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Democrats are racking up historic victories across the country, flipping seats in unlikely places and putting Republicans on the defensive. But is this simply a backlash against Donald Trump, or a sign of something much bigger?
Lincoln Project co-founder and former Republican strategist joins me to unpack the scale of the Democratic wave, what’s driving voters to reject Republican candidates, and why affordability may be a more powerful political force than ideology.
We also discuss what these results mean for the future of the Democratic Party, whether progressives or moderates will shape its agenda, and how Trump and the GOP might respond to a bruising election night.
Plus, Galen explains why winning is only the beginning — and why Democrats now face enormous expectations to deliver.
Jessica:
Tonight we are watching what could be an extraordinary shift in American politics in Georgia. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won the governor’s race. She’s become the first Black woman elected governor in the United States of America. In South Carolina, doctor Annie Andrews has flipped a Senate seat for Democrats, a party that hasn’t won a Senate race in that state in 28 years, defeating Trump’s hand-picked candidate.
CNN has already called the House of Representatives for the Democrats. The Democrats need three more Senate seats to take control of that chamber, and Democrats are leading in both the Senate and Governor’s races in Texas. And here’s another measure of the night: Democrats are ahead in 58 House districts held by Republicans. Republicans are leading in just four districts held by Democrats.
Now those are leads. The votes are still being counted, but the scale is striking. To help us understand what is happening, I am joined by Reed Galen. He’s worked on presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and John McCain before co-founding Lincoln Project. He now writes about American politics in his newsletter, The Home Front.
Reed, A lot is happening on the home front tonight.
Reed:
I’ll tell you. I mean, when CNN called South Carolina for Annie Andrews, I literally let out a whoop. I couldn’t believe it. I don’t know that I can believe it. And not to be too harsh, Jessica, but I think this is probably the final humiliation for Lindsey Graham, to be honest with you.
This wave — so far, it’s only gotten to about the Mississippi, and I think it’s going to keep rolling west — is so broad and so deep. We’re not going to talk about specific House races, but you know, we could be talking north of 240 seats. Now they’re talking about leaders, soon to be a speaker designate, Hakeem Jeffries, having to deal with too many different factions.
I think he’ll be perfectly fine with this. Then you talked about Texas. Greg Abbott, four terms. Ken Paxton versus Talarico. I mean, it’s been 30 years since Republicans took over and haven’t let go.
I think that a lot of this isn’t just Donald Trump. It isn’t just data centers. I think that there’s a lot of people in Texas who have probably been fed up with all of the self-dealing of Greg Abbott, the bad behavior of their elected leaders. You know, I talked to several Latino friends of mine down there. Yes. The immigration piece was a solid part of it. But again, just like everybody else is, Carville said so many years ago, it is, in fact, the economy, stupid.
Democrats have an enormous opportunity here later this evening and going into tomorrow. As they prepare for a governing agenda … they’re also going to have a lot of very high expectations and a lot of very serious responsibilities.
Jessica:
I heard one Republican operative referred to this as a defeat of “biblical proportions.” Voters are really frustrated about the cost of living. We’ve talked a lot about affordability. They’re frustrated about the war in Iran. There have been terrible candidates put forward on the Republican side in some cases because they were handpicked by the president.
But I wonder, is this more than that? If this amounts to what it seems to be. where Democrats really almost run the board, is that a backlash against what the GOP control of Washington has stood for?
Reed:
Yes, one. But two, I think more broadly speaking, it’s a repudiation of, frankly, everything. Everybody is upset about everything. While Democrats have an enormous opportunity here later this evening and going into tomorrow, and as they prepare for a governing agenda, or at least a congressional agenda, they’re also going to have a lot of very high expectations and a lot of very serious responsibilities.
The things that the voters — whether or not it was a very progressive district, let’s say, like Colorado 1, with Melat Kiros or with Page Cognetti in Scranton, Pennsylvania — the voters were all saying the same thing: We don’t want this anymore. Establishment Democrats have a habit of under promising and then under delivering on that. I don’t think they’re going to have a lot of leeway on that, because the people coming to town know that — again, data centers, an 80-20 issue, affordability and 80-20 issue.
All of these things they can only do so much about. That’s true. But they should take this. And I think the Democratic Party, if they were listening to me, which they often don’t, would take this as the opportunity to say: Okay, not only are we going to govern as the people have asked us to, but how are we going to utilize this to push back even further on Trump and MAGA candidates?
We have seen, both on issues and here in elections, that when the American people finally do rise, they rise in a big way.
Jessica:
People are just in a throw the bums out mood, and they’re going to keep throwing bums out until this country starts to deliver some of what they’re expecting. That’s what you’re saying.
Reed:
Yes, 100% and rightfully so.
Jessica:
We’re also seeing a lot of historic firsts tonight. There’s the first Black woman elected governor in Georgia, the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina, the first openly gay man elected to the Senate as well. After years of Trump mocking diversity and putting down the diverse fabric of what America is, do you see a message in who voters are choosing, or do you think this is just in fact America not really caring about identity politics, and they’re just choosing the opposite of what’s in office?
Reed:
There’s probably some place in the middle, I’d say. They were choosing the candidate they preferred, certainly, and in a lot of cases by a lot. There’s a fair amount of, you know, you’re just not the person I dislike. But I think in some ways, it’s maybe — and I don’t know how exactly to say this as eloquently as I should, but maybe it’s that these voters are saying: I’m good with this. This person is the first Black governor. This is the first gay man to be elected to the United States Senate. I’m fine with those things. As Dr. King said, judge me on the content of my character, not the color of my skin. Maybe we took a small step forward towards that. As a friend of mine said, you know, the arc of history bends toward justice, but only if you jump on it once in a while.
I don’t want to make too much of it. I haven’t been this excited on election night in I don’t remember how long — I probably had hair the last time I was. There’s a heck of an opportunity for the country to wake up.
Listen, we got two more months of a Republican controlled Congress, and we got two more years of Donald Trump. So we shouldn’t whistle past that political graveyard. But I think we have a real opportunity to say this is what the people want. They have listened. They beat all the money. They beat all the interests. AI dumped millions of dollars. Elon Musk put, what, $400 million in the last couple of weeks into this. And I think that we have seen both on issues and here in elections, that when the American people finally do rise, they rise in a big way.
Jessica:
There is a lot of discussion about how this could be the election that sweeps progressives into power in the Democratic Party and proves progressive strength. But in fact, many of the Democrats doing well tonight are moderates, and are winning because you got to elect moderates if you’re trying to win in Trump plus-ten districts, which is happening.
What does that tell you about the coalition behind these results and the mix that’s going to have influence inside the Democratic Party?
The argument is really in some ways not right versus left, but top versus bottom.
Reed:
The reset button for the establishment Democratic Party is to get back in line with whatever the status quo is. And as I mentioned earlier, yes, you will have some progressive candidates who came from mostly blue districts. We’ll put El-Sayed aside for a second.
But a lot of them who are going to come to Washington for the first time feeling like they were brought in on a wave of, we’re going to do something different. And I think that you’re going to see a lot of them who are really focused on the economy and who really are going to say, no, we’re not going to cut deals with industry A or industry B — like, we’re going to hold these people to account. That’s really not a progressive or a moderate thing. I think that’s more of a realization by a lot of candidates and by the country that the argument is really in some ways not right versus left, but top versus bottom.
Jessica:
What does it do to the expectation that progressives in the DSA are going to drive the party’s direction? Do you still think that’s going to be a major force?
Reed:
Well, they certainly have energy. And there’s going to be more progressives in both the United States House and the United States Senate. I mean, I think that Greg Cesar, who’s the chair of the House Progressive Caucus, I think he already had 100 members. He’s probably going to have like 110 members, maybe 105, whatever the number is. But it’s a significant part of the caucus.
As I’ve understood, they already have a plan to bring things to the floor, to go to — if it’s Speaker Jeffries, which I assume it would be — and say, like, these are the things that we care about. Most of the time, I would say that the things that they’ll be focused on would be, from an economic perspective, very broadly popular with the electorate, with the American people.
This is what Democrats often have trouble doing, which is coalition management. I’m not suggesting they do this, but think about how many times over the years, when Republicans were in charge of the US House, that they passed bills they knew had no chance of ever either passing the Senate or becoming law. Because they knew that there was some core of their base that had an expectation that they were going to at least try.
Think about how many times over the years, when Republicans were in charge of the US House, that they passed bills they knew had no chance of ever either passing the Senate or becoming law — because they knew that there was some core of their base that had an expectation that they were going to at least try.
Jessica:
And that’s not what Democrats do.
Reed:
No.
Jessica:
I spoke to somebody in the South Carolina GOP headquarters. They were like, people here are pissed. They’re pissed that the president picked a candidate who they thought could not win. And the other candidate maybe could have.
So I’m kind of curious, if this were a rational White House. What should they do on a day after results like this?
Reed:
Well, if you go back to 2006 or 2010 when, respectively, President Bush and President Obama suffered very, very crushing defeats — and probably ‘94, I assume that President Clinton showed some level of, you know, modesty in the wake of that as well. Trump’s not going to do that. He’s already going to blame people. The staff is blaming the candidates. Of course, it all comes down to him. He is the alpha and the omega of the Republican Party. He has no one to blame but himself. But of course, what did we expect?
Jessica:
He’s saying, I wasn’t on the ballot.
Reed:
No, he wasn’t. And listen, that’s the one thing. There is a big cohort of Republican voters that do not show up when he’s not there, because they’re not really Republicans. They’re Trumpers. They’re not really Republicans. They wouldn’t be considered conservative, I think, in the use of that word that I used to expect.
Between the Republicans who are just there for Trump and then the people who are probably more say, Romney-esque, but have gone along with it and just don’t want anything more to do with it — and then a few probably crossed over.
Jessica:
You know, I thought that sometime in the last ten years, we jumped into some sort of alternate timeline or a parallel universe, and I wonder if we’ve jumped into yet another one, but in a more pleasant way.
Reed:
Again, we’ve got some time to get through. I understand what you’re saying. You’re making a good point though, which is there is no going back. We are 10, 11 years into the Trump era. We should have an expectation that at the end of the Trump era, two years from now, two-plus years from now, we will be in a much different place still.
So I think that for for these leaders who are about to take office, who are winning tonight, it’s not just about, OK, I’m going to go get my special pen and ride the fun elevator and everything else — it’s what am I projecting out that this world in this country is going to look like? I think over the course of the next 18 months, that’s a conversation that the entire country needs to have, because it’s not just going to be about the 2028 election. We have the opportunity to say, what do we want this country to look like for the next 10, 20, 30 years?
Jessica:
Well, we will have time for that conversation. Reed. I’m so grateful for your time tonight. How are you going to stay up watching the results?
Reed:
You know, I’m just an hour ahead of you, so it’s only 8:45 my time. Living out west makes it all much easier.
Jessica:
That is true. We’re going to have a few more hours in us. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate it, and I will talk to you soon.
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