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This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency National Intelligence Estimate on the short‑term outlook in Communist China, dated May twenty‑third, nineteen‑sixty‑eight. The assessment is notable for its analysis of the Cultural Revolution and its projected impact on Chinese political stability and economic performance. The document was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request. It was declassified by the Director of Central Intelligence and subsequently posted on The Black Vault website. The release date on the archive is listed as the year two thousand four. APPROVED FOR RELEASE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE – NUMBER 13‑9‑4 The Short‑Term Outlook in Communist China Submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: the Central Intelligence Agency; the Department of State; the Department of Defense; the National Security Agency; the Department of the Army; the Department of the Air Force; the Department of the Navy; the Federal Bureau of Investigation; the Department of the Treasury; the Office of the Director of Central Intelligence; and the Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of Soviet and East Asian Affairs. CONCLUSIONS A. The internal situation inside Communist China remains highly fluid. Disorder, confusion, and unrest continue, although the peak of turmoil appears to have receded from the high water mark of the previous summer. Nevertheless, the ranks of those alienated by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution have grown; the costs in political control, social discipline, and economic progress have far outweighed the gains. Although Mao has been successful in breaking high‑level opposition within the old party apparatus, in broader terms his Cultural Revolution has been a failure, and we believe it will be gradually phased out. B. Mao still appears to be the central figure and source of basic policy. The regime is officially committed to the reconstruction of a new framework for industry and agriculture. On balance, we believe the trend will be toward regaining some stability, in part because of the increased influence of moderate elements in Peking. Yet there will be sharp twists and turns, occasional eruptions, and disorder at various levels, reflecting strong differences among factions and leaders over policies and tactics. C. The military will retain Peking’s most reliable instrument over the coming year. As the only cohesive force with a nationwide system of command and control, the People’s Liberation Army will have to serve a variety of administrative and control functions. The rebuilding effort—political, economic, and social

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

Case File · ARCHIVE-659Declassified

Filed AUG 8 · 2026Runtime 3 min

Central Intelligence Agency National Intelligence Estimate On The Short‑term

U.S. public record · FOIAUpdated August 8, 2026

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This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency National Intelligence Estimate on the short‑term outlook in Communist China, dated May twenty‑third, nineteen‑sixty‑eight. The assessment is notable for its analysis of the Cultural Revolution and its projected impact on Chinese political stability and economic performance.

Date: AUG 8 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was Central Intelligence Agency National Intelligence Estimate On The Short‑term about?: This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency National Intelligence Estimate on the short‑term outlook in Communist China, dated May twenty‑third, nineteen‑sixty‑eight. The assessment is notable for its analysis of the Cultural Revolution and its projected impact on Chinese political stability and economic performance.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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