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I call balls and strikes ⚾ — because politics needs refs, not cheerleaders.
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If you’ve been reading me for a while now, you know that I believe deeply that not all polls are created equal.
As in, there are some polls that have long track records of accuracy and transparency. And there are others — lots and lots and lots of others — that, well, don’t.
The important thing is to know which is which. Separating wheat from chaff and all of that.
One of my favorite polls — due to the rigor of its methodology and the openness with which it is conducted — is the New York Times/Siena poll. When NYT/Siena releases a national poll (or a state poll!), I pay very close attention.
Midterm elections tend to be a battle between the two parties’ bases. Casual voters simply aren’t as engaged in a midterm as they are in a presidential — and don’t usually turn out to vote in any significant numbers.
Given that base battle, it is critical for both parties to have engaged bases — people who feel passionately about the election and plan to vote no matter what.
On that front, Republicans have a problem.
Overall, 35% of voters nationally approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing while 60% disapprove in the Times/Siena poll.
But dig into the numbers and you see the even bigger problem for the GOP. Just 24% say they “strongly” approve of the job Trump is doing while 52% say they “strongly” disapprove.
Dig further and you find this: Just 60% of self-identified Republicans “strongly” approve of the job Trump is doing while 92% of Democrats “strongly” disapprove.
Democrats are angry. And angry people vote.
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