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Ten days out, the political environment, the polling and the prediction markets all look good-to-very-good for Democrats.
It’s not surprising then that the Forecast model continues to tilt better and better for not just a Democratic House but a Democratic sweep.
I talked to , a data scientist at DDHQ who maintains the model, and , DDHQ’s chief elections analyst, about the state of the overall fight for national control as well as a slew of individual Senate races, House contests and a few governor’s races as well!
Scroll to the bottom of this post for a timeline of what we talked about when!
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Timeline (generated by AI)
0:00 Introductions and how DDHQ’s forecast works
3:00 National outlook: Democrats’ chances of winning the House and Senate
6:30 Why DDHQ is more cautious about the House than prediction markets
10:00 New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas vs. John Sununu
13:30 Independent Senate challengers in Idaho, Montana and South Dakota
18:00 Nebraska Senate: Can Dan Osborn beat Pete Ricketts?
20:30 Kansas Senate: Adam Hamilton’s challenge to Roger Marshall
26:00 Kentucky’s 6th District: An early election-night bellwether
30:00 How the model weights fundamentals, polling and prediction markets
34:00 Polling blind spots: Too much Texas Senate, too little House polling
37:00 Pennsylvania’s 10th: Scott Perry vs. Janelle Stelson
41:00 Pennsylvania’s 1st: Can Brian Fitzpatrick survive a Democratic wave?
44:00 How models account for waves, incumbency and polling errors
49:00 Washington’s 3rd: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
52:30 Oregon governor: Why Tina Kotek faces a competitive race
56:30 Forecasting blind spots, candidate quality and a baseball detour
62:00 Virginia’s 2nd, 1st and 5th: Measuring the size of a Democratic night
66:00 Final forecast updates, DDHQ’s election-night tools and wrap-up
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