ODESA—Europe could lose the political will to defend Ukraine at the ballot box because voters are worried about paying their bills, keeping their jobs, and raising their children in a safe neighborhood. I certainly would not blame them.
A family facing the loss of its livelihood will naturally put its immediate security ahead of geopolitics.
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Any strategy for sustaining support for Ukraine has to begin with that fact. Sunday’s election results in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt show what happens when governments fail to deliver at home.
A party can be right about Russia and still lose because it has failed at governing domestically.
And Ukraine should not have to pass a European domestic ideological test to deserve support.
The AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, more than double its 2021 result, winning 39 of 83 seats—three short of a majority. The Christian Democratic Union, which has governed the state for 24 years, collapsed to 17.2%, losing half its support and 25 seats. Turnout was 77.8%.
Whether Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s 35-year-old lead candidate for the eastern German state, who campaigned on mass deportations, can assemble the parliamentary strength to govern remains unresolved. But the result already demonstrates how far the balance has shifted. A party in which at least a large minority advocates closer relations with Russia is now the dominant electoral force in a German state—and one whose Saxony-Anhalt association is classified “confirmed right-wing extremist” by the state’s own Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
Europe’s military commitments are only as durable as the political majorities behind them. A party can be right about Russia and still lose because it has failed at governing Germany, Britain, France, or any other European country. Voters can understand the danger abroad and remove a government that has lost their confidence at home. Explaining the strategic consequences of a Russian victory does not pay the heating bill, nor does it make streets safer, or apartments more affordable.
Using Russia as a general explanation for political discontent allows governments to evade responsibility, and it drives those voters who are dissatisfied into Russian arms.
