“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.”— Aldous Huxley
Following up on yesterday’s
Family Mattersdiscussion about the ‘familial’ nature of the current Administration, I came across 2 pieces from center-right (non-Trump-supporting) columnists that posit a non-zero possibility (and note the DJTJ polls in the top 2 of almost every recent 2028 candidate poll).‘The Second Coming? We know who the Republican nominee will be in 2028 . . . if he wants it.’
Bulwark‘The Son Also Rises: Is Donald Trump Jr. the GOP frontrunner in 2028?
Dispatch
Worth your consideration:
Always know the other side. Great piece by my friend Rich Excell
‘What if?War, El Niño, Pestilence, and Famine: The Coming Shock to Global Food Supplies
Stacked Risk to Global Food Supplies
Craig TindaleIranian tankers bypass US blockade
FTIran fires on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing two and escalating tensions with the US (
AP,NY Times,Bloomberg)US intercepts at least three Iranian-flagged oil tankers in Asian waters, looks to expand global reach (
Reuters,AP,link)Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz ships intended to show it retains stranglehold over the waterway (
NY Times,link,Reuters)White House downplays Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting to a more conciliatory tone (
NY Times)White House awaits Iran’s response on peace talks, demands Iran transfer enriched uranium (
Bloomberg,Reuters)SpaceXengineers slow to adopt Grok for technical work due to ineffectiveness compared to alternatives such as Claude (Bloomberg)SK Hynixanticipates memory prices to rise amid surging demand and supply tightness, guides significant increase in capex (Reuters)Softbankseeking $10B loan backed by itsOpenAIinvestment to fund push into AI (Bloomberg)House Foreign Affairs Committee advances bill aimed at restricting AI technology exports to China (
Bloomberg)GOP Senator Hawley urges Republicans to reject $300M AI lobby, citing political costs (
FT)
Key Takeaways
Market momentum stalls on geopolitical uncertainty: After surging 9% in April and notching multiple record highs, US stocks are taking a breather Thursday as Iran-US peace talks remain in limbo and Brent crude pushes above $103 a barrel
The Iran conflict continues to escalate from geopolitical flashpoint to structural supply crisis, forcing systematic repricing across global markets .
Iran has received its first revenue from Strait of Hormuz tolls even as the waterway remains effectively closed, with Iranian gunboats firing on commercial vessels Wednesday.
Brent crude climbed above $103 per barrel Thursday morning as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled, with President Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the naval blockade .
European natural gas futures rose as the LNG supply disruption persists, with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warning that world market LNG prices may not stabilize or fall “for years”.
DXY is extending gains on safe-haven demand and oil-driven inflation fears, while emerging market currencies and equities sold off sharply. Cross-asset stress is intensifying with the dollar strengthening across all major currencies, led by weakness in the South African rand (-0.6%) and Indonesian rupiah (hitting a fresh record low near 17,295) .
Central banks are pivoting toward tightening, with the Philippines raising rates 25 basis points to 4.50% and UK PMI data driving expectations for two BOE hikes this year .
AI investment accelerates dramatically: Tesla’s plan to spend over $25 billion on capex this year—triple last year’s outlay—and its $2 billion AI hardware acquisition signal the massive capital requirements of the AI transformation sweeping corporate America
Earnings season reveals resilience and caution: Companies are beating estimates but flagging supply chain disruptions and energy cost pressures from the Iran conflict, with airlines facing particularly acute challenges from surging jet fuel prices
The S&P 500 gained 1%, extending what is set to be the best monthly performance since 2020;SPX has already surged 9% in April
The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.64% to 24,657.57, marking its fourth record close of 2026
Chipmakers extended their winning streak to 16 consecutive days, the longest ever
Global markets: European stocks showed mixed performance Thursday morning, with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 0.2% . France’s CAC 40 gained 0.4% while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.2% . The FTSE 100 lost 0.5% . Asian markets declined broadly, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.5% .
Geopolitics
Iran-US tensions remain the dominant market risk as peace talks remain in limbo and both sides continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz . The US said it was waiting for a response from Iran before the warring sides can restart peace talks .
President Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry
Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, escalating tensions in the critical shipping lane
Senior Iranian adviser Mahdi Mohammadi said on X that Trump’s ceasefire extension “means nothing”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized the US for “endless hypocritical” messaging and accused Washington of undermining prospects for meaningful negotiations
Reuters reported late Wednesday that the US intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters
Trump says he will not lift the blockade until Iran agrees to a deal, while Tehran says it has no plans to negotiate or reopen the strait as long as the US siege remains in place
Market implications: The impasse is sending Brent crude further above $100 a barrel and causing renewed caution across risky assets . Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that today’s tumult in the Strait of Hormuz may be a dress rehearsal for tomorrow’s war in the Pacific .
Broader geopolitical context: China has stashed away far more oil than any other country, with the stockpile surging last year and emerging as a strategic advantage as the world faces an oil shock with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut . China is set to open seven nuclear reactors this year as the nation develops the world’s largest atomic energy fleet to boost energy self-sufficiency .
Financials Sector Deep-Dive Analysis
1-Week Performance Leaders
Top Gainers (1-Week):
WCCP US Equity: +69.7% (from $0.033 to $0.056)
FRMM US Equity: +94.1% (from $2.37 to $4.60)
FDCT US Equity: +90.0% (from $0.020 to $0.038)
CLNV US Equity: +70.0% (from $0.010 to $0.017)
BTM US Equity: +50.5% (from $5.05 to $7.60)
Note: Many of these top gainers are smaller-cap or micro-cap financial stocks with lower liquidity.
HBAN: Reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.37, beating estimates of $0.33;approv…
