What did the declassified documents reveal?

This Declassified briefing focuses on a declassified Central Intelligence Agency airgram from March thirteenth, nineteen-sixty-three, titled "Counterattack in 1963?" It details U.S. intelligence assessments of Chinese Nationalist plans for a mainland invasion. This document is available at vault.fbi.gov and documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was released under the Freedom of Information Act as part of the U.S. Intelligence on China CI01555 collection. It was declassified on November thirtieth, nineteen-ninety-nine, by the National Archives and Records Administration, specifically by the Assassination Records Review Board, or A-A-R-B, under exemption B-one. The airgram, sent from Taipei, states: "President Chiang Kai-shek is reported by one U.S. official to have told him on February eighth that a revolt against the Chinese Communist regime would occur during nineteen-sixty-three and that this would provide the G-R-C with its long-awaited opportunity to counterattack the mainland. So far as the Embassy is aware, this is the first time Chiang has committed himself publicly to acting within a specified period of time. The report is also interesting for Chiang's statement, expressed more precisely than previous public statements on this subject, that he would send in the G-R-C armed forces only after there had been an internal revolt in Communist China. So Chiang's declaration that invasion should follow a revolt appears contrary to the 'detonator' theory frequently advanced by the Taiwan press that a G-R-C invasion is necessary to make a revolt possible. In private conversations, Chiang himself has also advanced the view that only a fairly sizeable incursion by G-R-C forces, either by air or sea, would create the necessary conditions for a popular revolt against the Peiping regime, including large-scale defections from the Chinese Communist armed forces. There is probably, however, no real contradiction in Chiang's mind between the two concepts. He has already embarked on a program of clandestine and paramilitary operations against the mainland which he hopes will set in motion active resistance to the Communists. Probably only when this resistance reached a certain degree of intensity would he commit regular forces to an invasion. Thus, he would not invade until an actual revolt of some kind had taken place, but he probably believes, at the same time, that a really large-scale resistance movement—particularly substantial defections from the Chinese Communist forces—could not occur until a sizeable landing of G-R-C regular forces had been carried out. Evidence available to the Embassy of G-R-C plans and preparations clearly points to the continuation this spring of acts of sabotage and dispatching of guerrilla teams such as took place late last year, possibly also including larger scale paramilitary actions, such as commando raids along the Fukien or Kwangtung coasts. There is evidence, too, that the G-R-C is preparing for the amphibious…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Counterattack In 1963?

◆ BLUF — The short version

S. intelligence assessments of Chinese Nationalist plans for a mainland invasion. com. S. Intelligence on China CI01555 collection. It was declassified on November thirtieth, nineteen-ninety-nine, by the National Archives and Records Administration, specifically by the Assassination Records Review Board, or A-A-R-B, under exemption B-one.

Date: SEP 9 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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This Declassified briefing focuses on a declassified Central Intelligence Agency airgram from March thirteenth, nineteen-sixty-three, titled "Counterattack in 1963?" It details U.S. intelligence assessments of Chinese Nationalist plans for a mainland invasion. This document is available at…

View the primary source document

Questions about this case

What was CIA Counterattack In 1963? about?: S. intelligence assessments of Chinese Nationalist plans for a mainland invasion. com. S. Intelligence on China CI01555 collection. It was declassified on November thirtieth, nineteen-ninety-nine, by the National Archives and Records Administration, specifically by the Assassination Records Review Board, or A-A-R-B, under exemption B-one.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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