Greetings all. Sending along a recording of the live conversation I had with our good friend and data guy Tom Bonier from earlier today. This discussion is a wide-ranging and timely look at the growing problem of partisan and illicit actors manipulating polling and the prediction markets and our understanding of our elections themselves. Understanding how polling and prediction markets can be manipulated to influence election outcomes is a central part of our work at in our Evolving Battlefield Project, and has been central to Hopium’s work since we launched in March of 2023.
I encourage you to watch or listen to our discussion as soon as you can.
Some background……
Here’s a NYT headline and story from Saturday:
Here’s Trump social media post from yesterday confirming that they view the use of manipulated polling to be an effective demobilization tool:
The aggressive gaming/manipulation of polling for partisan ends began in earnest in 2022 with the successful effort by right-wing entities to create the false impression that a red wave was coming. These “flood the zone” tactics expanded in the 2024 cycle; were deployed again in the NJ Gov’s race in 2025; and in the Hungarian election earlier this year.
Here’s what the NYT wrote in its long investigative piece into how the Rs manufactured the false red wave narrative in 2022:
The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets.
This fall Republicans are likely to try to use these tactics to make it look like they are winning in key battleground Senate races where they currently trail. Perception of “winning” helps candidates gain momentum particularly with low-political information voters, and if there is an universe of Republican polling showing their candidates ahead this data will be used to by Trump to buttress his “rigging” arguments if we in fact prevail and flip the Senate. While we have not yet seen a lot of illicit polling in Senate battleground races we are starting to see an uptick in partisan, right-aligned polls in the Georgia Governor’s race.
Here’s the summary of the polling in the right’s campaign to influence the election narrative in the New Jersey Governor’s race last year. Note 1) that in the final weeks of the election the final six right-aligned pollsters had it on average a one point race. Sherrill won by 14 points 2) how the right-aligned pollsters “herded” around a common set of data and narrative, ones completely at odds with the independent polls in the election (this is what happened in 2022 too).
We saw similar tactics in Hungary this spring, even seeing two polls from a top MAGA pollster, McLaughlin & Associates. McLaughlin’s “polling miss” was 34 points:
Finally, we discuss the need for their to be a formal certification process to prove that any poll covered by the news media has actually been conducted. For as the young man, Rahil Prakash, showed us last week it is far cheaper and easier to make up polls using AI than to pay tens of thousands to produce a high quality product.
Check out this timely new conversation about one set of illicit tactics in our new political battlefield, hit like so more will see it, share with others who might be interested, and keep working hard everyone. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together - Simon
Additional Reading
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed A False Election Narrative- NYTWhy Polling Chaos Could Create Big Problems for American Politics- NYTTrump’s Incredible Meltdown, Rigging Elections, And The “Majority Illusion”- Hopium“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?- TNRWebsite behind widely shared fake election polls run by 21-year-old- The GuardianHow to rig a polling average- G. Elliott Morris
Tom Bonier is a veteran Democratic political strategist and TargetSmart’s Chief Executive Officer. Prior to TargetSmart, Tom co-founded Clarity Campaign Labs in 2012 and helped build it into one of the nation’s leading Democratic analytics and research firms. He has spent more than 20 years working in Democratic and progressive politics. Prior to Clarity, Bonier served as Chief Operating Officer at the National Committee for an Effective Congress (NCEC). Throughout his career, Bonier has received numerous awards for his contributions to political campaigning, redistricting, and strategic planning. He has also appeared as a commentator for multiple publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Politico, as well as on-air on “News Hour” on PBS and “All Things Considered” on National Public Radio.
