“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” — Stephen Hawking****Nice Win Rory!!
The line between fiction and reality continues to blur.
Seems like our policy in the guulf right now was crafted by Senator Blutarsky:
Worth the read:
‘Why the Vatican and the White House Are on the Outs’
(FP)The Forgotten War That Iran Already Won Tehran fought for decades to prevent Israeli-Palestinian peace.
(Atlantic)‘It’s quiet. Too quiet’
(FT Alphaville)from
Alyosha‘check and almost mate’‘Six lessons for investors on pricing disaster’
(Gillian Tett, FT)‘How AI, Inflation, and Scarcity Are Driving Bitcoin Into Its Strongest Regime’
(Jordi Visser)
Let’s see if this holds true.
Bill Ackman is in talks to launch a strategy that would make big bets on complacency in financial markets, in a bid to mimic the success of doomsday trades the billionaire investor made during the pandemic. Ackman’s Pershing Square would use the fund to make “asymmetric” trades aimed at profiting by wagering against the prevailing narrative in markets, according to people familiar with the matter.
From
Private Debt News: Weekly News and Insights:‘On Monday, S&P Global and a syndicate of banks including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and RBC launched the S&P CDX Financials Index, a credit default swap benchmark that allows investors to take direct positions on BDC credit risk for the first time.
About 12% of the index is tied to private debt funds managed by Apollo, Ares and Blackstone. Senior tranches of private credit CLOs have been widening. Deutsche Bank’s US distressed desk more than doubled its quarterly profit, booking over $100 million partly by shorting software company debt. Wall Street equity trading desks are on pace for an $18 billion quarter, the best on record, driven partly by private credit volatility.
The institutional infrastructure for expressing negative views on this market is now live.
That’s a different environment than the one that existed three months ago.’
‘More than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and BDC-linked software and technology debt is coming due through 2028. The single biggest year is 2028, with roughly $130 billion maturing. Citigroup’s Michael Anderson and Steph Choe flagged the specific problem: a third of these loans still have 2021 credit dates, meaning the borrowers haven’t demonstrated capital market access in years. The average price of the 2021 vintage, 2028 maturity cohort is $83.40.’
from Kevin Muir’s substack:
Some charts from Hartnett @ BaML
Systematic trading seems to limit the range of moves, as mean reversion kicks in more quickly
This MAGA rift bears watching, especially as primary filing dates pass in many states
