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Today, we examine a declassified C.I.A. intelligence summary from October third, nineteen-fifty, concerning possible Chinese Communist intervention in Korea. This document offers a window into the real-time anxieties and intelligence assessments of U.S. policymakers during the early stages of the Korean War. You can find this document on archive.org, under U.S. Intelligence on China C.I. zero zero five zero one.
This record was declassified under D.D.A. Regulation seventy-seven, with reviews completed by the Department of State. It was approved for release on May twenty-eighth, two thousand three, under C.I.A.-R.D.P. seventy-eight-zero one six one seven A zero zero six one zero zero zero two zero zero seven four-eight.
The document begins: "London transmits a report from the U.K. Foreign Office that Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chou En-lai called in Indian Ambassador Panikkar in Peiping on September third and informed him that if U.N. armed forces crossed the thirty-eighth parallel, China would intervene in the defense of North Korea. Chou En-lai reportedly added that this action would not be taken if only South Korean forces crossed the Parallel.
(C.I.A. Comment: The Chinese Communists have long had the capability for military intervention in Korea on a scale sufficient to materially affect the course of events in Korea, and they now are supporting Soviet efforts to intimidate and divide the U.S. and its U.N. allies over the issue of crossing the thirty-eighth Parallel. C.I.A. estimates, however, that the Chinese Communists would not consider it in their interests to intervene openly in Korea if, as now seems likely, they anticipate that war with the U.N. nations would result. The 'reliability and accuracy' of the source of this report are open to question. It is also entirely possible that Panikkar is being used by the Chinese Communists to plant this information in an effort to influence U.S. and U.K. policy.)"
The document continues, touching on other global intelligence:
"Germany: Schumacher's views on defense role - U.S. High Commissioner McCloy in Bonn has been informed by West German Socialist leader Schumacher that he believes the Germans would consider sharing in the defense of their country only after being firmly convinced by a sizeable increase in U.S. forces in Germany that there is a real chance to defend West Germany 'as far east as possible.' (The cooperation of the Socialist Party will be essential to West German participation in any West European defense system.) Schumacher visualizes German participation in the form of a mobile force for which he thinks the Germans are traditionally and psychologically best equipped. In regard to the projected West German police force, Schumacher felt it was of the 'utmost importance' for the police to be strictly separated from the military. After a discussion of the police proposal with McCloy, Schumacher expressed the opinion that the police plan was 'workable.'
Yugoslavia: Tito-Kremlin relations unchanged - U.S. Ambassador Allen in Belgrade reports that although there are indications the U.S.S.R. is adopting a 'milder tone' in various countries, he has seen no evidence of any shift in the Soviet attitude toward Tito. The Ambassador doubts that the rumored 'secret meetings' between Yugoslav and Soviet representatives have taken place. Allen concludes that although Marxists both in and out of the Cominform might like to be reunited, he does not believe Tito or any responsible member of his regime would either take the initiative toward a rapprochement or listen to any overtures from Moscow with anything but the greatest of skepticism. (C.I.A. Comment: C.I.A. concurs with Ambassador Allen's estimate.)
Near East-Africa: Afghans penetrate Pakistani territory - U.S. Embassy Karachi has been told by the Pakistani Foreign Secretary that five hundred Afghan tribesmen and army regulars penetrated Pakistani Balochistan near Domandai, Balochistan, during the night of September thirtieth to October first. The Embassy reports that the Pakistani military commander in that area has orders to expel the invaders but not to pursue them across the Afghan border, and that Pakistani air reconnaissance is on the lookout for other troop concentrations or movements. (C.I.A. Comment: This incident is indicative of the strained relations existing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, largely as a result of Afghan provocation. Pakistan should have little difficulty in expelling the invaders and no serious trouble is likely to arise from this incident.)
Far East: Indochina: International force proposed for Indochina - The Commanding General of French forces in North Vietnam, General Alessandri, has informed U.S. Consulate Hanoi of his personal hope that a U.N. international force, such as that in Korea, may be made available for use against the Viet Minh in Indochina. Alessandri admitted that Korea was 'politically different,' but said that Chinese Communist assistance to the Viet Minh paralleled the Korean situation. He added that ten additional battalions in North Vietnam would allow him to 'thumb his nose' at the Viet Minh but that, without these additional troops, he must keep his own main force in the delta area and risk the possibility that the increasingly strong insurgents may 'spill across the Red River' into the region of Annam and the associated state of Laos.
Indonesia: Government attacks Ambon insurgents - The U.S. representative on the U.N. Commission for Indonesia (U.N.C.I.) reports the abandonment of Indonesian efforts to achieve a peace solution to the Ambon uprising. Indonesian troops reportedly attacked Ambon on September twenty-ninth and landed additional forces on October first and second. Although Indonesian Government officials have not confirmed the attack, Foreign Minister Rum has told U.S. Ambassador Cochran that 'military action against Ambon had been recommended.' Rum, in an effort to explain his government's rejection of U.N.C.I. good offices in settlement of the insurrection, expressed the opinion that involvement of a United Nations group in the dispute would 'encourage' 'the rebellious parties' and 'could even do unpredictable harm.'"
This is what the public record looks like at its most ordinary.
storyflo.com and archive.org/download/us-china-intel-CI00501/CI00501_djvu.txt
