What did the declassified documents reveal?

COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA – A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, CIA, APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. This declassified CIA assessment, released through The Black Vault, is notable because it offers a contemporaneous view of how U.S. intelligence evaluated Communist military strength and intentions during the Korean War. The document was approved for public release in June two‑thousand‑four, under a CIA declassification authority. It appears in the public archive as a digitized text file on archive.org, originally filed under the catalog identifier CI00982. The release follows a Freedom of Information Act request, and the agency’s notice indicates that all holders of the original NIE‑80 were informed of minor corrections to Annex D and the accompanying map. Now the document itself. APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE: JUNE two‑thousand‑four. SECURITY INFORMATION (B) (3). NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA, NIE‑80, PUBLISHED APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. The following member organizations of the Intelligence Advisory Committee participated with the Central Intelligence Agency in the preparation of this estimate: the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committee concurred in this estimate on MARCH TWENTY‑SIX, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. NOTICE TO HOLDERS OF NIE‑80, “COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA,” PUBLISHED APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. SUBJECT: CHANGES IN ANNEX D AND MAP. The Intelligence Advisory Committee has noted an apparent inconsistency between data in Annex D to NIE‑80 and data in the reference legend on the map in that estimate, and has approved the changes below: ANNEX D – Column headed “Combat Radius (Nautical Miles)” revised to read “Maximum Combat Radius at Best Operating Altitude (Nautical Miles)” and figures for the MIG‑15 are revised as follows: 460 plus equals 295 and 345. Footnote 2 revised to read: “With two external 78‑gallon tanks.” MAP – Revision in lower right‑hand corner. Revised text reads: RANGES/RADII OF AIRCRAFT OPERATING FROM COMMUNIST BASES. 1. 86‑105 nautical miles – MIG‑15 with two bomb loads and internal fuel only. 2. 106‑110 nautical miles – MIG‑15 with no added armament and internal fuel only. 3. 240‑255 nautical miles – MIG‑15 with two 66‑gallon wing tanks and no added armament. 4. 690 nautical miles – T‑28 jet bomber with a 4,400‑pound bomb load at thirty‑two thousand to forty‑thousand feet, strafing mission with night out and return at best altitude. PROPOSED CHANGES TO ANNEX D AND MAP – REFERENCE LEGEND “Maximum Combat Radius at Best Operating Altitude (Nautical Miles)” and revised figures for the MIG‑15: 60 kilometers, 360 kilometers, footnote revised to read: “With two external 78‑gallon tanks.” Lower‑right‑hand corner legend revised to read: RANGES OF AIRCRAFT OPERATING…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Communist Capabilities And Probable Courses Of Action In Korea – A National

◆ BLUF — The short version

COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA – A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, CIA, APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. S. intelligence evaluated Communist military strength and intentions during the Korean War. The document was approved for public release in June two‑thousand‑four, under a CIA declassification authority.

Date: OCT 6 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA – A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, CIA, APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. This declassified CIA assessment, released through The Black Vault, is notable because it offers a contemporaneous view of how U.S. intelligence evaluated…

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What was CIA Communist Capabilities And Probable Courses Of Action In Korea – A National about?: COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA – A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, CIA, APRIL THREE, NINETEEN‑FIFTY‑THREE. S. intelligence evaluated Communist military strength and intentions during the Korean War. The document was approved for public release in June two‑thousand‑four, under a CIA declassification authority.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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