Iran’s strategy in this war was never complicated. The mullahs believed that if they choked the Strait of Hormuz long enough, Americans would feel it at the gas pump and Washington would lose its nerve before the midterms. Brent crude spiked past $107 a barrel this month, and Iranian-aligned militias sent drones into Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and shut it down for more than a week. Tehran was betting that pain at the pump would break us before its own economy broke.
That bet has failed, and President Trump deserves immense credit for it.
Crude exports from the Persian Gulf are back at pre-war levels. J.P. Morgan puts the 10-day average at 17.5 million barrels a day, which is 98 percent of where it stood before the war. Goldman Sachs estimates the region exported 19 million barrels a day over the past week. Brent has come off its highs to about $103, and West Texas crude is trading around $90.
The Gulf producers did it by building 3 exits where there used to be 1. Before the war, 83 percent of Gulf crude had to cross the Strait of Hormuz. In September, about 60 percent crossed the strait, 23 percent loaded on the Gulf of Oman coast, and 17 percent left through the Red Sea. Much of that Red Sea oil moved through the same Saudi pipeline Iran’s allies tried to destroy. Iran thought it held a chokehold on the world economy, and the Gulf simply routed around it.
Iran is now the one country in the region whose oil is not moving. Before the war, it exported roughly 1.7 million barrels a day. In September, satellite data showed no Iranian crude leaving by sea at all. That is the work of the American naval blockade reimposed in July.
Last week at the United Nations, Iran offered to reopen the strait within 7 days. Its price was the release of frozen funds, an end to sanctions, and an end to the blockade. The President said no. A regime that was winning would not be begging for its money back in front of the General Assembly. A government that cannot sell its oil cannot pay those who preserve its power.
The Obama administration sent pallets of cash to Tehran. The Biden administration looked the other way while Iranian oil flowed to China. This administration has paired American naval power with the reach of the American banking system. It has blockaded Iranian ports while making it dangerous for any bank anywhere to move money for the Revolutionary Guard.
Something more remarkable is happening alongside the oil. Our Arab allies are cooperating with Israel in ways they never have before. The Abraham Accords proved in President Trump’s first term that Arab governments could work openly with the Jewish state, and this war has turned that diplomatic normalization into practical cooperation. Iran has fired on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. Those governments now understand that the threat to their people comes from Tehran, not Jerusalem.
Inside Iran, the regime is losing its grip. Outbreaks of violence suggest a destabilization campaign that the security services cannot contain. This regime has waged a 47-year war on Americans, plotted to shoot down Air Force One, and gunned down its own people in the streets in January. Is enforcers are now the ones who are afraid.
None of this means the war is won. I was hard on the administration this summer when it called off strikes on the promise that Iran wanted peace. Iran did not want peace then, and it does not want peace now. It wants a bomb. The Houthis are stepping up attacks in the Red Sea, and exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel from the region are still running below last year’s pace. The pressure has to continue, and this White House should resist the voices internally who think a regime that chants “Death to America” can be bargained with.
Notwithstanding all of that, the situation has changed. Our allies are working together, Gulf oil is flowing at pre-war levels, and Iran is broke, isolated, and asking for relief in front of the world. That happened because the President was willing to use every tool of American power at once and refused to accept that the Strait of Hormuz belonged to Tehran.
A month ago, Iran thought it could hold the world hostage at the gas pump. Today the Gulf’s oil is moving and Iran’s is not. President Trump deserves the credit for that.
