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Mike Madrid is making a prediction he’s never made before: a Democrat will win Texas.
The Republican pollster, Lincoln Project co-founder, and author of The Latino Century joins me to explain why he thinks Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico can pull it off — and what the race could tell us about the coalition that returned Trump to the White House.
Where is that coalition fracturing? What do polls miss? And which early results could signal where the night is headed?
Mike also challenges a familiar assumption about Latino voters: that immigration is their defining issue. He argues that affordability and economic frustration are driving their choices, with consequences for races in Texas, Ohio and Kansas.
His warning for Democrats: rejecting Republicans isn’t the same as embracing the Democratic agenda. We discuss what it would take to earn voters’ lasting support — and how Democrats could balance economic priorities with oversight and investigations if they win Congress.
Plus, his predictions for key Senate races and the results he’ll watch first.
Watch our conversation at the top of this newsletter, and tell us what you’re watching as the votes come in.
Below is a transcript of our discussion, lightly edited for clarity.
JESSICA:
Hi, everyone. One of the big questions tonight is: Can the coalition that returned Trump to the White House keep Republicans in control of Congress or will they flip Congress tonight? Joining me to discuss this is Mike Madrid, Republican pollster, co-founder of the Lincoln Project and author of The Latino Century.
Mike, hi. What are the vibes out there in your view?
MIKE:
Well, look, I think the fundamentals of this race were set months ago. You have to have campaigns, obviously. Campaigns matter. Messaging matters. Democracy matters. But I haven’t seen an anti-incumbent year — it’s really bad out.
JESSICA:
So tell us first, when the polls close tonight, where’s the first place you’ll look and what will that tell you?
MIKE:
I’m going to be looking for a couple of things. The first place I’m always looking is Virginia because it closes pretty early and they count pretty quickly. What you’re going to be looking for is really the margins in key counties. We don’t need to go through all of the counties. You’ll know right away whether or not Republicans or Democrats are overperforming. If you’re watching cable news, you’re going to hear it all day long, or if you’re on the internet watching it, you’re going to get that assessment very, very quickly.
Watch Passaic County up in New Jersey to see what the turnout numbers look like for the Hispanic votes; it’s the most Hispanic-dense county. New Jersey numbers will come in early. And then keep your eyes on Florida and look for the statewide margins between David Jolly and Brian Donalds. And then, of course, the Nixon campaign, Angie Nixon, sort of the DSA candidate, if she’s within single digits, it’s probably going to be a very good night for Democrats nationwide.
JESSICA:
So basically what you’re saying is you’re looking at these states not only for what the actual results are there, but because you can extrapolate how other states might break in the end.
MIKE:
Yeah, I’m a little nerdy. That’s what I do. I’m more interested in what else is coming afterwards — the margins are what we’re looking for because they remain consistent almost overwhelmingly across the country. I’m not looking for a particular race — I mean, look, if you want to look for a race, look at Maine. If Susan Collins goes down — and she might, but I think of all the battleground states she’s probably in the best position because of the unique political environment of Maine — but if Susan Collins loses, it’s going to be a very big blue wave.
JESSICA:
OK, that’s a good one to watch. I mean, there’s so many. So let me stay broadly on the night, and then we’re going to talk about Latino voters. Pollsters have been struggling to accurately measure Trump’s support. And I think it’s in part because MAGA voters can be especially hard to reach when you’re trying to do a poll. Can you give folks a little bit of insight into that? Is that because they’re refusing to talk to pollsters at all?
And can you help people understand how they then account for these voters who won’t answer the questions?
MIKE:
There’s something called non-response bias, which is the demographic most likely to not respond to pollsters or don’t like the media the most or don’t trust institutions. They tend to be older, white, male conservatives, which is Trump’s base. So when you’re a pollster and you’re calling this demographic, you need a certain number of responses to get a representative sample. If you keep getting hang ups or nobody responding to you, you keep calling and calling until you find the exception to that rule.
That exception is by definition not representative of the sample that you’re getting. And so oftentimes by a few percentage points, there can be an “underrepresented” or I think the real misnomer is a “shy” Trump voter. There’s nothing shy about Trump supporters. They just don’t want to respond. So there have been polls when Trump is on the ballot where Donald Trump will overperform.
But this is really important: Donald Trump is not on the ballot. In 2018, those voters did not show up. Not only did they not show up, but Democratic strength was underrepresented. It was a stronger Democratic year. 2018 was important because that was the first midterm when Trump was president. All this year, what we have been seeing is Democratic underrepresentation in the polls — dramatically overperforming in New Jersey, in Virginia, in Miami, in Texas and California, everywhere. Democrats have been dramatically overperforming.
So this bias can go both ways. My strong sense is when you look at history, this midterm election will look a lot like the 2018 election because of who is showing up. That probably suggests that if there is an undercounting or an underrepresentation, it will probably benefit the Democrats.
JESSICA:
Wow. So Democrats could have a massive night tonight.
MIKE:
They could have a massive night.
JESSICA:
Let’s talk about one of the reasons that may be the case, which is Latino voters. They helped power Trump’s victory in 2024. This is your specialty. We know they could help deliver big wins for Democrats tonight. But would you help folks understand how much of the shift is explicitly about ICE and mass deportations? And if it is that versus affordability — what’s happening? And how does what’s happening compare with what those voters expected when Trump campaigned promising mass deportations?
MIKE:
Well, this is the misconception that we have as a country. It goes back to the way we have a very elementary understanding of race and ethnicity in this country. By a three to one margin, what is motivating Latino voters is the economy and affordability. And that doesn’t mean it’s not ICE, but you’ve got to really put it in perspective. I think a lot of folks that, frankly, are not Latino will say, well, there’s got to be some racial or ethnic reason why voters need to vote or why they’re motivated.
That’s not true. The economy is what is motivating these voters. They’re lower on the economic ladder, more blue collar, far more price sensitive than any group in the country. And so again, by a three to one margin, all of the polling is saying this is about the economy, the economy, and the economy. So that really needs to be the lesson that Wednesday morning after a very historic election that Democrats have — is they’ve got to fix this problem.
There’s this obsession with saying the way you talk to Latinos is through the immigration lens. It’s not only not true now, it’s never been true. Again, I’m not saying it’s not an important issue, but it’s not nearly as important as fixing the economy. That’s what I think the Democrats are going to need to be thinking about positioning for the 2028 presidential election, is can we become a blue collar working class party again focused on building an economy for those folks.
If they can do it, they stand a very good chance of realigning the 270 map through the Sun Belt, winning back and holding on to Latino voters. If they can’t, there’s every likelihood, every expectation that Latino voters will go back to Republicans in that scenario.
JESSICA:
So which states that are considered swing states tonight, especially for the Senate, have a large share of Latino voters and the decision could ride on which way they break?
MIKE:
Well, certainly Texas is one that we’re all watching right now. And I would say North Carolina and Georgia are the next two, but those aren’t contended. The places you really need to watch are Ohio and Kansas because about five to seven percent of their electorates are Hispanic. And we don’t think of those as traditionally Hispanic states, but five to seven points is going to be larger than the margin of victory in both of those states.
What’s really fascinating about this year, after doing this for 35 years, this is the year where it’s going to be the most consequential ever. It will be the most consequential voting bloc for the next thirty years now because it’s starting to grow. I’m getting calls from Alaska and the Peltola race talking about the Latino vote because of the fishery and energy industries.
It’s happening in Maine. Wherever there’s a blue collar industry, you’re going to find Latinos are going to be occupied there. And even though they may be only five to seven percent of the entire electorate, a lot of these races are going to be decided by that margin or less. That makes the difference.
JESSICA:
Is there anything you can tell us about the Latino voters that you’ve assessed to date who are staying with Trump versus those who are breaking with him? And is it really socioeconomic?
MIKE:
That’s a great question. No, what tends to happen is there’s this kind of obsession with the social conservative nature of Latinos that describes why a lot of these voters for socially conservative reasons support the Republican party. That number has always been about a third of Hispanic voters. It ranges from about 25-26% percent to about 30-32% percent depending on the state. That won’t change. Those voters will not leave. But it’s also not accurate to say that this is a very fast growing part of the Latino community. There is erosion of Catholic affiliation to becoming more evangelical.
But for every Latino that leaves the Catholic Church to become more fundamentalist, some leave religion altogether. The fastest growing group of religion amongst Latinos is no religion at all. And those voters tend to have very progressive cultural positions, much more progressive economic positions, and tend to look more like the overall American electorate than a culturally conservative Republican voter.
JESSICA:
Are they young?
MIKE:
They’re kind of a mix of everything, but these younger voters that are happening right now, the most fascinating characteristic — and I think that’s going to redefine American politics — is the fact that they’re far, far more likely to be independent voters, non-affiliated with either party than any other group in America. They’re the least partisan by a wide stretch. They’re also the least racially polarized. So they don’t view themselves — because they’re not, generally — as either Black or White voters. They don’t respond to the arguments that I think a lot of people want to impose on them.
Back to the immigration question, they just don’t see this as a racial or ethnic issue as much as other groups might want them to or see them as. And again, those two dynamics, I think, have the promise of perhaps breaking us out of this hyper polarized era that has basically suffocated our democracy and made our work intractable and left our politics very zero sum.
I think over the course of the next decade, we’re going to see that change. The youth remains the great hope.
These younger voters … the most fascinating characteristic — and I think that’s going to redefine American politics — is the fact that they’re far, far more likely to be independent voters, non-affiliated with either party than any other group in America. They’re the least partisan by a wide stretch. They’re also the least racially polarized.
JESSICA:
Yeah. Let’s talk about Texas for a minute. I’m curious what it would take for Latino voters to put Talarico over the top and whether you think they will. What has his campaign understood about reaching them that other Democrats have missed?
MIKE:
I went to South Texas in September and I got to interview James Talarico. I wanted to ask him just this question. So I did. And I asked him why he was getting as much attraction with Hispanic voters, more so than other candidates — including, by the way, he’s out polling Gina Hinojosa. Not by much, but measurable and consequential and enough to be interesting enough for somebody like me to ask the question. And what he said was fascinating.
What he said was Latinos are part of a generation of Americans who feel that the American dream has been stolen from them. And the reason why that answer struck me was because if I had asked a Kamala Harris or a Joe Biden that question, they would have said this is about ICE raids or mass deportations, and let’s approach this as a racial question. James Talarico is not saying that. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t support reining in ICE. Of course he does. But he understands that first and foundationally, this is a class and generational voter.
And that’s what the breath of fresh air is in the Democratic Party — realizing if we approach these folks as a generation of Americans, a generation that has grown up more multicultural, more diverse, and more pluralistic than any generation of Americans before, we’re going to start getting a better conversation with them. We’re going to connect with them more. And that’s absolutely right. That’s what I think is the key — once he approaches them that way he’s getting the opportunity to have a longer conversation, which gets to the other part of what you were asking. That is, a lot of these counties we focus so much on in south Texas, if you start to see a 65-Democrat, 35-Republican vote share, that’s enough for James Talarico to win. It’s actually arguably enough for Gina Hinojosa to win. And the wave is moving in that direction, at least from early turnout numbers.
Now, we don’t know how these voters are going to vote. Texas does tend to be a little bit more conservative than a place like California. But a lot of these counties where Hispanics were voting a majority for Donald Trump — if you see that move into parity, a 15- to 20-point shift, that’s likely enough to see James Talarico win. And right now it’s looking like the margin is bigger than that. So I’m not somebody who’s ever been a believer that Texas is going to go blue. I never believed that the Beto O’Rourke phenomenon was real. I am predicting that James Talarico will win tonight.
JESSICA:
Wow. That’s huge. Sounds like he also may have studied your work.
MIKE:
Maybe. I think there’s a reason why they gave me the opportunity to sit down and talk.
JESSICA:
Right. So beyond Latino voters, Trump won in ‘24 in part by gaining ground with even more of the Democratic coalition, including younger men — strong support, as you said, from working class voters, some Black men. Which parts of that coalition still look solid to you and which are starting to fracture?
There is nothing solid about Donald Trump’s coalition anymore. Even older white male MAGA voters are peeling off.
MIKE:
There is nothing solid about Donald Trump’s coalition anymore. Even older white mal…