What did the declassified documents reveal?

From the Central Intelligence Agency, a June twenty-first, nineteen-sixty-two memorandum concerning the potential effects of a United States refusal to permit a Chinese Nationalist attack on the mainland. This declassified record offers a window into high-level Cold War strategic calculations, available at theblackvault.com. This document was declassified and released by the Central Intelligence Agency, with a release date of September twenty-eighth, two-thousand-five, under the authority of the Automatic Declassification Program. It represents a routine release of historical intelligence records. MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR SUBJECT: Effect on the Chinese Nationalists of a US Refusal to Permit an Attack on the Chinese Mainland. Assumed: (a) An approach to the Chinese Communists, through the British, proposing an agreement to the effect that they refrain from attacking the offshore islands and we prevent the Chinese Nationalists from attacking the mainland. (b) That this approach becomes known to the Chinese Nationalist Government. Problem: What is the effect on the Chinese Nationalist Government. One. The morale of the Chinese Government would be gravely damaged by this move, which would seem to them to forbid a return to the mainland at a time of excellent opportunity, and thus freeze the status quo indefinitely. There would be a violent emotional reaction of bitterness and anti-Americanism among the governing Chinese, accompanied by a substantial deterioration of relationships with the US. Cooperation in political, military, and intelligence areas would be severely reduced. The effect would be worst of all if Chiang and his associates previously believed that the US would help them in some form of attack on the mainland, and then received news of the assumed US move from non-US sources. In such an event damage to morale would be compounded by severe disillusion with the US. Two. We think that in this situation there is some chance that they would decide to attack the mainland with their own resources. This would be a move, made in the hope that in the last analysis, the US would be unable to allow the Nationalist forces to suffer a serious defeat, and so would come to their assistance. Three. The consequences for the political regime on Taiwan are not foreseeable. It is possible that a political convulsion would ensue which would end in a complete transformation of the leadership. It is extremely unlikely that the Nationalist leaders, or any substantial element of their followers, would accommodate to the Communists, especially in the present dire condition of Communist China. But principal leaders might withdraw from the administration and leave the island if they were able. It would be very difficult to reconstitute an administration on Taiwan which would in effect renounce Nationalist claims for return to the mainland in return for US protection on the island. To create such an administration would certainly require a heavy involvement of…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

From The Central Intelligence Agency, A June Twenty First, Nineteen Sixty Two

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From the Central Intelligence Agency, a June twenty-first, nineteen-sixty-two memorandum concerning the potential effects of a United States refusal to permit a Chinese Nationalist attack on the mainland. com. This document was declassified and released by the Central Intelligence Agency, with a release date of September twenty-eighth, two-thousand-five, under the authority of the Automatic Declassification Program.

Date: SEP 13 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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From the Central Intelligence Agency, a June twenty-first, nineteen-sixty-two memorandum concerning the potential effects of a United States refusal to permit a Chinese Nationalist attack on the mainland. This declassified record offers a window into high-level Cold War strategic calculations…

View the primary source document

Questions about this case

What was From The Central Intelligence Agency, A June Twenty First, Nineteen Sixty Two about?: From the Central Intelligence Agency, a June twenty-first, nineteen-sixty-two memorandum concerning the potential effects of a United States refusal to permit a Chinese Nationalist attack on the mainland. com. This document was declassified and released by the Central Intelligence Agency, with a release date of September twenty-eighth, two-thousand-five, under the authority of the Automatic Declassification Program.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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