Morning all. With 4 weeks to go all the data is pointing to a good election for us. We’ve seen it in the overperformances in special, local, and state elections of all kinds in states all across the country since early last year. We’ve seen it in the heightened Democratic performance in the primary vote in state after state throughout 2026. We’ve seen it in the many, many Republican retirements from the Senate and House this year. We’ve seen it in the voter registration data from the past few months. We are seeing it in the national polls, battleground state polls, the generic ballot polls, and are starting to see it in the early Early Vote data too. We are seeing it in the lowest consumer sentiment readings we’ve seen in 65 years. We are seeing it in how Rs are already abandoning battleground states and districts that Trump won in 2024, and we are seeing in the panicky on-the- record and blind quotes we are seeing from Republicans in story and after story, day after day after day.
My main point to this morning is that there is a mountain of data, from all sorts of sources, all pointing in the same direction my friends - that it is going to be a good election for us, and a bad election for them - without any really serious outliers or challenging data that you can point too.
We got more affirming data and events this morning. Here’s a big one - the venerable Gallup quarterly Party ID series dropped this am. It has Dems up 50%-39% in the third quarter of 2026, fully 15 points higher than q4 of 2024. Just look at the trend lines of this graph (!!!!!), and note that we are just below our highest mark in the last 35 years:
A new high-quality Marist poll has Troy Jackson ahead and over 50% in Maine, and the fundamentals there really favoring us:
What we are seeing in the early Early Vote so far is exactly what we thought we would see in the data - Democrats running ahead of 2022 and 2024:
As we start diving into the Early Vote data in the coming weeks always keep in mind that the unaffiliated or independent category will be running much more Democratic this year than 2022 or 2024, so the Dem advantage will be even greater than the Dem/GOP numbers we will see each day.
Trump’s campaign stop in Nebraska yesterday is further confirmation of just how much trouble Republicans are in now. First, that Trump was campaigning the final month in a state he won by 20% points and Senator Pete Ricketts won by 25%* just two years ago* is astonishing. But also yesterday Trump reminded us that in his desperation, in his addled and incoherent state, that he is likely to say and do things that will further drive the electorate away from Republicans. For while we see how awful, depraved, and insane he is every day most Americans do not see it; and they are not going to like what they see.
In his Nebraska rally Trump implied he would be OK with Iran “taking out” two of the largest cities in America:
And he has ended his illegal ad campaign for closing out the election by breaking laws and cheating is not going to play well with voters:
Finally that quote in today’s headline comes from our ass-kicking friend NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton in an email she sent to supporters today. It is going to become one our closing mantas here at Hopium:
“Elections are decided in November, but they’re won in October”
And we win it in October by driving the early vote through the roof, running up the score, and kicking their ass every day all over the country:
Yes, my friends, it is that time! Time to go….
Three things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Wednesday, Oct 7th at 10pm ET.Email photos of your electoral work or physical act of voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com or via links on our daily chat. We want to start showcasing them here on Hopium.
**Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,553,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates |This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,312,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal | Watch interviews with all six Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle, and we need with everything we got to win all six.
**Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $599,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A reminder that the maximum that a donor can contribute to any Federal candidate for the general election is $3,500, however that money is donated.
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $96,200 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Winning Alaska (New) - Donate | $14,700 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $47,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $60,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $94,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $73,700 raised, $200,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $218,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $36,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $690,100 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below.
Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
