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Sometimes I’m reminded why it’s useful to report from outside Washington.
This week I joined a panel discussion about the war and said something that apparently required courage: The White House hasn’t made a convincing case for it. Polls reflect that. And when the public lacks confidence in the war, a political problem becomes a strategic one — wars need constituencies too.
I have some insight into this because I’m in an ongoing dialogue with my audience here on Substack and on Instagram. When I report on the war and ask you for questions — about the blockade, the Strait, Kharg Island, the ceasefire — the number one response I get is some version of: “Why are we at war with Iran? I still don’t understand.”
Which is telling.
Also telling: the response from one DC reporter on the panel, who explained to me — patiently, as one does — that the President had, in fact, made the case for the war. In an Oval Office address. One speech. Thanks, guy.
I covered the Bush White House and its war in Iraq for three and a half years, during which I heard “we will fight them there so we do not have to face them here at home” roughly ten times a day, every day. That’s not messaging — that’s weather. It gets inside you. One Oval Office address is not that.
In Washington, the feedback loop runs from officials to think tanks to sources to reporters and back again. The same ideas travel in circles. Getting to hear from real people outside that world is a corrective — not just because their questions deserve answers, but because their confusion is often the clearest signal of what hasn’t been explained, addressed, or reported yet.
In today’s newsletter: Iran talks are back — Witkoff, Kushner, but no JD Vance. Iran’s supreme leader is alive, injured, and ruling by handwritten note. A US soldier bet classified intelligence on Polymarket and got nearly half a million. The FDA is fast-tracking psychedelics; some could be available this year. Trump is attending the Correspondents’ Dinner, and he has things to say. And the 988 hotline is working better than anyone expected.
Come Again: Peace talks are back on, at least for now. The White House announced that real estate developer and special envoy Steve Witkoff and fund manager and first son-in-law Jared Kushner areset to return to Pakistan on Saturdayas US negotiators. They’ll meet Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, whoarrived in Islamabad todayand is expected to present a new response to the Trump administration’s proposed deal. Trumpon Friday said Iran is“making an offer and we’ll have to see.” Conspicuously absent, VP JD Vance. The White Housesays he’ll remain in the US“on standby.”Timeline: Trump on Thursdayclaimed he has“all the time in the World” to end the war with Iran, describing himself as “possibly the least pressured person ever.” “Don’t rush me,”▶he told reporters. “We were in Vietnam, like, for 18 years.… I’ve been doing this for six weeks.”Who’s In Charge: Trumpargued the delays to negotiationswere because the US doesn’t know “who the leader is in Iran.” That’s technically Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen sinceUS airstrikes killed most of his family, including his predecessor and father, at the start of the war. TheNew York Timesis out with new reporting on Khamenei’s condition. According to six senior Iranian officials, he was “gravely wounded” in the strikes — his face and lips so burned he has difficulty speaking; one leg operated on three times with a prosthetic pending; one hand badly injured and slowly regaining function. Despite this, he is described as “mentally sharp and engaged.” He’s in hiding to avoid appearing weak and evade potential attacks, issuing instructions via handwritten messages. He is also, reportedly, heavily reliant on a group of military generals, whom one senior official said “collectively make all the decisions.”
Watertight: The Trump administration says the blockade is working. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saysit has forced 34 merchant vesselsto turn back and callsit absolute. Trumpthis week claimedIran was “collapsing financially” as a result. The data tells a different story. Dozens of Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels carrying millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil haveevaded the blockade, according tocargo-tracking firm Vortexa. Multipleship-tracking organizationssimilarlyreportwhatone analyst calleda “steady flow of shadow fleet traffic in and out” of the Persian Gulf. The Treasury Departmentannounced sweeping new sanctionson shipping firms, vessels, and a Chinese refinery allegedly connected to Iran’s shadow oil network. The US on Thursdayseized a second sanctioned oil tankertransporting oil from Iran, chasing it downin the Indian Ocean.**Backlog:**Iran also hadup to 130 million barrels of oilalready out at sea before the blockade began. Overland transport routes arefar more limited– but go unaffected and are estimated togenerate over $1 billionannually.
That’s a Relief: Trumpon Thursday saidhe “wouldn’t use” a nuclear weapon against Iran. He said that “a nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody.”Make It Make Sense: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held a press conference on the war, Friday. Heclaimed victory. He said the US has “all the time in the world” to achieve it. He insisted the war will not be endless. Hewants the US military“to bring maximum violence to the enemy.” He believes it should be “the one institution that should win the Nobel Peace Prize.” He alsocalled the wara “gift to the world” and took questions, including from TMZ. The contradictions did not resolve themselves.Fragile: Trump on Fridayannounced a three-week extensionto the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Hours after the announcement, Israelconducted airstrikesthere, which it claims were in response to Hezbollah attacks. Hezbollahsaid it“rejects” the ceasefire extension, which itclaimed does not have“any meaning” due to ongoing Israeli attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuon Friday said Israel will strike“any threat” in Lebanon. An Israeli airstrike in Lebanon on Wednesday killedjournalist Amal Khaliland injured another. Local officials claim the two reporters weretargeted in a double-tap strikeas they sought shelter, and accuse the IDF of also targeting teams trying to provide aid. The IDFdenies this and arguesit targeted a “military structure used by Hezbollah” and two vehicles that departed the structure.Alphas Only: Trump on Thursdaysaid he firedformer Navy Secretary John Phelan (in the middle of a war and naval blockade) because of conflicts surrounding “building and buying new ships.” The president reportedlylost patience with Phelan’s inabilityto manage the production of the “Golden Fleet,” anew class of battleshipsTrump wants done by 2028 — a timeline many experts consider practically impossible. Phelan, a billionaire who fundraised for Trump’s reelection and did not serve in the military, also reportedlyclashed with Hegseth. He now joins the list ofover 30 senior military officials purgedby Hegseth. His successor, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao, is arefugee from Vietnam who served in the military. During a failed Senate run, hewarned about the dangers of witchcraftandsaid the Navy should recruit“alpha males and alpha females who are going to rip out their own guts, eat them, and ask for seconds.”
Don’t Bet On It: The DOJ on Thursdayarrested and charged a US soldierwith using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, a major online prediction market. ProsecutorsclaimGannon Ken Van Dyke placed over a dozen bets totaling about $33,000 on US military operations against Nicolás Maduro, operationshe helped plan. He made almost $410,000. It’s the first arrest for insider trading on Polymarket in the US. Trumpsaid that if Van Dyke had“bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team.” That’s one way to think about using classified military intelligence for personal gain. The timing is awkward for an industry trying to avoid regulation. Polymarket and Kalshi, another major prediction market, arelobbyinghardtofend offincreasedregulation of their platforms, withthe Trump administration’sbacking. Donald Trump Jr is anadvisor to both platforms. Polymarket𝕏calledVan Dyke’s arrest “proof the system works.” Rep. Anna Pauline Luna (R-FL) disagreed,calling it“skewed justice,” arguing it is unfair to target “guys like this” when “crooks in Congress” are “illegally profiting every day.” That’s not all. Someone (or someones) havemade millionsbyplacing winning bets on the platforms just hours or even minutes beforesome of Trump’s most consequential decisions of the past year,including launching strikes on Iran, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and more. The White House recentlywarned staff againstinsider trading. Kalshi on Wednesdaysuspended and fined three congressional candidatesfor wagering on the outcome of their own races. The candidates say they bet $100 or less.**Part of the Culture:**Prediction markets have quickly become part of the political conversation. In my own conversations, political strategists and reporters bring up prediction markets consistently – citing them as a gauge of sentiment around candidates and positions. They’reessentially unregulated gambling siteswhere participants can wager on the outcome of basically any event. Current bets on Polymarket include: US and Iran reach a permanent peace by June 30 (56%) or May 31 (38%). Which company has the best AI model by the end of April – Anthropic (88%) OpenAI (11%). Kalshi is based in New York and is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket is[based in Panama](https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-kalshi-prediction-market-key-differences-regulation-trading-crypto-2026-3#:~:text=Kalsh…
