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Binance has shown it can pay for crypto’s biggest hack, but the phased, chain-by-chain reopening shows that restoring access is the harder job, and withdrawals will now reveal whether user trust held up as well as the balance sheet did.
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In Today’s Email:
What Matters:Binance Reopens Withdrawals in Phases 👀Product of the Week:Leveraged Bets on Anthropic’s IPO 🔎Charts:: Coinbase Bets Beyond Spot Trading 📊
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WHAT MATTERS
**State of play: **Binance is reopening withdrawals with bitcoin first, but how slowly it is restoring access, chain by chain, shows that covering $6.3B on paper is easier than getting every asset back into users’ hands.
The first window ran from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC on Sunday for BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB and XRP, with the most requested networks prioritized.
Other chains will reopen only after each passes its own security and stability checks, and Binance gave no timeline.
TRM Labs says the stolen funds include 18,270 BTC worth about $1.47B and 200,630 ETH, plus large amounts of USDT, USDC, XRP and SOL.
Binance says it has now replaced 95% of affected assets, partly from its SAFU emergency fund; the rest are illiquid tokens outside the top ten that take longer to source.
Unlike the frozen stablecoins, the stolen BTC and ETH cannot be blocked, and Binance has promised a full proof-of-reserves report.
Why it matters: Reopening withdrawals is the real test of Binance’s promise that users won’t bear the loss, and how quickly funds leave will show how much trust survived the hack.
**Our take: **The last 5% is the telling part. Every illiquid token an exchange lists is a liability it may be unable to replace at scale, so expect exchanges to rethink long-tail listings.
For builders and investors: Binance’s ongoing market and OTC buying could briefly support prices of the affected long-tail tokens. Treat a proof-of-reserves snapshot as a starting point until the full report is out.
PRODUCT OF THE WEEK
Traders on Hyperliquid can already take leveraged positions on Anthropic weeks before its IPO, through contracts that hold no shares and trade at prices the platform operator sets, so they create a market price where none existed before.
Entropy’s ANTH tracks valuation and recently implied about $1.9T, compared with the $1.5T to $1.75T investors expect and the $965B from Anthropic’s May round.
Trade.xyz’s ANT tracks one Class A share and dropped from about $138 to $110 in its first three hours on $8.7M of volume, with up to 10x leverage.
ANT converts into a standard perp once Anthropic lists, with trade.xyz expecting Nov 20; if there is no listing by Jan 19, 2027, it settles in cash at its average trading price.
Trade.xyz says its five completed pre-IPO markets finished within 0.4% to 7% of opening prices, but a SpaceX contract crashed 45% in May and liquidated 405 users.
US traders are blocked through geoblocking and wallet screening, but Hyperliquid does not verify identity, and enforcement in similar cases has targeted operators.
**Other cool products: **
Base𝕏saysDenim mainnet arrives Nov 5.MetaMask𝕏launchesPro Mode for perps.Soneium𝕏launchesipUSD and IP Vault with Asseto.KaminolaunchesBackpack Market for tokenized-stock lending.Canton Strategic Holdingsplanstokenized share trading on Canton Network.
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CHARTS OF THE WEEK
**State of play: **Coinbase’s 66% profit jump looks strong until you see that a $715M crypto gain accounts for almost all of the $719M, and with revenue down 35% year over year, the real story is a business moving away from spot trading.
Total revenue was $1.22B, flat from last quarter, while spot volume fell 8% to $135B even as Coinbase gained market share.
Prediction markets passed $200M in annualized revenue, double the prior quarter, and kept growing through the slower sports months on the back of crypto contracts.
Bernstein estimates prediction markets and derivatives make up about 25% of transaction revenue, and Coinbase’s 7% drop in derivatives volume beat the industry’s 11% decline.
Subscription and services revenue now makes up nearly half of net revenue, helped by stablecoin revenue of $328M, up 3% quarter over quarter.
Bernstein and William Blair kept Outperform ratings with targets around $250 and $240, while COIN closed at $160.59.
**Our Take: **Coinbase is calling prediction markets a hedge against crypto cycles, but it is trading market risk for legal risk. As states sue over whether these contracts are illegal gambling, its fastest-growing product depends on a jurisdiction fight that could end up at the Supreme Court.
State of play: Strategy’s $19.5B quarter comes almost entirely from marking its bitcoin to market, while the cash it actually owes is growing through a preferred-stock machine that will now pay dividends every day and depends on BTC staying high.
A $20.91B bitcoin gain drove the result, up from $2.79B in net income a year earlier, while software revenue fell 3% to $125.4M.
Strategy held 848,517 BTC as of Oct 25, up 26% year to date, and says its Digital Credit products now total $16B in notional value across ten listed securities.
Holders of STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD approved daily dividends with 99.3% of votes; STRC pays first on Nov 2 and the other three follow on Jan 4.
K33 estimates STRC alone added $725M to annual dividend obligations, and Strategy spent $2.04B buying back STRC to restore it.
CFO Andrew Kang leaves on Nov 5 and COO Reza Virasteh becomes CFO in January 2027, while MSTR fell about 3.5% after hours.
Our take: With software revenue at just $125M a quarter, the payouts depend on raising new capital, so a long BTC drawdown would test whether “Digital Credit” is really credit.
QUICK BITES
How attackersbreachedBinance for $6.3B.North Korean hackerslaunder$242M of Binance loot via Tron.Binancesees$3.64B in net outflows after reopening withdrawals.Tether’s excess reservesnearly doubleto $8B as Q3 profit hits $1.5B.Trumpsaysthey’re looking into Binance hack as calls grow for crypto rules.Crypto card startupsare racking up lossesbuying loyalty with big rewards.
NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME
Filo’s𝕏readon 16 Shades of XPL.Crypto Bond’s𝕏readon Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle.Hans’s𝕏readon The $280M Cost of Onboarding Retail to Hyperliquid.
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