No serious person with any understanding of campaigns and election fundamentals thinks the GOP is going to have a good night tonight. The question is how bad a night the GOP has. I remain hopeful it will not be as bad as most Republicans with deep inside knowledge believe it will be.
In 2020, Republicans worried they would lose Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. Republicans were behind Democrats or tied with them in the polls, and the anti-Trump sentiment flowing through the country was real. The GOP won them all.
Those seats are on the ballot again today. This year, I expect the GOP will lose North Carolina and, here at the end based on early voting data, Texas, but I expect Republicans to hold on to the rest and keep control of the United States Senate. I would not be surprised if they are able to flip the Michigan Senate seat. I have thought the GOP would lose Ohio, but have become convinced they can save it. Many, many people with more knowledge of the situation tell me Kansas is toast for the GOP. I’ll believe it when I see it. I have long thought Ken Paxton would ultimately pull it off in Texas, but the early voting there and conversations with Republican strategists there lead me to believe my optimism to salvage the seat was misguided.
Still, I think we keep the Senate.
The House, I believe, is lost. I expect Republicans to lose around 25 seats. Unfortunately, many Republican strategists are telling me Democrats have turned out like it is a presidential election year, but the GOP has turned out for a midterm. In other words, the GOP is simply not turning out at the rate Democrats are. Part of that is the nature of the GOP’s current coalition of working-class voters who tend not to vote in midterms. But part of it is that the GOP has spent a year catering to the concerns of the hardest of its hard-core voters and alienated a large portion of Republican-leaning independents.
Perhaps Republican turnout will surge enough today to offset the early voting deficits. That happened in Georgia in 2022, and it was enough to save every statewide Republican candidate except the Senate candidate, Herschel Walker. I hope the same thing happens again today.
In Texas, statewide Republicans spent the weekend assessing the early vote, and they are fearful of disaster. In the mid-nineties, George W. Bush and Karl Rove wrested control of Texas away from more than a century of Democratic dominance. Today, those men are anathema to the Texas Republican Party and the MAGA base. Sometime around 10pm ET tonight, we will have a sense of whether the Republicans who rejected Bush and Rove’s formula for success in Texas can hold together what those men built.
In Georgia, it will take a historic turnout of Republicans to spare the state Keisha Lance Bottoms as Governor. The experts are not wrong. Georgia has seen a massive uptick in Democrat votes in urban enclaves. I remain hopeful that, because of her tenure as mayor, many of those voters will still vote for Rick Jackson for Governor.
I will be on the radio live today from noon to 3pm ET, and I will be doing various media hits throughout the night as the results come in. It will not be a good night for the GOP, but I expect it will not be the massive disaster many others fear. If that disaster does come to pass, however, an honest assessment will be needed, and I do not think the present Republican establishment, from President Trump to Vice President Vance to the RNC, will be able to honestly provide it.
Today, as many of the President’s supporters insist the party should not change course, we’re going to need to see if the new GOP can do what the old GOP did — keep Texas and Georgia. If not, what exactly is the point?
