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If you’re like most Americans right now, you’re doom-scrolling the economy between doom-scrolling the war, and that is not sustainable. Gas prices. Grocery prices. Health care costs. Everything seems to be rising — and the official line is that everything is fine.
So we wanted to start with some clarity, from a steady voice of calm.
I spoke with Kyla Scanlon, an economics communicator and author of the book, In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work. Kyla coined the term “vibecession” before most economists would acknowledge it was real. She was early then. She’s clear-eyed now. In this conversation, she breaks down:
The disconnect between the stock market and the real economy
Why markets can surge on AI spending when so many people are still getting crushed by childcare, healthcare, housing, and elder care.
AI’s circular financing, and the hype driving this boom. (Spoiler: the same companies bankrolling AI are also its biggest customers. It's a circle — and that's what has some analysts nervous.)
The bond market — the plumbing of the global economy. Most people don’t think about plumbing until something goes wrong. Kyla explains why we should pay attention now.
Why Gen Z is turning to prediction markets and sports betting. Given the economy they inherited, Kyla argues that’s rational.
Big picture: She says we are no longer in a vibecession. The new worry is the inverse: a softening economy that’s quietly getting worse, with plenty of official cheerleading telling you everything is fine.
She is calm about it. You can be too.
One note: we recorded this before the Iran conflict began. Some of the warning signs Kyla flagged have since gotten worse. The Strait of Hormuz — which carries a fifth of the world’s oil — is now effectively closed. The bond market is watching. And this conversation should help you understand why that matters.
Also find Kyla’s substack here.
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