What did the declassified documents reveal?

The record you are hearing is a Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Political Research, Progress Report No. 18, dated twelve October nineteen seventy‑six, titled “The Likelihood of Sino‑Soviet Hostilities.” It appears in the public archive of declassified intelligence on China and was released through the Black Vault website. The document was declassified and approved for public release on five January two thousand five under a standard declassification authority. The release came as part of a broader FOIA response, and the full text is available from the Black Vault archive. The report opens with a brief description of the project: “This project consists of two quantitative approaches to Sino‑Soviet relations. A team of analysts, drawn from various components of the CIA and concerned with different aspects of Chinese and Soviet affairs, examines on a continuing basis evidence on the possibility of one or another level of Sino‑Soviet hostilities. The analysts’ latest numerical assessments of the likelihood of such hostilities, calculated according to the Bayesian formula of probabilities, are presented in the bar graph on page 2. Below this, a second graph shows the movement of the group’s assessments over the past few months. The second part of this project is a chart of overall Sino‑Soviet tensions, based upon subjective evaluations by the participants. Progress reports will be published on a periodic basis by the Office of Political Research.” The principal trends are summarized as follows: “Since Mao’s death on nine September, there has been no strong evidence of preparations for imminent hostilities by either side. The probabilities of hostilities within the next six months remain quite low. The current level of tension has fallen slightly, despite the uncertain succession in China; this is mainly due to an apparent Soviet interest in pursuing the possibility of improved relations. In addition to the regular scenarios of hostilities reported in this project, various scenarios of improved Sino‑Soviet relations are being assessed on an experimental basis. Initial results, based on the events of the past month, indicate a slight Soviet willingness to improve relations and a clear Chinese aversion to any type of improvement, especially in party‑to‑party relations. Future issues of this publication will attempt to follow the probability of improved relations also.” The report then lists items of evidence considered in the revision of six October: “1. The message of condolence sent by the CPSU to the Chinese on the occasion of Mao’s death was rejected. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying that the message was unacceptable because the Soviet and Chinese Parties do not have formal relations. Messages from Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany were also rejected. A government message sent by Hungary was accepted. Later, the messages sent by the French and Italian Communist Parties were also…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA The Likelihood Of Sino‑soviet Hostilities.

◆ BLUF — The short version

The record you are hearing is a Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Political Research, Progress Report No. ” It appears in the public archive of declassified intelligence on China and was released through the Black Vault website. The document was declassified and approved for public release on five January two thousand five under a standard declassification authority.

Date: AUG 5 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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Episode notes

The record you are hearing is a Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Political Research, Progress Report No. 18, dated twelve October nineteen seventy‑six, titled “The Likelihood of Sino‑Soviet Hostilities.” It appears in the public archive of declassified intelligence on China and was released…

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Questions about this case

What was CIA The Likelihood Of Sino‑soviet Hostilities. about?: The record you are hearing is a Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Political Research, Progress Report No. ” It appears in the public archive of declassified intelligence on China and was released through the Black Vault website. The document was declassified and approved for public release on five January two thousand five under a standard declassification authority.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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