Morning all. The big news today is that we are now only three weeks till Election Day, and that over the next week more than twenty states will turn on early in person. Very soon tens of millions of Americans will soon be voting all across the country. Some very important states start voting this week - Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, Iowa, and North Carolina. So away we go, people!
Let’s recall what Anderson Clayton told us last week:
Here’s what I wrote to you a few months ago about why we must all now be doing everything we possibly can to drive the early vote, run up the score, and win the election in October:
Our elections have changed a lot in recent years. Most voters can now vote early in person or with no-excuse mail/drop box ballots. This has made it far easier for people to vote which is one reason we’ve seen such a big increase in turnout in recent years. It also has forced our campaigns to move away from Election Day-focused Get-Out-The-Vote programs, and begin our work to get our folks to vote much earlier. Our Election Day is now as Tom Bonier calls it “just the last day of voting.”
This new early vote electoral system is important for Democrats, who traditionally have more episodic and new voters in our coalition. This extra time to do GOTV allows us, if we have the money and the volunteers, to reach down and touch voters less likely to vote than we could in the past, and this increases our turnout and helps us win.
Practically, the faster our voters vote the quicker our campaigns can reach and turnout these less likely voters. Every night campaigns get the list of people who voted that day, so when you vote early you come off the campaign GOTV rolls (and you stop getting canvassed and called!!!!) allowing the campaign to move on to other people who have not voted yet. So having our voters vote as early as possible, on Day 1 as a I call it, is something that increases turnout for us and helps us win.
All of this is why I want to encourage everyone in the Hopium community to become an advocate for Voting Early/Voting On Day 1. Make sure you do it yourself. Educate your networks about why it matters.
Voting on Day 1 has other benefits. A heavy early turnout leads to stories about “hey everyone is voting” putting social pressure on people to go vote, which also increases turnout. Voting early in big numbers also becomes a very public affirmation that our democracy and election system is working as intended, which creates a greater incentive for people to vote and makes it far harder for the Republicans to cheat, disrupt or contest the election.
As we’ve said here driving the early vote makes it more likely we win and harder for them to cheat. So pedal to the metal this week everyone!
While it is still very early there are three states where we are clearly seeing very strong and promising Dem performance in the early vote so far.
Nebraska
2022 D+3 | 2026 D+17
New Jersey
Overall vote tracking 2022
2022 D+38 | 2026 D+48
In NJ CD-7 Rebecca Bennett’s team is off to a very good start:
2022 D+23 | 2026 D+33
Ohio
Overall vote running ahead of 2022
2022 Even | 2026 D+13
Last week national Republican groups began the official crap election triage process and pulled their advertising from the Georgia and North Carolina Senate races, redirecting their dollars to Kansas and other battleground states (yes Kansas is officially part of the battleground!). Today the NYT is reporting (gift link) national Republican groups have now pulled out of three House districts they currently hold - IA-1 (Christina Bohannan), NJ-7 (Rebecca Bennett), and NE-2 (Denise Powell) - and have also pulled advertising from Dem seats they were trying to flip in MI-8 (McDonald Rivet) and OH-1 (Landsman). The story also reports that these House aligned GOP SuperPACs are moving money to defend incumbents in many states we are playing hard in right now including CA-22 (Villegas), CO-8 (Rutinel), MI-10 (Hines), VA-2 (Luria), and SC-01 (Lacore).
Other stories we are tracking this morning….
Here’s a remarkable new chart from Gallup:
Here’s the lead story on The Guardian right now:
The new White House Press Secretary is a dangerous conspiracy theorist and deeply unfit for this important job. More on Trump’s escalating attempts to sell out Ukraine, Europe, and America itself in tomorrows post (not forgetting, but ran out of room today).
Finally, while I am not a fan of polling averages as a way of understanding a race (due to the flood of GOP polls this fall) here are the averages Republicans are seeing on Real Clear Politics, their data site. It shows the Dems flipping the Senate even with dozens and dozens of bullshit right-aligned polls:
Yes, my friends, it is that time……time to go……
Two things you can do today in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Wednesday, Oct 14th at 8pm ET.
*To make sure campaigns and state parties can put your contribution to strategic use in these closing days please make all your donations by Sunday, October 25th. * Contributions that come after that date are welcome but are harder to use strategically.
**Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,602,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,426,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our seven candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). This is the team that is going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $625,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A reminder that the maximum that a donor can contribute to any Federal candidate for the general election is $3,500, however that money is donated.
Winning Alaska - Donate | $20,200 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $56,800 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $66,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $103,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $80,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $234,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $41,900 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $699,700 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $105,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground. Friends - we have hit our goal here - thank you!
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below.
Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
