** Economics Matters — Blog/Podcast/Financial Riddler/MaxiFi Puzzler**
At War For One Reason — Our Children
A month ago, I wrote a column entitled, “Finally, a President with the Balls to Stand Up to Iran.” The Iran war, which is now over a month long, is proving tougher than hoped. Had prior presidents acted sooner, we’d not be in this mess — with Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz and still firing missiles and drones against our bases, embassies, and allies.
But they didn’t. They sat back and watched a fanatical regime enrich ever greater quantities of uranium to ever higher levels and build ever larger numbers of missiles and drones with ever greater ranges — all while arming Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, not to mention killing thousands in global terrorism attacks.
Glenn read my column and quickly arranged a debate with two prominent opponents of the war — Daniel Bessner and Andrew Day. Daniel is the Anne H.H. and Kenneth B. Pyle Associate Professor in American Foreign Policy at the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies. He is a historian of U.S. foreign relations whose work has appeared in Harper’s Magazine, The New York Times, and other venues. Andrew is the senior editor of The American Conservative. He has a PhD in political science from Northwestern University. You can follow him on X @AKDay89.
Andrew is MAGA, but feels President Trump has betrayed the cause. Daniel is left of center. He feels Netanyahu led Trump by the nose to foster Israel’s hegemonic ambitions.
Being no fan of President Trump, I found myself in the strange position of having to defend him against what I view as naive and contrived attacks from both the right and the left. As I pointed out, these attacks weren’t really against the President, per se. They were actually directed our children, whose protection is our highest priority.
Here is the link to the debate on The Glenn Show:
I’ve held off sending this to you — my now 124K subscribers. I waited to assess how the war was proceeding and determine whether what I said, in my blog and in the debate, made sense in light of what the war revealed.
My blog had 42K views, 69 loves, and 108 comments — many negative. The debate also generated a ton of traffic and comments. One commentator chastised Glenn for having me appear. “(It’s) honestly cruel of Glenn to let Kotlikoff make a fool of himself like that.”
Daniel and Andrew seemed to share this view. They certainly came across as having all the answers. Both suggested Trump was manipulated by Israel and that Iran posed no threat to the US.
I pointed out that Iran was developing long-range ballistic missiles that would, in an estimated decade, be able to hit NY and the rest of our country. Andrew found this risible.
Roughly two weeks after the debate, Iranian missiles traveled 2,500 miles to hit the US-UK naval base, Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean. That attack made clear that every European city is now within missile range of Iran.
President Trump, in my view, had no choice but to go to war with Iran. As we’re seeing, this is a country whose layers of leadership prefer death to living in peace with “The Great Satan.” Dealing with suicidal fanatics is very different from dealing with rational actors. Daniel and Andrew might study the Nazi’s defense of Berlin against the Russian, in which 100,000 German soldiers died to defend Der Führer when their dear führer was obviously a dead duck.
As I write on Sunday night, President Trump just posted, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!”
Is this just Trump hypertxting? Who knows. What we do know, from history, is that major wars aren’t won overnight and come at substantial cost. Our war with Iran is about our long-term security, not this month’s inflation rate. We have many options besides destroying Iran’s power plants and bridges, which likely violates international law.
We have the world’s most powerful military. Time is on our side. We don’t need to invade Iran’s Karg and other islands to control its petrochemical exports. We can use our navy and air force to embargo those and all other Iranian exports. We can, with the use of special forces, recover Iranian stocks of enriched uranium and gradually eliminate Iran’s remaining drones and missiles. We can make clear that no hostile Iranian leader will be free to show his head if he wishes to keep it for more than a day. We can start arming Iranians who want to rid the country of its vile theocracy. Finally, we can make clear that our gunboats are there to stay. This is not one, done, and run. Iran will remain under America’s thumb until it leaders agree that civilization is their’s to have and to hold, not to deny and destroy.
All this will require something that President Trump desperately needs — patience. He also need to stop cursing and start acting like a president — repairing ties with Democrats in Congress and NATO. This war, if it doesn’t end with a quick agreement, may last for many months if not one or two years. Patience, not tweets, is the answer. Yes, the economic fallout and military costs may prove enormous. But that was the case in 1941 as well.