A new Urban Institute study found that tens of thousands of young Connecticut adults could lose Medicaid under the federal budget law Republicans passed in 2025
New work requirements, more frequent eligibility checks and stricter documentation rules are expected to drive most of the coverage losses, according to the study
Federal Medicaid cuts are also expected to cost Connecticut hospitals hundreds of millions of dollars, with hospitals that serve more Medicaid patients hit hardest
As many as 47,000 Connecticut residents ages 19 to 24 could lose Medicaid coverage under changes in the federal budget law Republicans passed in 2025, according to a new study from the Urban Institute.
According to the study, new work requirements and a doubling of the frequency of determining eligibility from once a year to every six months taking effect in 2027, as well as stringent increases in documentation requirements beginning in 2028, are expected to disconnect between 25,000 and 47,000 young Connecticut residents from Medicaid.
The significance of these changes comes primarily from their increase in reporting requirements. Understanding new rules, properly submitting documentation and keeping pace with new, shorter windows of time between determinations are expected to have serious impacts; on top of Connecticut, they could lead to a total of 2.3 million people in the 19-24 age group losing coverage nationwide.
Young adults are more likely to still be in school or doing gig work, which the study said would further contribute to coverage losses.
The study estimated that as many as 88% of young adults currently covered by Medicaid would meet the new work requirements, but that state systems would need to catch up to the new reporting standards. Nationally, about 800,000 young adults would lose coverage because of more frequent eligibility redeterminations, and 1.5 million would lose coverage for failing to meet work requirements, according to the study.
Medicaid losses will have further impact on Connecticut hospitals, worsening the standard of care across all of the state’s public health sector. According to CT Health Policy, Connecticut hospitals will lose $378 million annually in the next decade from federal Medicaid cuts, representing 2.6 percent of all revenue in the state. Some hospitals that receive higher levels of Medicaid as total revenue, like St. Mary’s in Waterbury, could lose up to 3.5% of total revenue under the changes.
By Joe O’Leary
