What did the declassified documents reveal?

Declassified, a Storyflo podcast. This episode features a declassified C-I-A record about morale on Taiwan, specifically a National Intelligence Estimate prepared in nineteen-fifty-five. The full text of this document is available at documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was released by the Central Intelligence Agency in two-thousand-eleven, under the declassification authority of the C-I-A's Historical Review Program. Its release is part of the C-I-A's mission to facilitate public understanding of its past operations through declassified records. The document is a National Intelligence Estimate, C-I-A number one hundred-four point one-fifty-five. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Advisory Committee on April twenty-sixth, nineteen-fifty-five. Concurring were the Special Assistant for Intelligence, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of Staff, G-Two, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence; the Director of Intelligence, U-S-A-F; and the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff. The Atomic Energy Commission Representative to the I-A-C, and the Assistant to the Director, F-B-I, abstained, the subject being outside of their jurisdiction. The estimate aims to analyze the pattern of morale and subversion on Taiwan, and to estimate the extent and intensity of the reactions which may occur in Taiwan, and in certain other countries of free Asia, if the Matsu and Quemoy groups should be lost or evacuated under certain given conditions. On the surface, the general state of Chinese Nationalist morale remains fairly good despite recent events. We have not detected Communist subversive activity of major proportions on Taiwan, and strong counter-measures are being enforced throughout the island. Nevertheless, the Nationalist Government has undergone many frustrations and disappointments during its six years on Taiwan, and adverse psychological forces are almost certainly at work beneath the surface of Nationalist activity. The islands of Quemoy and Matsu have recently assumed such importance in the eyes of the Nationalists that their loss during the current crisis would be a severe blow to morale, irrespective of the circumstances or conditions under which the loss occurred. The effect would probably be considerably greater if the islands fell to Communist forces, especially if U.S. forces were involved, than if they were evacuated without armed conflict. In any event, however, we believe that the blow would not be so great as to cause the Nationalists to fold up. We believe that they would continue their resistance to Communist pressures, at least for a time. The behavior of the Nationalists would depend largely on specific U.S. actions with respect to Taiwan, and on U.S. reactions to subsequent Communist moves. Among the other Asian governments giving consideration, Japan, the Philippines, the R-O-K, Thailand, South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, evacuation…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

Case File · ARCHIVE-391Declassified

Filed SEP 26 · 2026Runtime 1 min

CIA Declassified, A Storyflo Podcast.

U.S. public record · FOIAUpdated September 26, 2026

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◆ BLUF — The short version

Declassified, a Storyflo podcast. This episode features a declassified C-I-A record about morale on Taiwan, specifically a National Intelligence Estimate prepared in nineteen-fifty-five. com. This document was released by the Central Intelligence Agency in two-thousand-eleven, under the declassification authority of the C-I-A's Historical Review Program.

Date: SEP 26 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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Episode notes

Declassified, a Storyflo podcast. This episode features a declassified C-I-A record about morale on Taiwan, specifically a National Intelligence Estimate prepared in nineteen-fifty-five. The full text of this document is available at documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was released by the…

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Questions about this case

What was CIA Declassified, A Storyflo Podcast. about?: Declassified, a Storyflo podcast. This episode features a declassified C-I-A record about morale on Taiwan, specifically a National Intelligence Estimate prepared in nineteen-fifty-five. com. This document was released by the Central Intelligence Agency in two-thousand-eleven, under the declassification authority of the C-I-A's Historical Review Program.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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