What did the declassified documents reveal?

The document we are hearing today is a Central Intelligence Agency memorandum dated twenty‑second June, nineteen‑seventy‑nine. It is an internal assessment titled “OPA Paper on Indochina and the Sino‑Soviet Rivalry,” addressed to the Director of the National Foreign Assessment Center. The memo is notable because it records senior intelligence officers’ critique of a policy paper, highlighting the need for broader analysis of Chinese, Soviet and ASEAN calculations during the post‑Vietnam War period. The source is archived at the Black Vault, accessible through the URL archive.org/download/us‑china‑intel‑CI02162/CI02162djvu.txt. This memorandum was released to the public on second January, two thousand eight, under the CIA’s automatic declassification authority. The release was part of the agency’s routine Freedom of Information Act disclosures, identified in the archive as approved for release on that date. No additional FOIA case number is cited in the public record. The memorandum reads as follows. Approved for Release 2008/01/02. CIA‑RDP83B00100R000100080023‑3. The Director of Central Intelligence, Washington, D. C., twenty‑fifth zero five. National Intelligence Officers Memorandum For: Director, National Foreign Assessment Center Via: Director of Political Analysis From: John H. Holdridge, National Intelligence Officer for China; Arnold L. Horelick, National Intelligence Officer for USSR‑EE Subject: OPA Paper on Indochina and the Sino‑Soviet Rivalry Reference: We agree with the major conclusion of this paper—that the Vietnamese are stubborn and persevering and are in a position of considerable strength—but we do not think this exhausts the points that a balanced paper might make. As it now stands, the paper is written from a narrowly conceived Vietnamese perspective. The complexities of Chinese, Soviet and ASEAN calculations and concerns are all given relatively little attention. We made orally a series of specific suggestions when we first had a chance to examine the paper. At this stage we merely reiterate the broader issues which concern us. Although presented from a Vietnamese point of view, the paper develops Hanoi’s position in what seems to us to be an excessively narrow framework. There is little discussion of economic factors; if OPA/EA believes that constraints in this area are of relatively little importance we believe it should argue the case more fully. In general we think that Vietnamese motives and calculations should be looked at in a broader context and in greater detail. Problems of this order are compounded when parties other than Vietnam are considered. The paper, for example, is badly in need of a discussion of Soviet views on such subjects as the acceptable level of risk to run for Vietnam in the event of another Chinese attack, the acceptability of the economic burden involved in supporting Vietnam, the relative weight of the Soviet gains registered in Vietnam in comparison with whatever setbacks may have been suffered…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Opa Paper On Indochina And The Sino‑soviet Rivalry

◆ BLUF — The short version

The document we are hearing today is a Central Intelligence Agency memorandum dated twenty‑second June, nineteen‑seventy‑nine. It is an internal assessment titled “OPA Paper on Indochina and the Sino‑Soviet Rivalry,” addressed to the Director of the National Foreign Assessment Center.

Date: AUG 3 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was CIA Opa Paper On Indochina And The Sino‑soviet Rivalry about?: The document we are hearing today is a Central Intelligence Agency memorandum dated twenty‑second June, nineteen‑seventy‑nine. It is an internal assessment titled “OPA Paper on Indochina and the Sino‑Soviet Rivalry,” addressed to the Director of the National Foreign Assessment Center.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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CIA Opa Paper On Indochina And The Sino‑soviet Rivalry

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