Hey, Raw America family. Welcome to the Sunday Wrapup. I’m here with my cup of coffee, and — well — things are looking good.
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Now, the map.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats must win back four. A month ago, that looked dubious. This weekend, prediction markets give Democrats roughly a two-in-three shot at the chamber — Kalshi in the mid-60s, Polymarket at 67 percent. (Kalshi is one of our sponsors.)
Political modelers are more cautious. Decision Desk HQ puts the odds at 56 percent and projects Democrats will win 51 seats. But every serious forecaster now has Democrats favored.
Here’s the Senate breakdown, for the races that matter.
James Talarico has led most October polls. CBS has him up 51-49%, Houston’s Hobby School 48-46, UT 50-47, and Emerson 48-46. Fox has them tied at 49%, Rasmussen tied at 45, and InsiderAdvantage has Paxton up one.
Paxton’s favorability is 17% underwater; Talarico is winning independents in polling nearly two to one.
Harris County broke its early-voting record every day this week — more than half a million votes, the fastest midterm start on record. Kalshi puts a Talarico win at 63%. But no Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.
Democrat Mary Peltola has led Republican Dan Sullivan in nearly every poll since late September: PPP 48-47%, Rasmussen 44-42, and New York Times/Siena at 50-43.
Betting market Kalshi has a Peltola win at around 74%. Forecasters recently moved the race to Leans Democratic.
Here’s what shows Republicans are running scared: Trump’s Justice Department sued Thursday to block certification of the results if Peltola wins, blaming a second “Dan Sullivan” on the ballot. Trump says he personally ordered it. They’re drafting the excuse before the votes are counted.
Probably the closest race is Maine. Troy Jackson, the logger who replaced Graham Platner, is running slightly ahead of Susan Collins, but by less than Collins’ challenger led before Collins won in 2020.
The Washington Post has him up 50-46%, Suffolk 49-47, and InsiderAdvantage by two. Fox News calls it a 49-49 tie. The Times/Siena poll had Collins ahead 49-46 — her only lead since late September. Kalshi now prices Jackson in the mid-60s after a seven-point jump last week. Collins has beaten the polls before, and the Times/Siena poll is considered the gold standard.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads appointed Senator Jon Husted 52-47% in Fox News’ most recent poll. Brown is up 48-44% in Marist, and 49-43 in CNN’s. Two Republican-friendly pollsters show Husted up by a hair.
Kalshi gives Brown about 67 percent odds to win. This is impressive: Trump carried Ohio by 11 points just two years ago. That’s how badly Trump is dragging down the GOP.
Abdul El-Sayed is looking strong. Recent polling averages give him a steady two-point edge over Republican Mike Rogers. Kalshi puts his victory odds at 69 percent. This is a seat we have to keep.
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In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are separated by about a point, the newest polls tilting toward Hinson. Markets put Hinson in the high 50s, but the early vote is now 18 points more Democratic than 2024.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is within a point of Republican Roger Marshall, the obstetrician who sued his own patients. Markets predict a Marshall win at about 60 percent.
A Democratic win would be huge: Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The truth is we don’t need either state to take the Senate, but the fact they’re close reveals how unpopular Trump is.
Two races in the South where Democrats have typically struggled look nearly certain; in both Georgia and North Carolina, prediction markets have Democrats as overwhelming favorites.
Dem Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 13% in Elon’s final poll. Jon Ossoff, once the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate, leads Mike Collins by eight in polling conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Georgia shattered its day-one early-voting record with 188,000 votes.
Want to know what this all means? If we keep Georgia and Michigan, flip North Carolina, and take three of Texas, Alaska, Maine or Ohio, we control the chamber. 51 is a majority. Kansas and Iowa would be gravy.
To win the House, Democrats need to pick up three to five seats. Decision Desk HQ gives us an 80 percent chance and projects 237 Democratic victories. Poliwave gives us 88 percent and projects 231, with a range of 216 to 248.
Markets favor Democrats by better than 90 percent. My read: a Democratic House is close to certain. Democrats will likely win 231 to 237 seats, with a floor in the low 220s. They need 218.
Before I go, I want to update you on one crucial story everyone missed this week.
Remember the July 2025 memo where Trump’s Justice Department declared there was no Epstein client list, no co-conspirators worth investigating, and nothing else to release?
Raw Story’s Jordan Green just obtained FBI emails showing the White House helped write it.
Two weeks before the memo dropped, Trump’s deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich emailed FBI Director Kash Patel. “Have something I can edit?” he asked.
Patel sent over the draft, and Budowich came back with “some suggested edits.” The FBI then redacted them before releasing the emails.
And when Trump AG Todd Blanche tried to send a “final version” with no letterhead, Budowich snapped: “Someone needs to own this. I can’t give a doc to a reporter that could easily be confused with a high school term paper.”
The memo clearing Trump was forced onto DOJ letterhead by a White House political operative shopping it to a reporter. The Justice Department didn’t want its name on it.
The emails surfaced because Democracy Defenders Fund sued under FOIA. Rep. Madeleine Dean told Raw Story she was “alarmed but not surprised.” The White House regurgitated its old chestnut that Trump has been “totally exonerated” — a word no court has ever used.
Also this week, a TMZ documentary aired a former cellmate’s account of Epstein bragging about flying “me and Donald and a French girl” to Miami. Trump swears he was never on Epstein’s plane, but the DOJ’s own records list him on at least eight flights.
This is why Raw America exists. The Times had the memo and left Trump’s top aide out of it. We didn’t.
A 66 percent chance of victory means Republicans keep the Senate one time in three. Odds aren’t results. That’s why they’re called odds. Collins has beaten her polls before, and Texas has crushed Democratic dreams (and pocketbooks) for thirty years.
Quick message before we go. We’re running out of October and we are well behind our paid subscriber goal for the month, which matters more than usual right now because Facebook has essentially cut off our distribution and Elon Musk’s X is doing the same thing on his side. Meta made that choice after we called Mark Zuckerberg out for cozying up to this president, and Musk is squeezing us while pouring money into Republican campaigns, so the only reliable way this reporting reaches you is the one they cannot touch, which is your inbox. A paid subscription runs 17 cents a day, less than a dollar and change each week — and it funds a newsroom that answers to readers instead of owners.
Thanks for spending your Sunday with us. I’ll see you next week.
—John Byrne, Founder, Raw America & Raw Story
