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Every election cycle, Democrats convince themselves this could be the year Texas turns blue. And every cycle, they get their hearts broken. Could this time be different?
With competitive races for Senate and governor, the question is whether Democratic enthusiasm can translate into enough votes — and whether Republicans disappointed with their own candidates will actually cross over.
Gromer Jeffers Jr., who has covered Texas politics for decades for The Dallas Morning News, joined me to explain what to watch as results arrive. We discuss James Talarico’s path to defeating Ken Paxton, whether voters are ticket splitting with Gov. Greg Abbott, and what turnout among Latino and younger voters could tell us.
We also look at whether Republicans’ redistricting gamble could backfire — and what Democrats would need to do to turn a breakthrough tonight into lasting support. As Gromer explains, winning an election would give them something they’ve long lacked in Texas: a statewide platform to show voters what they can deliver.
Watch our conversation at the top of this newsletter.
Jessica:
Some of tonight’s most closely watched races are in Texas, where Democrats hope to flip a U.S. Senate seat and unseat Republican Governor Greg Abbott. I always say every election cycle that Democrats get their hearts broken in Texas. They always think they’re going to win this one, and it just doesn’t happen. But could this year be different? Joining me to discuss this is Jeffers, political writer for The Dallas Morning News, who has been covering Texas politics for decades.
Thank you for being with me on a very, very, very, very busy day for you. I’d love to ask you just at this moment — what are you watching and waiting for?
Gromer:
Well, it’s that nervous time, you know, before the results come in. We’re just waiting for a couple of hours to go by once the polls close. The secretary of state releases the early voting data and all the counties as well. From that data, you can see kind of where the race is headed.
It’s the best poll you can have because these are real voters. So you’ll see, for instance, who’s leading. And since there were 7.7 million people who voted early, a midterm election record, it would be a good indicator of whether Democrats have a chance to make history, or if it’s the same old, same old.
Now, if it’s really close, that brings into question all kinds of issues, such as what does the Election Day vote mean, right? Republicans usually vote on Election Day more than Democrats do. So all of that comes into play. But we’re just waiting for that first early vote drop that happens right after the polls close, which is 7pm central 5pm Pacific and 8pm eastern.
Jessica:
I’ve spoken with a few smart analysts who are looking at just the overall turnout in Texas and that dynamics, and they think James Talarico will win for the Senate tonight for them to be right. Can you give us a picture of who needs to turn out for him, and what has to happen to the Trump coalition in Texas?
Gromer:
Well, what he needs is a big turnout from the urban areas — Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio. And then he needs to carry some of the close-in suburbs around those cities, like Collin County, which is just north of Dallas. A Republican has won that county, like, forever. It’s been like, since the 1970s since the Democrat won there.
So Talarico would have to win there and win in Tarrant County, which is the largest county in the United States under Republican control. It’s really funny. It used to be Orange County in California. Not anymore. Now it’s Texas. So he has to do well in those close-in suburbs.
This race against Paxton involves — how many disaffected, disgruntled Republicans can Talarico get to either stay home or vote for him. That’s key. Because there are more Republicans in the electorate than Democrats. And if they all stay home, if they all say: You know what? We may not like Paxton, but we can’t vote for a Democrat. Then Talarico can’t win. But the strategy is to get some crossover voters, get most of the independents, and then add a strong Democratic turnout to win.
So he needs those persuadable Republicans. And then we’re seeing early voting data based on what we know by matching voters, that younger voters are voting. Latino vote is high. And that can be unusual in Texas because Democrats have relied on Hispanic voters for decades to help them flip Texas, but it hasn’t happened.
As a matter of fact, Trump has done better over the last few cycles with Hispanic voters, with Latinos. And that’s been a problem for Democrats. Well, in this election, they hope that Talarico — and there’s evidence that Talarico has got a lot of Latino voters on his side, including some who voted for Trump in 2024. And there are all kinds of issues around that. You know, immigration enforcement, that it went too far, that they thought it would be about rounding up criminals, not going to Lowe’s or Home Depot and having raids there.
All other kinds of factors are involved. Trump’s unpopularity, but also getting back to that Democratic coalition that helped Obama, for instance, when he won in 2008, which was younger voters.
Jessica:
You brought up a lot there. I heard what you said that for Talarico to win he needs the whole coalition. And then he needs some Republicans to stay home and some willing to cross over. We’ve seen this very unusual thing where a bunch of Republicans publicly said that they will be voting for Talarico in Texas. I can’t remember seeing something like that before.
Are you seeing evidence that Republicans, at least some, are willing to cross over? And if so, is it about Paxton’s liabilities or how much of it is about Trump?
Gromer:
It’s both. The biggest part is Paxton’s liabilities. That’s part of it. But there are some Trump Republicans that accept that maybe he hasn’t kept some promises and done a bad job, that the gas prices are high, but they’re still going to support Trump.
The key for Talarico is to get those voters who would never vote Democrat. Maybe he won’t get all of them, but at least get some of them to recognize that Paxton is a problem, and vote for him or stay home. There are some Republicans who speak at rallies and they say, hey, I understand that actually voting for our Democrat may be a bridge too far for you. All right, well, skip that race, then. Just stay home. We have evidence that there are Republicans who will do that. I’ve talked to Republicans at Talarico rallies. There’s such a thing as a Talarico / Greg Abbott voter. They hate Ken Paxton.
Jessica:
That brings me to the governor’s race. There’s a Democrat. Gina Hinojosa is doing surprisingly well for a Democrat in Texas against Greg Abbott. I know that Democrats are really excited about the early vote numbers. They think it seems really promising for her. But do you think you’re seeing signs that she’s getting the support she needs or what has to happen today for her to actually win?
Gromer:
It has to be a blue wave — a real one. You know, there’s talk about a blue wave, but you know how category five hurricanes, sometimes when they hit land, they peter out and become a tropical storm. Well, that category five hurricane, when it hits Texas, it has to keep up momentum and still be a full force hurricane in order to get Gina Hinojosa over the finish line and into the victory column.
If it’s not, then Abbott probably will find a way to get close, because unlike Paxton, there aren’t a lot of — there are some Republicans who may feel like, look, you guys have embraced Trump. You’ve been in power for so long, it’s time for a change. But there are less of those voters out there than, say, anti-Paxton voters.
Jessica:
So they really hate him.
Gromer:
They’re a large segment of people. He’s a candidate with all these liabilities. What’s interesting is he’s run statewide before. But those were low-profile attorney general races. This is the first race where he’s had a national profile. And, I mean, that guy cannot campaign. I’ve never seen anything quite like that. The contrast is striking.
Having said that, there’s one thing for a Republican to tell me at a rally or to announce that they’re not going to do it — but you know how it all happens. I mean, you get into the voters booth, you see R and D, and I don’t know, I can’t do it. I can’t do it.
Jessica:
I’m curious. Have there been reports of ICE at the polls or any major problems with voter intimidation around the state so far?
Gromer:
Not in a major way so far. You know, there’s still a couple of hours, but so far it’s been relatively smooth. But we’ll see. I mean, a lot of times there’s these things percolate after folks get off work and start voting and the lines get stronger, you know?
Jessica:
When we were talking before we started live, you were saying you never know when some one voting place has an irregularity, and then they have to keep it open — and then it’s hours and hours we’re waiting for returns. So we have to keep in mind it ain’t over till it’s over.
I’m curious. The early exit polls painted a picture of a very angry national electorate. They show that about three quarters of voters are dissatisfied or angry with the direction of the country. Economic pessimism is up, and Trump’s own approval is the lowest of any president recorded in exit polls. How much of that broad anger are you seeing in Texas? And are you getting a sense that it’s depressing Republicans who are considering their vote as well?
Gromer:
That’s why these races are so close. We mentioned Paxton. But that doesn’t account for the governor’s race being close or the lieutenant governor’s race or the attorney general’s race, or all the other races, the legislative races, the state house races — they’re close, too. Democrats could gain seats in the Texas legislature later and make it close there in the House and in the Senate. I don’t think that they’ll flip them, but they will close the gap, if tonight goes the way they think it could go. That suggests that there’s this dissatisfaction.
Let me say one thing. Typically in Texas, Texas has its own brand. If the brand is separate from the national brand, that has allowed Republicans, when times get tough with the president — like in 2018, Beto O’Rourke had that close race with Ted Cruz for Senate, Trump’s last midterm election year. Usually in Texas, they have their own brand. The Republicans can say, okay, that’s the national stuff that’s going on. Everything is fine in Texas. But now with the affordability issues in Texas — and it’s not just high gas prices, it’s the high cost of homeowners insurance, the high cost of auto insurance. All of that is hitting Texas just like everywhere else.
This isn’t like you can’t say there are indicators to say that the economy is doing well. The stock market, the unemployment rate, and all of that. But every week, if you go to the gas station and you’re driving a big Texas SUV guzzler, whatever it costs to fill up for you and your wife’s big guzzler — you’re going to feel that. Not to mention the ranchers and the cattle industry, oil and gas industry, all of that, the tariffs.
Texas Republicans wrapped themselves around Trump. Now they can’t extricate themselves.
Abbott skipped a couple of the Trump rallies. He went to the midterm convention in September. But when Trump came back, he didn’t go to the rallies.
Jessica:
And they’ve been bonded.
Gromer:
Remember redistricting.
Jessica:
Oh, and some of those districts that they gerrymandered might have been dummymanders. Could they lose any of them?
Gromer:
I think that the Republicans will get two. But the districts in South Texas where they were hoping that because Trump did so well with Latino voters, that they would just vote for Republicans, they might lose all three of those.
And with California doing redistricting, it’ll be a net loss, potentially, of three, just with those two states. And that energized Democrats.
Jessica:
So let’s just say the Democrats win the Senate; they may or may not win the governors, but it at least comes close; they pick up some seats in the legislature. We could see that as Texas beginning to undergo a lasting political shift. Or it could simply be voters rejecting Trump and these particular Republican candidates. What do think Democrats would have to do to build on a victory tonight to make it a lasting political shift in Texas?
Gromer:
Well, let’s say that Talarico wins. If he does win, he’s created a path: Do well in the urban areas, do well in the suburbs, win back Latino voters, find a way to get young, new, and infrequent voters to the polls. That has always been the path for Democrats, but they’ve been unable to execute it.
The other good thing about Talarico, if he wins, is that he’s in there for six years. The problems, the problem Democrats have had: they don’t have any statewide elected officials. Here’s the problem with that. A statewide elected official can build a statewide organization. Imagine a senator with offices all across Texas, jobs to give out, money to bring back. You can go to rural Texas and say, I got you this VA hospital, or I did this, I did that. You’re interacting with voters from a position of power. The voters begin to realize, you know what? It’s not so bad electing the Democrat. We have a senator here. So you build off that.
Let’s say Talarico loses. It will be demoralizing. Very demoralizing. The narrative will be: Wow. If Texas Democrats can’t win in this environment, they can never win. But you have to shake that off, because these races, I suspect, will still be close. And so you just follow that path and take advantage of that and keep building.
But that would be hard to do if there’s a disappointment tonight. But you got to look at it as incremental steps — because, remember, they were demoralized in 2024. They got back up, dusted themselves off. And now they’re on the verge of winning. So you just got to keep building
Jessica:
Well I know that you have a very long night ahead of you. So I am so grateful to you for taking the time and helping us make sense of Texas politics. Thanks for your time.
Gromer:
This has been fantastic. Don’t be a stranger.
Jessica:
Let’s talk about it again. Let’s see what happens after tonight. We can discuss the implications.
Gromer:
I would love to. Happy election night.
Jessica:
Everybody, you can catch him every Sunday on NBC Five’s Lone Star Politics there and in The Dallas Morning News.
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