What did the declassified documents reveal?

This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum on People's Republic of China foreign policy during the post‑Mao succession struggle, dated February second, nineteen seventy‑three. The document is notable because it assesses how a potential leadership transition in Beijing could affect the United States' policy of détente and the broader trajectory of U.S.–PRC relations. The memorandum was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the Central Intelligence Agency. The Black Vault posted the full text on its website on the release date, providing a downloadable PDF and a plain‑text transcription. The declassification authority was the CIA’s Office of Information Management, which cleared the material for public dissemination. To: The Secretary From: EA – Marshall Green Subject: PRC Foreign Policy in the Post‑Mao Succession Struggle On January eighth you sent to the President an INR study on China’s internal problems which noted that the death of either Mao or Zhou could throw the door open to PRC policy change. The attached Memorandum for the President examines the impact of the succession crisis on PRC foreign policy and concludes that the basic thrust, including the policy of détente with the United States, would probably continue. However, preoccupation with internal issues and the inability of a new leadership to propose or agree to major initiatives in foreign affairs will tend to make China conservative in the conduct of its foreign relations until the successor leadership has established itself. This conservatism may, on the one hand, impel the Chinese to seek at least some surface improvement in relations with the Soviet Union while, on the other hand, inhibiting the PRC’s ability to move forward with the United States. If this assessment is correct, we can probably assume that any major forward movement in U.S.–PRC relations which does not take place while Mao and Zhou are still alive may have to be postponed for an indeterminate period of time during the transition. Once the succession crisis is upon us our main concern may therefore not be to advance the relationship but to preserve it. To minimize the danger that U.S.–PRC relations might erode during this transition period, we recommend that our efforts with the Chinese now have as a major objective to institutionalize the relationship by involving and committing as many levels of the PRC leadership as possible to the policy of détente. Recommendation: That you sign the attached memorandum to the President. Attachment: Memorandum for the President – “Policy Implications for the United States of a Post‑Mao Succession Struggle.” --- Summary and Conclusions China, which is already experiencing a degree of political instability, may face a succession crisis in the next year or two with the death or incapacitation of Chairman Mao Zedong or Premier Zhou En‑lai. During such a crisis, we anticipate that the basic thrust of PRC foreign policy…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

Central Intelligence Agency Memorandum On People's Republic Of China Foreign

◆ BLUF — The short version

This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum on People's Republic of China foreign policy during the post‑Mao succession struggle, dated February second, nineteen seventy‑three. –PRC relations. The memorandum was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the Central Intelligence Agency.

Date: AUG 6 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum on People's Republic of China foreign policy during the post‑Mao succession struggle, dated February second, nineteen seventy‑three. The document is notable because it assesses how a potential leadership transition in Beijing could…

View the primary source document

Questions about this case

What was Central Intelligence Agency Memorandum On People's Republic Of China Foreign about?: This is a declassified Central Intelligence Agency memorandum on People's Republic of China foreign policy during the post‑Mao succession struggle, dated February second, nineteen seventy‑three. –PRC relations. The memorandum was released to the public through a Freedom of Information Act request filed with the Central Intelligence Agency.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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