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With just 26 days left before the 2026 midterms, Democrats now have a better than 50% chance of sweeping to the majorities in the House and Senate, according to the forecast model.
That was the big headline out of my now-weekly chat with , a data scientist who maintains the organization’s election model, and , the chief election analyst at .
The three of us also talked through the increasing odds that Democrats win the Senate and what the DDHQ model has to say about the Texas Senate race, the South Carolina Senate contest and a slew of other races!
You can (and should) check out the Forecast Model here. And go to votes.decisiondeskhq.com to see ALL of the election data and sign up for “Votes Pro” — the MUST-HAVE election dashboard for true political junkies.
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro and overall forecast situation
8:55 What if the polls are wrong?
13:26 The perfect tool for Election Night
17:02 Kansas Senate
21:00 South Carolina Senate
23:05 Arkansas Senate
24:50 Florida Governor
27:17 Texas Governor
29:19 Texas Railroad Commissioner
33:02 The forecast toplines
