0:10
Why Claude Changed The AI Risk Equation #168b
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This week the cost and control of frontier capability stopped being a technical question and became a governance one, on three fronts at once. Here is the full picture, the decision logic, and the plan.
The one sentence thesis.
0:38
Not so Micro Losses 🎧 #696 (Jun 24)
Check out the negative divergence on Semi Conductors. Price higher highs. MACD lower lows
Same thing with
How is SpaceX doing?
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Daily Stock Markets covered in under 15 min. No ads.
1:04
Inside the Trump-Senate meltdown
Four Republican senators voted for the war‑powers resolution on Iran, and Trump called them out at a lunch with GOP colleagues. He pressed the group to back his SAVE America Act and scrap the filibuster, a request he’s made before.
The conversation quickly turned to Sen. Bill Cassidy, who reminded Trump that the Iran campaign had already stretched from an expected four weeks to four months. Cassidy’s frustration was palpable, and the tone grew heated as Trump urged the senators to move on his agenda.
Ted Cruz described the gathering as spirited, but the room remained divided. No new consensus emerged on the housing bill or the filibuster, so the status quo held firm.
1:52
Trump runs into Republicans who won't bend
President Trump is making life hell for Senate Republicans, and they're returning the favor.
- "I make no apologies for standing up to the president," Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) told reporters after he got into a shouting match with Trump on Wednesday at a Senate GOP lunch. "I made it clear that I wasn't going to be bullied."
Why it matters: Trump's push for a pre-midterm elections crackdown, via the SAVE Act, has opened of the deepest GOP ruptures of his second term.
- To his fury, Trump is finding that senators he's written off, alienated or even helped defeat in primaries are choosing Senate traditions over his political demands.
- In the middle is Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who's been blunt with the reality that Trump doesn't have the votes to get what he wants.
- "I'm certainly not giving my consent to that," Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told reporters Wednesday about ending the filibuster.
Zoom in: Trump's lunch with Senate Republicans only seemed to move White House-Senate relations from bad to worse.
- It became a shouting match with Cassidy over the administration's lack of information-sharing with the Senate on Iran.
- Trump rubbed Cassidy's primary defeat last month in his face during the closed-door meeting, sources told Axios.
Just before the lunch, Trump canceled an event to sign and tout a bipartisan housing package — a bill the White House praised Tuesday as "one of the most significant pieces of housing affordability legislation in American history."
- Trump said he would not sign the bill until the SAVE Act, requiring voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote, is passed.
- Last week, Trump delayed the Senate confirmation process for Jay Clayton, ensuring Bill Pulte would serve as acting director of national intelligence, at least temporarily.
- The president has continued his long campaign against the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass most legislation in the Senate, and the blue slips process, which allows senators to block judicial nominations in their state.
The other side: The bloc of GOP senators willing to defy Trump has grown.
- Cassidy and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) have been far more willing to speak their mind since losing recent primaries to Trump-backed candidates.
- They join Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who are leaving the Senate and have less reason to fear Trump's political blowback.
- That's on top of the usual suspects like Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Murkowski, who have long been willing to vote against their party.
The bottom line: It's a midterm year. Republicans want to talk about affordability and hammer democratic socialists.
- Instead, they're sitting through presidential rants about the filibuster and legislation with no clear path through the Senate.
Source:
4:53
Trump asks Congress for $87.6B, mostly for Iran war
The Trump administration asked Congress on Wednesday for $87.6 billion in supplemental funding, most of it to cover costs related to the Iran war.
Why it matters: The request is likely to intensify debate over presidential war powers as lawmakers in both parties question whether Congress should have authorized military action against Iran.
By the numbers: $67 billion of the request would go to the Defense Department, including $21 billion for munitions, $17.3 billion for operational costs and $12.1 billion for classified programs, according to the letter.
- $11.1 billion would go to farmers, and $1.4 billion would fund the response to the Ebola outbreak in Central Africa.
What they're saying: "Most of this request will address urgent needs" related to the Iran war, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought said in the letter, addressed to House Speaker Mike Johnson.
- "I urge the Congress to take action on these important and urgent requests as soon as possible," he added. "The Administration is also open to discussing additional relief for other urgent matters."
Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement that she would "closely review" the request and "ensure we take care of our servicemembers" but added: "I will not rubber stamp tens of billions more for this disastrous war of choice."
State of play: The funding request came a day after the Senate passed a largely symbolic war powers resolution seeking to limit further military action against Iran without congressional approval.
- Four Republican senators joined Democrats in supporting the measure.
What's next: House and Senate appropriators will decide whether to advance the emergency request as submitted or reshape it during negotiations.
6:52
House Democrats brace for a Mamdani-fueled "Freedom Caucus of the left" in 2027
About 20‑plus Democratic Socialists could sit in the House after the primaries, roughly doubling the current squad of ten. That surge comes from fresh wins in New York, Pennsylvania and a handful of other states, adding names like Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Chris Rabb to the progressive roster.
Party leaders are already bracing for a louder left‑leaning bloc, fearing the same friction the GOP felt with its Freedom Caucus when margins are thin. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar says the strategy will be to keep talking, building relationships and nudging the newcomers toward the broader agenda.
If the new members stick together, they could wield enough leverage to shape committee assignments and policy priorities, especially in a closely divided chamber. The establishment’s confidence hinges on whether Jeffries and his allies can pull the group into a cooperative rhythm without turning the floor into a perpetual tug‑of‑war.
8:01
America's child population is shrinking everywhere but the South
Data: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 population estimates; Chart: Russell Contreras/Axios
America's child population fell by 1.8 million from 2020 to 2025 — with the under-18 population shrinking in every region but the South.
Why it matters: Most of America is preparing for fewer students and young families, while the South faces the opposite problem: crowded classrooms, new housing pressure and rising political stakes.
The big picture: The South had 303,969 more children in 2025 than in 2020, according to new Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates reviewed by Axios.
- The West had the largest under-18 decline: down 1,015,068, or 5.7%.
- Overall, the South's total population grew 6% from 2020 to 2025 — nearly double the nation's 3.1% growth.
State of play: The South's overall growth reflects strong migration patterns that are adding children, people in prime family-building years and retirees — making it the only region gaining population across all five age groups tracked by the Census Bureau.
- The numbers deepen a larger post-pandemic trend: America's growth is moving outward, especially across the South.
Between the lines: This is not simply a story of children "moving" South.
- County-level population change reflects births, deaths and migration.
- The data does not, by itself, show how much of the under-18 growth came from families moving in versus children being born or retained in the region.
Zoom in: Southern metro counties more than accounted for the region's child population growth, offsetting losses in micro counties and rural areas, an Axios review found.
- Metro counties in the South added 361,757 residents under 18, a 1.5% increase.
- Meanwhile, Southern micro counties had 18,280 fewer children in 2025, down 0.7% from 2020. Southern counties outside metro and micro areas also had 39,508 fewer children, down 2.2%.
What we're watching: The South's child growth could give Black and Latino families more political and economic clout — but only if booming counties invest equitably in schools, housing, transit and health care.
The bottom line: Nationally, the population is getting older.
- The U.S. median age rose to 39.4 in July 2025, up from 38.6 in April 2020.
- The 65-and-older population grew 16.2% nationally from 2020 to 2025.
- Meanwhile, the under-18 population fell 2.4%.
10:34
2 powerful earthquakes strike Venezuela
Two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday, damaging buildings in the capital, Caracas, and in communities across the country.
The big picture: The U.S. Geological Survey issued a red alert for "shaking-related fatalities and economic losses," warning that "high casualties and extensive damage" were probable after a magnitude 7.2 quake and seconds later a 7.5 tremor struck just over 100 miles west of Caracas.
- The quake epicenter of the first quake was recorded near Morón, a town along Venezuela's Caribbean coast, with a depth of 13.6 miles. The depth of the second quake that also struck near the town was 6.2 miles.
State of play Officials reported extensive damage across Caracas and in several Venezuelan states.
- Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez said on social media officials had declared a State of Emergency and she urged "all citizens to remain alert, safe, and as calm as possible."
What they're saying: U.S. officials have "mobilized a disaster assistance team and task force to deliver and coordinate critical assistance to the Venezuelan people," said Jeremy Lewin, under secretary for foreign assistance at the State Department, on X.
- "Working with our partners in the interim Venezuelan government, the U.S. will be sending search and rescue teams, medical and humanitarian supplies and other resources in the crucial first days after this tragic natural disaster."
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.
12:13
Gold Is Plunging For All The Wrong Reasons
The dollar is ripping, gold and silver are getting smoked, and the market is once again convincing itself that the Fed is somehow going to thread the needle.
The U.S. Dollar Index just pushed to its highest level since May 2025, with the DXY climbing above 101 as traders rush to price in a more hawkish Fed and the possibility of renewed rate hikes.
At the same time, gold has been hit for roughly 2% and silver closer to 5% in the latest move, extending a correction that has now taken both metals sharply off their highs.
12:52
Have Bulls Fumbled The Ball In SPX? June 25th Plan
As readers know, the theme for the past several months has been buy dips. The dips vary in size, speed, duration, structure, but they all resolve the same: They get bought and the recent major dip Wednesday after FOMC did as well (where ES sold 135+ points).
How have they been buying these though? As I frequently discuss all major rallies in ES start on Failed Breakdowns, because Failed Breakdowns are how institutions accumulate. Institutions accumulate when ES flushes hard and goes elevator down - losing, and then recovering a big previously set low. In doing so institutions are able to trap shorts that are chasing, use them as liquidity, then price rips the other way when the low recovers. Usually, this process correlated with an external headline shock as institutions love to use headlines for liquidity to trap shorts (or in rare cases, they/insiders are aware of headlines in advance).
On Monday evening we saw one of those elevator down sells. I wrote on Monday at 4pm: “Bear case tomorrow: Begins below 7509.” ES spent the last week in a tight consolidation mostly between 7530 and 7590 and we broke this shelf down Monday evening and sold, with 7509 being a trigger down.
We then sold hard down to 7416 Tuesday morning. What comes after a big sell? Bulls bought the dip as usual via a Failed breakdown. I wrote Monday at 4pm: “Watch for the Failed Breakdown of 7427 below there.” 7427 was the major June 12th low. We swept it own to 7416 as stated, recovered, and ripped to 7472.
The task for bulls today was to recover the 7530 shelf in order to regain control, with bears controlling below. I wrote yesterday at 4pm: “My general lean is ES can backtest 7530. Bulls must recover it after an initial dip to bottom out.” We began pushing up towards 7530 this morning, but ES only made it to 7490’s before failing to 7409 a little after noon.
This produced another dip buy. I wrote yesterday at 4pm: “Below there, the obvious setup is the Failed Breakdown of today’s daily low which is located at 7415.” We recovered and popped to 7440’s before rejecting into the close today.
Have bulls fumbled the ball? In today’s newsletter I’ll expand on this, I’ll go over today’s Failed Breakdowns (these are key to know), and I’ll discuss the actionable plan for tomorrow.
