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Happy Friday.
We made it.
After spending last weekend driving up and down the east coast for soccer, I am very much looking forward to doing a whole lot of nothing this weekend.
And don’t forget: You can get a free month of my friend Leland Vittert’s Substack simply by clicking on this link!
As always, these are real questions from real paid subscribers to this newsletter.
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Q: I understand that the Democrats beating Susan Collins would make a Senate takeover easier for the Senate, but can you see a path where Collins wins and the Republicans still lose four seats (Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Kansas)?
A: Sure.
But I think it isn’t very likely — and here’s why.
For Democrats to win Iowa and Kansas — to pick two states —they need a national political environment that is very tilted toward them. Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932 for Pete’s sake!
So, if Josh Turek and Adam Hamilton win, it means that the wind is blowing hard at their back. I struggle to see how that is the case and Susan Collins somehow manages to win in a state that Kamala Harris won by seven points in 2024.
What I think is more likely is if Republicans win Iowa and Kansas and Maine and lose Texas. Because Texas is its own animal due to Ken Paxton’s problems — and may operate slightly independently of the broader national political environment.
Q: How likely is it that, at least in the Senate, this is a “blue mirage.” I see the data, I hear the commentary and there is clearly something happening. But could it just be the gap closing in a series of states (Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas) that are just too red to flip in a single election.
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