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Chinese medium‑range ballistic missile deployment – State Department, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Note 323, May third, nineteen sixty‑eight. This internal assessment is notable because it records the first U.S. intelligence estimate that the People’s Republic of China’s MRBM program had slipped behind its original schedule, and it links the delay to the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution. The note was declassified and made publicly available through The Black Vault archive. The release appears in the online collection of U.S. intelligence documents, with the full text hosted at archive dot org under the identifier CI01865. No specific FOIA case number is cited; the declassification authority is the originating bureau, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Now, the document itself. To: The Secretary Through: Director of Intelligence and Research From: INR – Thomas L. Hughes, M4 Subject: Chinese MRBM Deployment Delayed According to an estimate made in late nineteen sixty‑six, the Chinese Communists were expected to be able to deploy a few medium‑range ballistic missiles with fission warheads in nineteen sixty‑seven. Thus far, however, we have had no reliable evidence that any such deployment has taken place. There is some possibility that the MRBM program may have fallen behind schedule—perhaps as a result of disruption caused by the Cultural Revolution or because of technical problems and/or changes in plans. A third explanation is that the estimate itself was inaccurate, although it seemed consonant with the rapid pace of the weapons program in nineteen sixty‑six and much of nineteen sixty‑seven. In any case, any delay in MRBM emplacement is not expected to be of long duration, and the Chinese may well begin deployment this year. Intentions to protect the program from the Cultural Revolution. Early in the Cultural Revolution, the regime indicated its intention to isolate weapons development from undue Red Guard interference. The decision of the Central Committee, issued following the August nineteen sixty‑six plenum dealing with the general lines of the Cultural Revolution, declared that “those scientists and technical personnel who have made contributions should be protected.” The strides that the program made during nineteen sixty‑six and nineteen sixty‑seven seemed to indicate that it was being insulated to some extent from the disruptions of the Cultural Revolution. This report was produced by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Aside from normal substantive exchange with other agencies at the working level, secret no foreign dissemination has not been coordinated elsewhere. In October nineteen sixty‑six, the Chinese exploded what was probably a missile‑borne low‑yield fission device and in December of the same year carried out another test. In June nineteen sixty‑seven, China detonated a thermonuclear device which produced a yield of a few megatons. With regard to missiles, over‑the‑horizon radar gave indications during…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Chinese Medium‑range Ballistic Missile Deployment – State Department, Bureau Of

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Chinese medium‑range ballistic missile deployment – State Department, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Note 323, May third, nineteen sixty‑eight. S. intelligence estimate that the People’s Republic of China’s MRBM program had slipped behind its original schedule, and it links the delay to the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution.

Date: AUG 8 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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Chinese medium‑range ballistic missile deployment – State Department, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Note 323, May third, nineteen sixty‑eight. This internal assessment is notable because it records the first U.S. intelligence estimate that the People’s Republic of China’s MRBM program had…

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What was CIA Chinese Medium‑range Ballistic Missile Deployment – State Department, Bureau Of about?: Chinese medium‑range ballistic missile deployment – State Department, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Note 323, May third, nineteen sixty‑eight. S. intelligence estimate that the People’s Republic of China’s MRBM program had slipped behind its original schedule, and it links the delay to the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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CIA Chinese Medium‑range Ballistic Missile Deployment – State Department, Bureau Of

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