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China’s Second Revolution – National Intelligence Estimate, May 1986, Central Intelligence Agency This declassified CIA National Intelligence Estimate from May 1986 assesses the sweeping reforms in the People’s Republic of China that senior Chinese leaders have called a “second revolution.” The document is notable for its detailed analysis of political, economic, military, and societal changes and for outlining the challenges the United States may face as China modernizes. The record was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request and declassified by the Director of Central Intelligence in June 2004. The Black Vault hosts the full text of the estimate at the URL provided in the archive entry. The estimate begins with a statement from Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in March 1985, in which he described the reforms initiated after the Third Plenum of the Central Committee in December 1978 as a “second revolution.” The assessment continues: “China’s far‑reaching reform effort—unprecedented in Communist experience—has already achieved certain notable successes and is likely to continue, albeit at a somewhat reduced pace, over the next decade. This means that in the broader overall context China’s power and influence will grow, a prospect that will offer both significant new long‑term opportunities and challenges for the United States.” The principal goals of the reform movement, which the authors argue constitute a second Chinese revolution, are listed as follows: — To restructure, reorient, and rejuvenate the political leadership. This entails reorganizing and reforming the Party; separating Party and state functions; revamping ideology along more pragmatic lines; establishing stronger legal and institutional structures; and bringing younger, better‑educated, and more qualified personnel into positions of responsibility. — To expand the economy. This entails narrowing the scope of central planning and gradually allowing market forces to determine more economic activity; improving efficiency, productivity, and quality in production; raising the standard of living; developing more effective financial institutions; gradually eliminating government involvement; promoting development of a relatively unregulated tertiary sector; opening China’s economy to foreign participation; and giving priority to existing industrial bases. — To fashion a leaner, more professional military establishment. This entails establishing a younger and more educated officer corps; reducing the overall size of the armed forces; constricting the role of the military in the economy and in politics; reorganizing military regions and commands; and acquiring and deploying improved weapons and equipment from domestic and foreign sources. — To create a society less constrained by political and social controls. — To expand ties to the outside world that will assure China breathing space to concentrate on its ambitious modernization efforts and to provide access to…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

Case File · ARCHIVE-978Declassified

Filed AUG 2 · 2026Runtime 3 min

CIA China’s Second Revolution – National Intelligence Estimate, May 1986, Central

U.S. public record · FOIAUpdated August 2, 2026

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” The document is notable for its detailed analysis of political, economic, military, and societal changes and for outlining the challenges the United States may face as China modernizes. The record was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request and declassified by the Director of Central Intelligence in June 2004.

Date: AUG 2 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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China’s Second Revolution – National Intelligence Estimate, May 1986, Central Intelligence Agency This declassified CIA National Intelligence Estimate from May 1986 assesses the sweeping reforms in the People’s Republic of China that senior Chinese leaders have called a “second revolution.” The…

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What was CIA China’s Second Revolution – National Intelligence Estimate, May 1986, Central about?: ” The document is notable for its detailed analysis of political, economic, military, and societal changes and for outlining the challenges the United States may face as China modernizes. The record was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request and declassified by the Director of Central Intelligence in June 2004.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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CIA China’s Second Revolution – National Intelligence Estimate, May 1986, Central

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