What did the declassified documents reveal?

A declassified Central Intelligence Agency intelligence report on China’s strategic weapons program, dated January thirteenth, nineteen seventy‑eight, offers a rare glimpse into U.S. assessments of Beijing’s nuclear and missile capabilities during the late nineteen seventies. The document is notable for its detailed enumeration of bomber aircraft, ballistic missiles, submarine programs, nuclear testing, and early‑warning radar development. The report was declassified and released on June twenty‑eighth, two thousand five, under the CIA’s Records Disclosure Program. It was made publicly available through The Black Vault archive, which hosts the full text of the declassified material. The document begins with an overview of China’s limited but credible nuclear strike capability. It notes that China’s ninety‑kilometer‑range Tu‑sixteen jet bombers could deliver nuclear bombs against missile deployment and targets near China’s borders, and that Peking’s ballistic missile launchers, with ranges of seventy kilometers, could reach targets throughout most of Asia. The report then enumerates the missile inventory: approximately thirty CSS‑one medium‑range ballistic missiles with a six‑hundred nautical‑mile range, and about forty CSS‑two intermediate‑range ballistic missiles with a one‑thousand‑five‑hundred nautical‑mile range, all deployed at surface launch sites. It adds that China possesses two CSS‑three intercontinental ballistic missiles with a three‑thousand‑six‑hundred nautical‑mile range, housed in silos in central China, capable of reaching Moscow and the western Soviet Union. The assessment observes that no evidence of new silo construction for the CSS‑three ICBM has been found, but that Chinese planners intend to deploy this missile at “soft” sites as well. The report continues, stating that over the past two years there has been little expansion of the missile force, with only a few surface launch sites added. Although the number of missiles deployed is small compared to United States and Soviet forces, the concealment and deployment techniques employed by the Chinese make a complete assessment of their capability difficult. The document further indicates that China is developing at least two additional strategic missiles: an intercontinental ballistic missile and a submarine‑launched ballistic missile that would enable delivery of nuclear warheads worldwide, including the continental United States. Regarding the intercontinental ballistic missile under development, the report describes the CSS‑four ICBM as a large, liquid‑propellant missile, similar to the United States Titan II, with an estimated range of seven‑thousand nautical miles. It notes that the Chinese have also used this booster as a space launch vehicle, and that early test flights as an ICBM suffered failures, but recent successes as a space booster and a surface‑pad flight test suggest that major technical problems have been solved. The document estimates that the silos and…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA A Declassified Central Intelligence Agency Intelligence Report On China’s

◆ BLUF — The short version

S. assessments of Beijing’s nuclear and missile capabilities during the late nineteen seventies. The document is notable for its detailed enumeration of bomber aircraft, ballistic missiles, submarine programs, nuclear testing, and early‑warning radar development. The report was declassified and released on June twenty‑eighth, two thousand five, under the CIA’s Records Disclosure Program.

Date: AUG 4 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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A declassified Central Intelligence Agency intelligence report on China’s strategic weapons program, dated January thirteenth, nineteen seventy‑eight, offers a rare glimpse into U.S. assessments of Beijing’s nuclear and missile capabilities during the late nineteen seventies. The document is…

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Questions about this case

What was CIA A Declassified Central Intelligence Agency Intelligence Report On China’s about?: S. assessments of Beijing’s nuclear and missile capabilities during the late nineteen seventies. The document is notable for its detailed enumeration of bomber aircraft, ballistic missiles, submarine programs, nuclear testing, and early‑warning radar development. The report was declassified and released on June twenty‑eighth, two thousand five, under the CIA’s Records Disclosure Program.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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CIA A Declassified Central Intelligence Agency Intelligence Report On China’s

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