“If you’re going to open Pandora’s Box, make sure to stand behind the lid when you do so.” – Wayne Chambliss
Coming up this week: inflation, politics and geopolitics
Clipping stablecoin reach
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links and more.
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Crypto buybacks are having a moment. But the headline numbers can be misleading. $638M has been spent on buybacks YTD, yet HYPE and PUMP buybacks currently represent <2.5% of trading volume. At that scale, the buybacks matter more for reducing supply than for supporting prices.
*See more: *Crypto Buybacks Are 2.5% of Trading Volume, Too Small to Drive Prices
And get weekly onchain data and more analysis like this from the Allium Research team on Substack.
Hello everyone! With the US Labor Day behind us, we can now – sadly – close the chapter of summer. On cue, temperatures outside my window are cooling (mercifully). Watermelon is still available in the supermarket but I expect not for much longer. Plums are already taking up more display space in the fruit section. And there’s a back-to-school buzz in the air.
Tomorrow** **(Wednesday), we get China’s inflation rate, expected to accelerate slightly to 0.8% annualized. That’s… not a lot.
And the first-ever Republican midterm convention kicks off in Dallas. President Trump will address attendees on both nights, although reports suggest turnout will be low.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike – this would be its second in three months and could set a tightening tone for the US Fed and Bank of Japan rate-setting meetings next week.
Also on Thursday, we get the August US Producer Price Index (PPI), a gauge of wholesale inflation – this is expected to show a notable acceleration, both for the headline figure (5.3% vs 4.7% year-on-year) and the core index, ex-food and energy (4.6% vs 4.2%). Even coming in line with consensus forecasts should be enough to rattle inflation watchers.
On Friday, the US CPI report for August could calm some of that rattling… or not. Estimates suggest that the headline index year-on-year increase will hold steady at 3.4%, while the core index increase decelerates slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%. That would be good news, and could give the FOMC pause in voting for a hike at next week’s meeting.
Also on Friday, we get the preliminary consumer sentiment report for September from the University of Michigan.
On Saturday, the two-day BRICS 2026 Summit kicks off in New Delhi, bringing together leaders of both member and invited countries to discuss global issues. China’s President Xi Jinping will attend, his first visit to India in six years. Also expected are Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the heads of state of South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Belarus, Kazakhstan and others. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will not attend due to upcoming elections. And the UAE will be represented by the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi rather than the President, possibly to avoid a punch-up with the Iranian delegation. On the agenda is BRICS Pay, an alternative cross-border payments system that will enable settlement of bilateral trade in local currencies. An intriguing idea, but it’s hard to imagine such a disparate group executing on something like this, especially as it continues to expand.
While powering through the substantial stack of crypto-relevant papers that were published in August, I came across one with pedigree and likely influence that makes some alarming recommendations.
Last month, the Aspen Economic Strategy Group published a paper called “Stablecoins After GENIUS: Private Money, Public Debt, and the Global Dollar”, authored by Nellie Liang and Brent Neiman. The provenance of the paper is significant, I’ll explain why further down.
First, though, I’ll outline what the paper says. As the title implies, it tackles the state of stablecoin policy, with a view to influencing the ongoing rule-setting from the various regulatory agencies. For that reason, its suggestions are worth paying attention to.
