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Document: East Asia Warning Assessment, July 28, 1981, Memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence. Released: The Black Vault, document CI02202, declassified in 2006. The following is a memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence, dated July 28, 1981, providing an East Asia Warning Assessment. Memorandum for: Director of Central Intelligence, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Through: National Intelligence Officer for Warning Subject: East Asia Warning Assessment The following items were discussed by the Community Representatives at the 22 July warning meeting. 25X1 Sino-US Relations Analysts generally agreed that the Chinese viewed Secretary Haig's trip as a success. Nonetheless, the PRC continues to demonstrate great sensitivity on the issue of Taiwan. Its public and private commentary expressing concern about possible developments in the US attitude toward Taiwan have in fact intensified since the Haig visit. Chinese public statements on this issue have been particularly vociferous, reflecting Chinese irritation about the conflicting signals on the Taiwan issue they see emanating from Washington. China's sensitivity may also indicate that this subject has some domestic political implications for Teng's stature and policies. [C four lines redacted under exemption B1] 3. Analysts differed as to the intensity of Chinese disquiet on the Taiwan issue but agreed that the Chinese will remain particularly sensitive to any signs of Washington suggesting moves to improve relations on any level with Taiwan, particularly on the issue of arms sales. Beijing can be expected to state its case forcefully in private and in public. The scheduled visit of the Vice Chief of Staff and other senior PRC officials to the US over the next several months will serve as an indicator of how the Chinese see the overall state of relations. 25X11 Military Situation in Kampuchea -- the Status of the DK 4. DK forces appear to be much more active, operating on a broader geographic scale and able to challenge Vietnamese forces more effectively than six months or a year ago. DK forces are operating in relatively small units but are increasingly able to interdict transportation, and to harass Vietnamese outposts and troop movements. Two factors appear most important in underwriting these more extensive operations: a stable logistics base on the Thai/Kampuchean border area and access to and effective utilization of heavier weapons. [C four lines redacted under exemption B1] 5. The DK's ability to make gains has occurred in part as a result of an apparent drawing back by the Vietnamese into an essentially defensive posture. There was general agreement that the Vietnamese are experiencing serious logistics problems which make it increasingly difficult to sustain operations in the field. Most analysts accepted the view that the Vietnamese had lost momentum and were further from completing the conquest of Kampuchea than they were in early 1979. [C four lines…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA Document: East Asia Warning Assessment, July 28, 1981, Memorandum From The

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Document: East Asia Warning Assessment, July 28, 1981, Memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence. Released: The Black Vault, document CI02202, declassified in 2006. The following is a memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence, dated July 28, 1981, providing an East Asia Warning Assessment.

Date: AUG 3 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was CIA Document: East Asia Warning Assessment, July 28, 1981, Memorandum From The about?: Document: East Asia Warning Assessment, July 28, 1981, Memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence. Released: The Black Vault, document CI02202, declassified in 2006. The following is a memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence, dated July 28, 1981, providing an East Asia Warning Assessment.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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