Robert Rubin says: markets today are not pricing in the risks of a stolen midterm—yet Trump has said over and over again that if he loses it will because the Democrats cheated, and not because he, Trump, is historically unpopular. Business leaders think election subversion is a remote risk. Rubin thinks they’re wrong:
Far too many plutocrat billionaires and gentry multimillionaires think Trump and his coterie of fellow kleptocrats are, when the chips are down, their friends. They are wrong to think so:
<https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/opinion/trump-midterms-election-threats-ice-economy.html> <https://www.nytimes.com>
The economy has been voters’ top issue in four of the six midterm elections this century — and 2026 appears all but certain to make it five of seven. Beyond the cost of living, the war in Iran and tariffs, America faces a series of daunting longer-term economic challenges, from mounting federal debt to the effects of artificial intelligence.
Yet many Americans continue to underestimate one particular potential threat to our economic future: President Trump’s clearly expressed desire to interfere with and even usurp the midterm elections. Nov. 3 could be a defining test for the rule of law in this country, and both our democracy and our prosperity are on the line.
There is a chance — some would argue a likelihood — that the midterms will proceed smoothly and honestly, with the winners seated in a straightforward manner. There is also the possibility that the election will be, like so much else over the past two years, chaotic at best and lawless at worst. From amplifying false claims of fraud and slashing defenses against foreign meddling in our elections to attempting to bully states into using an error-prone database to purge voter registrations, the Trump administration has already thrown up obstacles to fair and free midterm elections. There are widespread fears Mr. Trump and his allies could go further, including by sending armed federal agents to polling locations, seizing ballot boxes and exploiting a procedural loophole involving the clerk of the House that could enable them to refuse to seat duly elected Democratic members when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.
If the Trump administration launches an effort to manipulate the outcome of the midterms, the economic impact could be felt immediately, and it could last long after Mr. Trump’s presidency ends.
With the exception of the booming A.I. sector, corporate investment is already weak. The National Federation of Independent Business’s measurement of small-business uncertainty is 32 percent above its historical average. This seems like a bad time to inject substantially more instability into the mix.
The short-term risks from election interference look even more concerning when we consider the possibility that a fight over the outcomes will not necessarily remain contained to the courtroom. Mr. Trump has explicitly refused to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act in regard to the 2026 elections. Starting in late 2025, a surge of immigration enforcement agents into Minneapolis cost the city, its businesses and its residents an estimated $700 million. Sustained post-election chaos coupled with aggressive federal interference could create similar disruptions on a nationwide scale.
Any effort to undermine the election will eventually resolve itself, whether through political compromise, contentious rulings from courts, the use of force or all three. But the economic impact will outlast any immediate political crisis. The rule of law, undergirded by a tradition of free elections and the peaceful transfer of power, supports business decisions and attracts foreign companies to invest. It underlies the position of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It bolsters investors’ confidence in the full faith and credit of the United States and lowers interest rates on our debt. The integrity of our elections, in other words, has been one of the keys to American prosperity.
The United States has not yet seen its economy suffer from a lack of confidence in its legal system. Other countries have. “We can live with high inflation,” one Turkish executive told The Financial Times last year, “but our biggest disincentive to invest is the lack of the rule of law.” A 2024 State Department report similarly identified rule-of-law issues — including lack of respect for property rights, repression of criticism and arbitrary investigations and arrests — as major impediments to the business climate in China.
The United States does not have to become Turkey or China to feel the economic impacts of a diminished rule of law. The economist John Maynard Keynes famously wrote of the “animal spirits” that encourage people to engage in market activity. Americans’ animal spirits have long been bolstered by the knowledge that their country is the best place on earth to start or invest in a business. A contested or overturned election could call that into question.
When I talk to leaders in business and politics, even many of those who acknowledge the election threat seem to consider such a possibility remote. They do not tend to take Mr. Trump’s attacks on voting seriously. That’s another way of saying that the markets are not pricing in what I consider a meaningful risk.
If Mr. Trump accomplishes in 2026 what he was unable to with respect to the 2020 election, or even if he causes widespread chaos by coming closer to his objective, it could create serious disruptions in the bond and equity markets. The yield on 10-year Treasuries recently reached 5.36 percent — higher than it was in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis — in part because of concerns about the country’s policy trajectory. Election chaos could increase investors’ worry about the ability of our political system to deal with our fiscal problems, driving yields even higher. This would result in higher debt service costs for the government and higher mortgage rates and credit card bills for consumers, exacerbating our already considerable challenges.
I’ve lived my entire life as a citizen of a constitutional republic that provides rights and protections, and I’d like to continue doing so. I imagine most Americans, regardless of their political leanings, feel the same way.
Over the next few weeks, leaders in business and in all sectors of our society should work with state and local elected officials to help protect the political process that lies at the heart of our constitutional system. They can do this by making clear, nonpartisan declarations of support for election integrity, by supporting nonpartisan organizations that protect our elections and by using behind-the-scenes influence to discourage those who might be considering any steps to disrupt or overturn the midterms.
In more than six decades spent in and around economic policymaking, I never imagined having to write a piece such as this. If we act now, we can still protect our government, our people and our economy — and we can preserve the benefits that accrue to all of us, no matter whom we vote for, when American elections are fair and free.
Mr. Rubin is a senior counselor to Centerview Partners and was the U.S. Treasury secretary from 1995 to 1999.
<https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/opinion/trump-midterms-election-threats-ice-economy.html> <https://www.nytimes.com>
- Brad DeLong here*: A contested or overturned election would hit America’s “animal spirits” and investment, productivity growth, Treasury yields, and the dollar permanently. Its consequences would echo long after the political crisis ends. Even those who care only about their money, and not about, you know, democracy should be working like dogs right now to draw the fangs of Trump and the Trumpists. And they are not. Steve Schwarzman, for example, is right now funding and running attack ads against Democrats for… investing in and with Steve Schwarzman.
As Bob says: even if you are confident enough in your personal links to TrumpWorld that you do not fear being sent to some Guantanamo GULAG or stripped of your assets on some transparently false pretext, free elections and the peaceful transfer of power * are* very valuable economic infrastructure. As Bob says: Trump and the Trumpists have already amplified false fraud claims, cut defenses against foreign meddling, pushed states toward an error-prone voter-purge database, and made a bright line of refusing to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act.
I say: Trump has already tried to overthrow the government of the United States once. Even if you are confident that a second attempt will also be defeated, it will accelerate the decoupling of global investment and trade from the United States. The long-run economic damage will be large.
As Bob says: investment outside of AI is already weak, and so is productivity growth. I say: The sustainability of the U.S. fiscal position requires the arithmetic inequality that Treasury yields be below the nominal growth rate of GDP. The cutoff of immigration and weak investment outside AI means that that arithmetic inequality would fall with another confidence shock to the US. It then would rely on AI paying off BigTime in significantly faster measured GDP growth. And there are few signs right now that AI will pay off BigTime in measured GDP growth. Protect current platform-monopoly profits, yes. Change how we live and think profoundly for good or ill, yes. Build a Digital God, no—although many involved in it think that that is what they are doing. Pay off BigTime in boosting measured GDP growth? As I read it, very unlikely.
##neofascism
##chaos-monkey-trump
##crosspost
#robert-rubin-in-six-decades-of-public-life-i-never-thought-i-would-write-this-piece
#robert-rubin
#in-six-decades-of-public-life-i-never-thought-i-would-write-this-piece
#rule-of-law
#midterm-elections
#election-integrity
#election-subversion
#democracy
#political-economy
#sovereign-risk
#investment-uncertainty
#peaceful-transfer-power
#institutions-matter
#donald-trump
