Scott Colom led Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 65 votes in Mississippi on Wednesday, with about 44,000 ballots left to count, and NBC News called the race too close to call. Scott MacFarlane of MacFarlane Reports told The Fivestack last week that Democrats putting money into Mississippi meant "they're seeing something polls can't show." On Wednesday he said he would bet "a good chunk" on Colom, who would be the state's first Black senator since Reconstruction.
It was the one close race of a night Democrats won by wide margins, and Donald Trump has already said how he will handle the Congress it built. Democrats "can send over, you know, 50 different great bills," he told The New York Times, "and I send them back with a nice stamp, 'veto.'" MacFarlane said he has yet to find a Democrat who believes Trump will work with them.
Democrats cannot override a veto, and their subpoenas start in January. Before then, government funding runs out Dec. 11, the defense and farm bills need votes, and Trump wants the debt limit lifted before Democrats are seated. Every one of those votes runs through Republicans he spent the year purging.
Thomas Massie lost his primary and returns to the House the week of Nov. 9 with eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. MacFarlane said the House has to vote on them, and if a House with 260 Democrats takes them up, Hegseth is "toast." The Senate would then need two-thirds to convict. Trump said Wednesday that Hegseth is "doing a very good job." Brian Fitzpatrick, who voted twice to end the Iran war, lost his seat. John Cornyn lost his runoff to Ken Paxton, who then lost Texas. All of them vote until Jan. 3. Sherrod Brown won a special election, so he can be sworn in once Ohio certifies, and the lame-duck Senate goes to 52-48.
House Republicans also need a leader. MacFarlane said Speaker Mike Johnson cannot stay on after a loss that bad, and the choice between Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise decides whether the party stays in lockstep with Trump or looks for a deal. Republicans who might vote with Democrats to lower prices, he said, have to trust that Trump won't "wake up crabby one morning" and throw them under the bus.
Ron DeSantis called the night "close to an extinction level event for Republicans." MacFarlane said it already was one for moderates: all three House Republicans from districts Kamala Harris won in 2024 are gone, and so is the last House Republican who voted to impeach Trump over Jan. 6.
The veto protects Trump from the new Congress. His December runs through the old one, and the Republicans who decide it are the ones he drove out.
Sources
Scott MacFarlane on The Fivestack, Oct. 30 and Nov. 4, 2026
NBC News, Mississippi Senate count, Nov. 4
The New York Times, Trump interview, Nov. 4
Trump remarks at the White House ballroom site, Nov. 4
