What did the declassified documents reveal?

Declassified. Today, we present a declassified National Intelligence Estimate from the Central Intelligence Agency, dated January twenty-eighth, nineteen-sixty-four. This document, number NIE thirteen-sixty-four, assesses the economic prospects for Communist China, offering a rare glimpse into United States intelligence perceptions during the Cold War. You can find this record at documents2.theblackvault.com. This document was approved for release in June two-thousand-four. It was declassified under exemption B three of the Freedom of Information Act by an undisclosed declassification authority. It is part of a collection of United States intelligence records on China. The document begins: SECRET. NIE thirteen-sixty-four. Twenty-eight January nineteen-sixty-four. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER thirteen-sixty-four. Economic Prospects for Communist China. Submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence. Concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board. As indicated overleaf. Twenty-eight January nineteen-sixty-four. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER thirteen-sixty-four. Economic Prospects for Communist China. The problem: To assess the problems and performance of Communist China's economy, and its prospects over the next few years. Note: Firm information on Communist China remains so sparse that precise economic analysis is not possible and even broad judgments are subject to error. The Estimate should be read in the light of this general caution. Annex A gives a brief description of our information on the Chinese Communist economy. Conclusions. A. The Chinese economy has recovered somewhat from its nineteen-sixty to nineteen-sixty-one low, but its prospects are considerably worse than in nineteen-fifty-seven. Any Chinese government would face monumental economic problems resulting from the huge and growing population, inadequate arable land, and the low level of technology. The problems of the Chinese Communists are compounded by their own past errors, their ideological compulsions, the break with the Soviet Union, and extreme nationalism. (Paragraphs one to ten). B. Grain output in nineteen-sixty-three was no greater than in nineteen-fifty-seven, when there were some seventy-five million fewer people to feed. Peiping's mismanagement and the post-nineteen-sixty decline of Soviet support have grievously hurt the industrial sector; total output in nineteen-sixty-three remains far below the nineteen-fifty-nine peak. A few priority industries, such as those supporting agriculture and the petroleum industry, are operating at close to capacity, but many suffer from unbalanced development, technological deficiencies, and shortages of parts and raw materials. Foreign trade is at the lowest point since nineteen-fifty-four. That with the Soviet Union has declined more than sixty percent since nineteen-fifty-nine, and China has become a substantial importer of food from the Free World. (Paragraphs eleven to twenty-six). C. We believe that…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Today, We Present A Declassified National Intelligence Estimate

◆ BLUF — The short version

Declassified. Today, we present a declassified National Intelligence Estimate from the Central Intelligence Agency, dated January twenty-eighth, nineteen-sixty-four. This document, number NIE thirteen-sixty-four, assesses the economic prospects for Communist China, offering a rare glimpse into United States intelligence perceptions during the Cold War.

Date: SEP 6 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was CIA Today, We Present A Declassified National Intelligence Estimate about?: Declassified. Today, we present a declassified National Intelligence Estimate from the Central Intelligence Agency, dated January twenty-eighth, nineteen-sixty-four. This document, number NIE thirteen-sixty-four, assesses the economic prospects for Communist China, offering a rare glimpse into United States intelligence perceptions during the Cold War.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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