What did the declassified documents reveal?

Welcome to Declassified. Today we examine a declassified intelligence record from the National Security Agency, dating from April fourth, nineteen-sixty-one, titled "The Economic Situation in Communist China." This document is notable for its blunt assessment of Chinese economic difficulties during the Great Leap Forward, and its implications for U.S. policy. You can find this record at documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was approved for release in June two-thousand-four, following a request under the Freedom of Information Act. It is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, or S-N-I-E, indicating it was a high-level assessment prepared for the President and the National Security Council. The document opens with "The Problem," stating: "To assess current Chinese Communist economic difficulties, with special reference to the food situation, and to estimate their economic and political consequences: (a) over the next few years, and (b) in the event nineteen-sixty-one should prove a poor crop year." Under "Conclusions," the document states: "One. The Chinese Communist regime is now facing the most serious economic difficulties it has confronted since it consolidated its power over mainland China. As a result of economic mismanagement, and, especially, of two years of unfavorable weather, food production in nineteen-sixty was little if any larger than in nineteen-fifty-seven—at which time there were about fifty million fewer Chinese to feed. Widespread famine does not appear to be at hand, but in some provinces many people are now on a bare subsistence diet and the bitterest suffering lies immediately ahead in the period before the June harvests. The dislocations caused by the 'Leap Forward' and the removal of Soviet technicians have disrupted China’s industrialization program. These difficulties have sharply reduced the rate of economic growth during nineteen-sixty and have created a serious balance of payments problem. Public morale, especially in rural areas, is almost certainly at its lowest point since the Communists assumed power, and there have been some instances of open dissidence." It continues: "Two. The Chinese Communist regime has responded by giving agriculture a higher priority, dropping the 'Leap Forward' approach in industry, and relaxing somewhat the economic demands on the people. Perhaps the best indicator of the severity of the food shortage has been Peiping’s action in scheduling the importation of nearly three million tons of foodgrains during nineteen-sixty-one, at a cost of about two-hundred million dollars of Communist China’s limited foreign currency holdings." "Three. While normal crop weather in nineteen-sixty-one would significantly improve farm output over the levels of nineteen-fifty-nine and nineteen-sixty, at least two years of average or better harvests will be required to overcome the crisis and permit a restoration of the diet to tolerable levels, some rebuilding of domestic stocks, and the resumption…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

NSA The Economic Situation In Communist China.

◆ BLUF — The short version

Welcome to Declassified. S. policy. com. This document was approved for release in June two-thousand-four, following a request under the Freedom of Information Act. It is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, or S-N-I-E, indicating it was a high-level assessment prepared for the President and the National Security Council.

Date: SEP 16 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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Welcome to Declassified. Today we examine a declassified intelligence record from the National Security Agency, dating from April fourth, nineteen-sixty-one, titled "The Economic Situation in Communist China." This document is notable for its blunt assessment of Chinese economic difficulties during…

View the primary source document

Questions about this case

What was NSA The Economic Situation In Communist China. about?: Welcome to Declassified. S. policy. com. This document was approved for release in June two-thousand-four, following a request under the Freedom of Information Act. It is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, or S-N-I-E, indicating it was a high-level assessment prepared for the President and the National Security Council.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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NSA The Economic Situation In Communist China.

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