What did the declassified documents reveal?

Situations of Concern – a memorandum from the Central Intelligence Agency’s National Foreign Assessment Center, dated twenty‑ninth of December, nineteen seventy‑eight. This document is notable because it outlines three developing geopolitical situations that the Director of Central Intelligence was asked to monitor in early 1979, and it was declassified and made publicly available through the Black Vault archive. The memorandum was released to the public as part of a Freedom of Information Act request. The declassification authority was the Central Intelligence Agency, and the document was approved for release on the sixth of January, two thousand and five. The full text is hosted at archive.org under the Black Vault collection. The Director of Central Intelligence Washington, D.C. National Intelligence Officers December twenty‑ninth, nineteen seventy‑eight Memorandum for: Director of Central Intelligence Via: Acting Director, National Foreign Assessment Center From: Richard Lehman, National Intelligence Officer for Warning Subject: Situations of Concern 1. Action Requested: None; this memorandum is to alert you to three developing situations that could require your attention in the next few days. 2. Background: Vietnam – China – USSR. We are beginning to see the first indications of a substantial Chinese infantry movement in the south. If we are able to confirm that these movements are indeed taking place and are toward the Vietnamese border, there is at least some possibility that the Soviets will begin military posturing against China. We will want to consider whether to issue an alert memorandum once we know that the Chinese troop movements have taken place. I have asked troops to notify me and may subsequently be in touch with you. 3. Iran. The Administration’s concentration on the Shah’s dilemma and what appears yet again to be the final act in this drama should not blind us to the complex economic consequences of a change of regimes in Iran. OER is engaged in a joint effort with State, Energy, and Treasury at the working level to assess some of these consequences. I am not sure what opportunity the President and his advisers have had to think about these things. I have therefore asked OER to do PDB pieces, probably annexes, over the next few days on the developing trends as balance of payments, health of the dollar, and executive‑level considerations. 4. Korea. PACOM is somewhat concerned over the activation of a few indicators of North Korean military activity. PACOM would normally view this as we do – no real pattern and negative returns on all the most important indicators, thus cause for heightened interest but no great concern. PACOM feels slightly more vulnerable, however, because one of its carrier task forces has been diverted south as a contingency preparation against the Iranian situation. We will be monitoring this closely over the weekend and will alert you if necessary. Richard Lehman This is what the public record looks like…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Situations Of Concern – A Memorandum From The Central Intelligence Agency’s

◆ BLUF — The short version

Situations of Concern – a memorandum from the Central Intelligence Agency’s National Foreign Assessment Center, dated twenty‑ninth of December, nineteen seventy‑eight. This document is notable because it outlines three developing geopolitical situations that the Director of Central Intelligence was asked to monitor in early 1979, and it was declassified and made publicly available through the Black Vault archive.

Date: AUG 4 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was CIA Situations Of Concern – A Memorandum From The Central Intelligence Agency’s about?: Situations of Concern – a memorandum from the Central Intelligence Agency’s National Foreign Assessment Center, dated twenty‑ninth of December, nineteen seventy‑eight. This document is notable because it outlines three developing geopolitical situations that the Director of Central Intelligence was asked to monitor in early 1979, and it was declassified and made publicly available through the Black Vault archive.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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