What did the declassified documents reveal?

This is Declassified, from storyflo.com. Today, we're examining a declassified C-I-A record from nineteen-sixty-four: a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the chances of an imminent Communist Chinese nuclear explosion. This document is available at vault.fbi.gov. This record, Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 13-4-64, was declassified on May twenty-first, two thousand four, under the authority of the United States Intelligence Board. It was released as part of the C-I-A's historical review program. The document is titled "The Chances of an Imminent Communist Chinese Nuclear Explosion." "The Problem: To assess the likelihood that the advanced stage of construction at a probable nuclear test site in Western China indicates that the Chinese Communists will detonate their first nuclear device in the next few months. Conclusion: On the basis of new overhead photography, we are now convinced that the previously suspect facility at Lop Nor in Western China is a nuclear test site which could be ready for use in about two months. On the other hand, the weight of available evidence indicates that the Chinese will not have sufficient fissionable material for a nuclear test until sometime after the end of nineteen-sixty-four. Clearly the possibility of such a detonation before the end of this year cannot be ruled out — the test may occur during this period. On balance, however, we believe that it will not occur until sometime after the end of nineteen-sixty-four." The document details the evidence: "Overhead photography of August sixth through ninth shows that the previously suspect facility near Lop Nor in Sinkiang is almost certainly a nuclear testing site. Developments at the facility include a ground scar forming about sixty percent of a circle nineteen thousand six hundred feet in diameter around a three hundred twenty-five foot tower, first seen in April nineteen-sixty-four photography, and work on bunkers near the tower and instrumentation sites at appropriate locations. In its current appearance and apparent rate of construction, it indicates that the site could be ready for a test in two months or so. The characteristics of the site suggest that it is being prepared for both diagnostic and weapon effect experiments." The estimate continues: "Analysts of all available evidence on fissionable material production in China indicates, though it does not prove, that the Chinese will not have sufficient material for a test of a nuclear device in the next few months. The only Chinese production reactor identified to date is the small, air-cooled reactor at Pao-t'ou. Construction was continuing throughout the site, including some fairly substantial work around the building which houses the reactor. Photography of March nineteen-sixty-four indicated that major construction at the site — including service roads and additional security provisions — had apparently been completed. Thus we believe the reactor went into operation possibly in the…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Declassified, From Storyflo.com

◆ BLUF — The short version

com. Today, we're examining a declassified C-I-A record from nineteen-sixty-four: a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the chances of an imminent Communist Chinese nuclear explosion. gov. This record, Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 13-4-64, was declassified on May twenty-first, two thousand four, under the authority of the United States Intelligence Board.

Date: SEP 2 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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This is Declassified, from storyflo.com. Today, we're examining a declassified C-I-A record from nineteen-sixty-four: a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the chances of an imminent Communist Chinese nuclear explosion. This document is available at vault.fbi.gov. This record, Special…

View the primary source document

Questions about this case

What was CIA Declassified, From Storyflo.com about?: com. Today, we're examining a declassified C-I-A record from nineteen-sixty-four: a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the chances of an imminent Communist Chinese nuclear explosion. gov. This record, Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 13-4-64, was declassified on May twenty-first, two thousand four, under the authority of the United States Intelligence Board.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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