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It’s hard to find a thinking person at this point who believes the midterm elections in 21(!) days will be anything short of good for Democrats.
The real question now is: How good?
The generic ballot, according to ’s polling average has Democrats with an almost nine-point edge.
𝕏Gallup’s latest party identification polling — when leaners are pushed to one of the two major parties — has Democrats up 50% to 39% over Republicans.
’s “named Congressional ballot” — more on that here — has Democrats over-performing presidential baselines in House districts all over the country by an average of 11 points.
and I broke down our own thoughts on whether this is a D+6 environment, a D+12 or even a D+more — and what each would mean for the seat gains in the House and Senate in three weeks time. You can find a full rundown of the show below!
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Timeline
0:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it
06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame & the GOP’s stages of grief
12:00 Musk’s $276 million and who should control a megaphone
18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave?
22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas
30:00 52, 54, and the most mispriced race
36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do
41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and 8 articles waiting
46:00 The televised execution
50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol
54:00 Brewers-Dodgers and why Milwaukee keeps doing this
1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guy
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