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I just flew in from Kansas City…
…and boy are my arms tired.
I mean, I am a dad. So I feel like I am entitled to tell dad jokes.
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Q: What are the odds Democrats will take the Senate this election?
A: Better than they have been at any point in this election cycle.
The model shows the fight for the Senate majority to be, basically, a coin flip at this point:
The prediction markets have it similarly close. Here’s , which does not sponsor this post but does sponsor some of my content:
The facts are these: Of the six races rated as “toss ups” by the , five (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas) are currently held by Republicans. A sixth GOP seat — North Carolina — is rated as “lean Democrat.”
So, of the closest races, the VAST majority of them are held by Republicans. They simply have more exposure than Democrats who, really, only have one seat in real jeopardy (Michigan) and two others (New Hampshire and Minnesota) at the margins of competitiveness.
Combine that fact with the signs of a significant wind blowing in Democrats’ direction nationally and you get a toss-up fight for the Senate majority.
Q: So what are your thoughts regarding the Missouri redrawn congressional map and the Supreme Court’s ruling. Maybe Missouri isn’t quite as red as thought? The GOP is running here like they have already won but there are some angry voters.
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