min

LIONS... GLOBAL SOVEREIGN BONDS ARE HEADING FOR ONE OF THEIR WORST MONTHS IN YEARS! (BE READY FOR THIS THING TO CRACK WIDE OPEN).

The US 10-year yield is up sharply this month, marking its largest monthly surge since 2022. This is significant because it reflects a broader trend in global sovereign bonds, which are on track for one of their worst months in years. The underlying causes seem tied to rising concerns over US foreign policy and its impact on market stability. Investors are feeling the pressure, and it's becoming harder to overlook these signals. Keep an eye on how this plays out, as it could have ripple effects across various asset classes.

Gregory’s Newsletter·2 min

THIS IS A WARNING... ITS GOING GLOBAL. (BE READY FOR THIS THING TO CRACK WIDE OPEN). Mannarino

The U.S. 10-year yield just posted its biggest monthly surge since 2022, signaling a rough month ahead for global sovereign bonds. This isn’t just a blip; it’s part of a larger trend that could have significant implications. The entire yield curve is sending out warning signs, and it feels like we’re on the edge of something major. Mannarino emphasizes that the pressure is building, and it’s not just the U.S. — this is a global issue. Companies and businesses are bracing for shortages and rising costs, which adds to the uncertainty. It’s a critical moment, and the stakes are high. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Gregory’s Newsletter·1 min

Why Is Treasury Buying Its Own Debt? BECAUSE THERE ARE NO BUYERS! Mannarino

The Treasury is stepping in to buy its own debt because there's a noticeable lack of buyers in the market. This situation highlights a broader concern about demand for government bonds, which could signal unease among investors. With the Treasury acting as a buyer, it’s trying to stabilize the market, but it raises questions about the overall health of the economy and investor confidence. This move could impact interest rates and borrowing costs down the line, so it’s worth keeping an eye on how this develops. The market's reaction will be telling, especially for those involved in fixed income or looking at broader economic indicators. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Gregory’s Newsletter·25s

Lions Check This Out! EPIC!!!!! (Shout Out To Austin Quinton).

Hey there! So, it looks like Austin Quinton has done a remake on the MMRI, which is pretty exciting. Greg Mannarino shared this update, and it seems like there's a lot of buzz around it. If you're into the MMRI, definitely check out Austin's take. It’s always interesting to see how different perspectives can bring new insights to the table. I think it’s worth a look, especially if you’re following the trends and shifts in the market. Just a little nudge to keep an eye on what Austin's been working on. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

Elliott Wave 2.0·1 min

The Journey So Far In 2026

Hey, so I just caught up on the latest from 2026, and it’s all about staying grounded. The key themes are calmness, focus, discipline, and patience. It’s a reminder that everything we’ve done so far has been about preparing us for what’s next. Pretty straightforward, right? It’s like they’re saying that no matter how chaotic things get, keeping a level head is crucial. It’s a solid approach, especially in unpredictable markets. It feels like they’re urging everyone to take a step back and really think about their strategies moving forward. Just a heads up, though — this isn’t financial advice. Always do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance. It's important to stay informed but also to trust your instincts. For listeners who want low-fee crypto exposure, our markets partner Kraken supports Bitcoin — link in show notes.

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