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**“There’s nothing so passionate as a vested interest disguised as an intellectual conviction.” ~Sean O’Casey****Things are going swimmingly as the NY Mets lose their 12th in a row and now are tied for the worst record in baseball. NFL draft tomorrow night, which means I can be in mourning for them screwing that up by Friday morning.**AND it's friggin freezing outside at the end of April!
** In MLB History, of the 132 teams that have had a 12 game losing streak....ZERO have made the playoffs! So at least I will not have to watch baseball and get my hopes up.**
I was watching the Netflix documentary
*The Five Families,and I was reminded-again- of the importance of framing. When looking at and trying to understand the actions and activities of the current Administration, I believe one would be well served by watching this documentary ( orThe Godfather).*Trump ‘made his bones’ in the NYC real estate/construction industry in the 70s and 80s, a period during which the mafia was overtly involved in many industries in the city. According to multiple reports at the time, Trump took advantage of this through deals and relationships. Trump Tower was one of the first major Manhattan skyscrapers built with reinforced concrete instead of steel. Reporting from multiple outlets and federal records indicates that Trump Tower and Trump Plaza used concrete supplied by S&A Concrete, a major ready‑mix supplier in New York during the period when Trump Tower (built 1979–1983) and Trump Plaza were constructed. S&A Concrete was secretly owned by Anthony “Fat Tony” Salerno (Genovese family) and Paul Castellano (Gambino family). During the early 1980s, concrete workers’ strikes in New York,
Trump Tower’s construction continued while many other major projects were shut down. Multiple investigative reports note that Trump’s project was effectivelyexemptfrom the strike’s impact because of his relationship with union leader John Cody, who was later identified as a mob associate.The formative years left a mark, and we can see it in his approach to politics and geopolitics. One can plausibly argue that everything is viewed through the prism of the NYC organized crime family paradigm; there are heads of families, and beneath them, a power hierarchy all ultimately reporting back to the top. Members of the family are protected as long as they pay obeisance and give a share to the head of the family, traitors are the ultimate betrayal and dealt with harshly, and everything is a zero-sum game; ultimately power-sharing is a necessary evil on the road to becoming
Capo di tutti capi.
To wit:
Domestically, the two parties and the three branches of government are ‘different families’; the Democrats, the Congress, and the Judiciary
are thus seen as antagonists, to be cooperated with only when necessary to advance one’s own goals. Power and influence are all that matter.In this view, there are 3 geopolitical ‘families’; the US, Russia, and China; therefore, respect need only be given to the two other familial heads, Putin and XI,
and no one else. All others are seen as ‘in’ one of the families and therefore subordinate, and expected to be subservient. NATO leaders are not peers, but under-bosses. ALL of the Americas is ‘our turf’. If the head of the family wants something currently owned/run by an underboss (Greenland, venezuela), he expects to be given it, or a price will be paid. Swiss leader speaks ‘harshly’? raise the tariff. Receieve a tribute of gold, lower it. Read the bleat about Tim Cook. Look at the ‘vig’ demanded from US Steel, Intel, and Nvidia. Look at the recent comments from Trump about ‘remembering’ who asked for tariff refunds.In this worldview, power is all that matters; to quote Stephen Miller, “
*The world is governed by strength. The world is governed by force. The world is governed by power.”*In such a world, acquiescence to power does not make sense; its just a matter of how much needs to be expended. Make extreme threats, turn up the heat, and eventually you will get what you want. DOJ investigations, frivolous lawsuits, massive tariffs and aid cutoffs- all arrows in the quiver.Thinking about Trump’s reaction to NATO’s not supporting the war in Iran, I was reminded of the opening scene in The Godfather, when Vito Corleone meets with the Nazorine, the baker. Vito grants the baker his request (he supplies him with ‘military aid and weapons’ in the real-world comp), but says: ‘“
Someday, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me.” , with the understanding that the service will be performed**without question.**How then could NATO not jump to do his bidding?Iran’s religious, millennial government, then, is totally alien to this paradigm. Driven by what they see as a ‘higher calling,’ the usual levers of power have a much more limited impact. There are multiple reports of the Administration being baffled by the lack of expected acquiescence, and this explains it.
Missteps and faulty assumptions have now led us to this point; Iran has lost tactically and militarily, and clearly, continued regime existence is an open question, but its control of the Strait of Hormuz ( with its MASSIVE economic ramifications) and continued ability to inflict significant damage on the infrastructure of neighboring countries give it at least an equal position in any negotiation. In fact, one would reasonably posit that, as an authoritarian regime, the Iranian government has more staying power than the rest of the world; we shall see shortly as supply constraints and destruction begin to take hold in major developed economies.
Does anyone believe Trump extended the ceasefire because the
asked him to?? Especially after learning that the US wrote the last ‘Pakistani request’ for them?PakistanisEvery time I read the ‘ok, this time we WILL destroy your whole civilization, ' I think of this
Geopolitical Realignment Accelerating: Japan’s arms export policy shift, Hungary’s political upheaval, and China’s debt relief calls signal major strategic repositioning amid the Iran conflict and broader great power competition. Geopolitical premium is morphing into a broader repricing of inflation expectations and growth outlooks, with cross-asset correlations breaking down as traditional safe havens like Bitcoin rally alongside risk assets while precious metals dump.
Global markets showed mixed performance . In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.2% in morning trading . France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1% and Germany’s DAX rose 0.4% . The FTSE 100 lost 0.1% . Asian stocks declined, snapping a two-day win streak, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping as much as 0.8% . Hong Kong led losses around the region .
Energy markets remain volatile. Brent crude briefly climbed above $100 a barrel and was trading at $99.83, up 1.4% . West Texas Intermediate futures were 1.6% higher at $91.09 . Two ships came under fire near the Strait of Hormuz just hours after Trump’s ceasefire extension .
Geopolitics
President Trump indefinitely extended the US ceasefire with Iran just hours before hostilities were set to resume . Trump credited a request from mediator Pakistan and stressed the need to give Iran’s “fractured” leadership time to form a proposal . He had previously indicated he would not extend the ceasefire and warned of immediate resumption of bombing.
An aide to Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of a “ploy to buy time” . Peace talks which were expected this week appear to be in a state of limbo and broke down before they could even begin .
Indefinite ceasefire extension fails to ease supply disruption fears, with Brent crude briefly breaching $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a cargo ship attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz
Investor optimism has been building since the truce was announced two weeks ago, with MSCI’s global gauge up about 7% and AI-themed benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan rallying more than 13% .
Japan scrapped long-standing restrictions on arms exports in a major break with its post-war pacifist policy . The plans could clear the way for sales of lethal equipment that had long been banned and prompted expressions of “serious concern” from Beijing .
Jefferies maintains its call for two rate cuts from the Fed . Danske Bank analysts expect two additional rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points in September and December, which is more than markets are currently expecting . Money markets currently price in only 9 basis points of rate cuts for 2026 .
Amazon announced it will invest an extra $5 billion in Anthropic, building on a partnership started in 2023 with an initial $4 billion investment . Anthropic agreed to spend more than $100 billion over the life of the partnership . Amazon shares jumped 2.8% in premarket
Trump is weighing an extension of a maritime shipping waiver that has made it easier to move oil and gasoline between US ports .
SYF CFO said higher gas prices haven’t curbed consumer spending . The average transaction value for gas climbed 17% between February and March .
Something to keep an eye on-Indonesia will permit China to issue sovereign bonds in its domestic market . Indonesia is also planning debt instrument issuances in China .
BBG: Oil Shock Pushes Thailand to Rework Budget to Hold Deficit: Thailand is reshuffling state spending to cushion the impact of an oil shock while keeping its deficit target intact, highlighting the strain the Middle East conflict is placing on public finances.
A few big commodity houses are flagging mounting dislocation beneath the surface of the Iran shock. Mercuria warns the fallout will extend well beyond the conflict itself, with a wave of commercial and legal disputes likely once normal trade resumes. Vitol signals a tougher trading backdrop, expecting lower profits and a challenging start to 2026, pointing to disrupted flows and tougher conditions. Meanwhile, Gunvor takes a more bullish supply view, arguing the oil market is underpricing the scale of Iranian disruption.
Bitcoin jumped to an 11-week high of $78,023, rising 3.6% alongside equities after Trump’s ceasefire extension, with the cryptocurrency’s Coinbase premium index posting its longest bullish streak since October’s record high of $126,000; contradicts the “digital gold” narrative, as Bitcoin rallied with risk assets rather than acting as a safe haven, though it has outperformed gold by 22 percentage points since the Iran conflict began.
Mutual funds continue to struggle on relative basis
Sharp drop in realized volatility has triggered massive buying from risk parity premium and vol control funds
Momentum still ruling the roost
Quality vs momentum
Fins performance vs other sectors
‘Anthropic’s Mythos Model Is Being Accessed by Unauthorized Users’
(bbrg)‘Trump Backtracks and Extends Iran Truce With Talks in Limbo ‘
(bbrg)IRAN’S IRGC TRANSFERRED SEIZED SHIPS TO IRAN’S COAST: TASNIM
‘Iran Tankers Go Dark to Sail Past US Blockade Laden With Oil’
(bbrg)‘Solomon Quips US Recession Risk Could Be ‘One Tweet Away’’
(bbrg)
